本文關(guān)鍵詞： 債務(wù)管理 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué) 數(shù)值模擬 敏感性分析　出處：《貴州財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：2010年以來,隨著地方政府債務(wù)規(guī)模的高速增長,地方政府債務(wù)率和逾期債務(wù)率也水漲船高。為了解決地方政府債務(wù)高速增長的問題,2015年新預(yù)算法出臺,規(guī)定了地方政府不能從融資平臺舉借債務(wù),只能通過發(fā)行債券進行融資,且中央政府實行不救助原則。本文在此背景下,以地方政府債務(wù)管理為出發(fā)點,建立債務(wù)管理系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型研究了地方政府債務(wù)融資問題。主要研究成果和結(jié)論如下:第一、針對現(xiàn)有債務(wù)預(yù)測模型的局限性,建立了債務(wù)管理系統(tǒng)的動態(tài)預(yù)測模型。在政府債務(wù)管理的過程中,以促進政府的健康和可持續(xù)發(fā)展為目標,通過債務(wù)管理系統(tǒng)的抽象和假設(shè),建立了系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)方程,對政府債務(wù)的規(guī)模、債務(wù)率、債券融資進行預(yù)測。通過建立一個系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,對政府債務(wù)管理進行模擬,對政府未來的債務(wù)規(guī)模、債務(wù)率和債務(wù)融資進行預(yù)測,將政府債務(wù)管理中存在的問題以債務(wù)預(yù)測的形式呈現(xiàn)出來。借助于計算機的運算能力,在任何一個時間點上的任何一個指標的數(shù)值都能被模擬出來,并且可以任意改變初值和參數(shù)來動態(tài)地監(jiān)控地方政府債務(wù)系統(tǒng)的運行情況。第二、以貴州省為例,對債務(wù)管理系統(tǒng)動態(tài)預(yù)測模型進行了穩(wěn)健性檢驗,同時進行敏感性分析,通過分析得出結(jié)論:GDP增長率和財政收入增長率均對債務(wù)率有著負向的影響且較為敏感,長期債券占比和財政支出增長率對債務(wù)率有著正向的影響但并不敏感。因此,本文的政策含義是,為了防范債務(wù)風(fēng)險,首要的措施是大力發(fā)展經(jīng)濟,獲取更多財政收入。其次的措施是適度減少財政支出,發(fā)行較多比例的短期債券等。創(chuàng)新之處與應(yīng)用價值:以往的地方政府債務(wù)管理研究往往運用定性的、線性的或者靜態(tài)的方法來研究,使用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的方法,運用定量的,非線性的和動態(tài)的方法來研究地方政府債務(wù)管理,可能從方法層面豐富了已有文獻。此外,此前的研究往往借助于已有的模型和對已有模型的修改來研究債務(wù)管理問題,因此創(chuàng)建一個前所未有的債務(wù)管理系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型也是比較大的創(chuàng)新。地方政府不僅可以通過債務(wù)管理系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型來預(yù)測地方政府債務(wù)和債務(wù)率的變化趨勢,監(jiān)控債務(wù)率的數(shù)值使之在可以接受的范圍內(nèi),如果模型預(yù)測的債務(wù)率過高,政府可能需要考慮采取一些措施來防范債務(wù)危機。而且可以通過改變一些參數(shù)的數(shù)值,得到不同的數(shù)值模擬結(jié)果,來考察這些參數(shù)的改變對地方政府債務(wù)率的影響,從而選擇調(diào)控哪些變量來調(diào)控債務(wù)率,因此債務(wù)管理系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型有著一定的應(yīng)用價值。
[Abstract]:Since 2010, with the rapid growth of local government debt, the rate of local government debt and overdue debt is also rising. In order to solve the problem of rapid growth of local government debt. In 2015, the new budget law was issued, which stipulates that local government can not borrow debt from financing platform, only by issuing bonds to finance, and the central government implements the principle of no bailout. Based on the local government debt management, the dynamic model of debt management system is established to study the financing of local government debt. The main research results and conclusions are as follows: first. In view of the limitation of the existing debt forecasting model, the dynamic forecasting model of debt management system is established. In the process of government debt management, the goal is to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the government. Through the abstraction and hypothesis of debt management system, the system dynamics equation is established, and the scale of government debt, debt ratio and bond financing are forecasted, and a system dynamics model is established. The paper simulates the government debt management and forecasts the future debt size, debt ratio and debt financing of the government. The problems in government debt management are presented in the form of debt forecasting. With the help of computer computing power, the value of any index at any point in time can be simulated. And can arbitrarily change the initial values and parameters to dynamically monitor the operation of the local government debt system. Secondly, taking Guizhou province as an example, the dynamic prediction model of debt management system is tested for robustness. At the same time, through the sensitivity analysis, it is concluded that both the growth rate of GDP and the growth rate of fiscal revenue have a negative impact on the debt rate and are more sensitive. The ratio of long-term bonds and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure have a positive effect on the debt rate, but they are not sensitive. Therefore, the policy implication of this paper is that in order to prevent debt risk, the most important measure is to develop the economy vigorously. The second measure is to reduce fiscal expenditure moderately, issue a large proportion of short-term bonds and so on. Innovation and application value: the past local government debt management studies often use qualitative. Linear or static methods are used, systems dynamics are used, quantitative, nonlinear and dynamic methods are used to study local government debt management. In addition, previous studies often use existing models and modification of existing models to study debt management problems. Therefore, it is a great innovation to create an unprecedented dynamic model of debt management system. Local government can not only predict the changing trend of local government debt and debt ratio through the dynamic model of debt management system. . Monitor the value of the debt rate so that it is within an acceptable range if the model predicts an excessive debt rate. Governments may need to consider measures to prevent debt crises, and different numerical simulations can be obtained by changing the values of some parameters. In order to study the influence of these parameters on local government debt rate and choose which variables to control debt rate, the dynamic model of debt management system has certain application value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：貴州財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F812.5

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 馮明;;宏觀債務(wù)管理的政策框架及其結(jié)構(gòu)性去杠桿[J];改革;2016年07期

2 尹啟華;陳志斌;;國家治理視域下我國地方政府債務(wù)管理制度的演進及啟示[J];當代財經(jīng);2016年06期

3 何代欣;;結(jié)構(gòu)性改革下的赤字與債務(wù)管理:任務(wù)、問題與策略[J];金融評論;2016年02期

4 李畫;王穎;;加快推進政府債務(wù)置換 規(guī)范政府債務(wù)管理[J];經(jīng)濟研究參考;2016年17期

5 鄭潔;;地方政府性債務(wù)管理與風(fēng)險治理——基于新《預(yù)算法》施行的背景[J];宏觀經(jīng)濟研究;2015年12期

6 許云霄;;美國州、地方政府預(yù)算與政府債務(wù)管理[J];財政研究;2015年10期

7 晏俊;許薇;杜小偉;;美國地方政府債務(wù)管理的經(jīng)驗及其對我國的啟示[J];學(xué)習(xí)與實踐;2015年08期

8 熊愛宗;;公共債務(wù)管理:金融危機的挑戰(zhàn)與未來改革方向[J];國際金融研究;2015年08期

9 李婷婷;趙樹寬;戴志敏;;基于審計結(jié)果的地方政府性債務(wù)適度規(guī)模研究[J];審計研究;2015年03期

10 王俊;;地方政府債務(wù)的風(fēng)險成因、結(jié)構(gòu)與預(yù)警實證[J];中國經(jīng)濟問題;2015年02期

，

本文編號：1446243