本文關(guān)鍵詞：后冷戰(zhàn)時(shí)期美國(guó)東亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整研究　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：海權(quán)是指一個(gè)國(guó)家對(duì)海洋的控制力和影響力,在21世紀(jì)的大國(guó)海洋政治博弈中發(fā)揮著戰(zhàn)略性功能。在后冷戰(zhàn)時(shí)期,隨著東亞戰(zhàn)略地位的不斷上升,東亞海權(quán)的結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾日益突出,各國(guó)紛紛調(diào)整自身的海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略。在此背景下,美國(guó)持續(xù)強(qiáng)化東亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略的擴(kuò)張性調(diào)整,加劇了東亞海洋政治的復(fù)雜性、敏感性和脆弱性。美國(guó)東亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略的調(diào)整呈現(xiàn)出新取向:一是具有主動(dòng)性,依據(jù)外部環(huán)境變化主動(dòng)調(diào)整;二是具有擴(kuò)張性,不斷增加?xùn)|亞的戰(zhàn)略投入;三是具有引領(lǐng)性,竭力保持技術(shù)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì);四是具有靈活性,對(duì)新興大國(guó)采取既制衡又合作的復(fù)合型策略;五是具有不確定性,美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)利益集團(tuán)對(duì)東亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略的博弈日益復(fù)雜難測(cè)。美國(guó)的戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整反映了其對(duì)東亞海權(quán)的依賴度上升,同時(shí)對(duì)東亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略生態(tài)的結(jié)構(gòu)失衡出現(xiàn)了戰(zhàn)略焦慮。筆者主要運(yùn)用戰(zhàn)略行為歸因分析方法,解釋了后冷戰(zhàn)時(shí)期美國(guó)東亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略擴(kuò)張性調(diào)整的動(dòng)力來(lái)源問題。本文認(rèn)為,美國(guó)東亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略的擴(kuò)張性調(diào)整是其國(guó)內(nèi)外三維動(dòng)力相互交織、綜合作用的結(jié)果,國(guó)際權(quán)力結(jié)構(gòu)、國(guó)家身份需求以及外部不確定性為自變量,以美國(guó)東亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整為因變量,建立了戰(zhàn)略行為歸因分析的新框架,并提出了三個(gè)研究假設(shè):其一,霸權(quán)國(guó)的戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整是一種基于權(quán)力競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力驅(qū)動(dòng)的權(quán)力護(hù)持行為;其二,霸權(quán)國(guó)的戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整是一種基于身份需求增長(zhǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)的利益圈地行為;其三,霸權(quán)國(guó)的戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整是一種基于不確定性張力驅(qū)動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資行為。第一個(gè)假設(shè)強(qiáng)調(diào)霸權(quán)國(guó)的對(duì)外戰(zhàn)略行為是國(guó)際權(quán)力變遷的結(jié)果。國(guó)際權(quán)力的結(jié)構(gòu)變化是影響霸權(quán)國(guó)對(duì)外戰(zhàn)略的直接動(dòng)力,霸權(quán)國(guó)對(duì)國(guó)際權(quán)力結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)高度敏感,國(guó)際權(quán)力變化越大,霸權(quán)國(guó)的戰(zhàn)略壓力也就越大,其調(diào)整自身戰(zhàn)略行為的動(dòng)力也就越強(qiáng)大。在新科技革命、全球化和市場(chǎng)化浪潮的共同作用下,國(guó)際權(quán)力結(jié)構(gòu)出現(xiàn)變動(dòng),全球權(quán)力中心從大西洋向太平洋方向轉(zhuǎn)移,東亞成為世界權(quán)力增長(zhǎng)最快的地區(qū)。中國(guó)和平崛起使東亞形成了經(jīng)濟(jì)與安全中心相脫離的雙中心治理結(jié)構(gòu),中美兩國(guó)的國(guó)際公共產(chǎn)品供給競(jìng)爭(zhēng)日趨加劇,對(duì)東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)整合與安全結(jié)構(gòu)具有形塑作用。在海洋政治復(fù)雜性和碎片化的影響下,東亞各國(guó)致力于加快海軍現(xiàn)代化進(jìn)程,西太平洋海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略生態(tài)系統(tǒng)發(fā)生結(jié)構(gòu)性變化,區(qū)域海權(quán)關(guān)系出現(xiàn)重構(gòu)。在權(quán)力轉(zhuǎn)移時(shí)期,權(quán)力結(jié)構(gòu)的變遷對(duì)美國(guó)東亞的海洋霸權(quán)構(gòu)成了巨大的壓力,成為美國(guó)東亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整的外驅(qū)動(dòng)力。第二個(gè)假設(shè)強(qiáng)調(diào)霸權(quán)國(guó)的身份對(duì)其戰(zhàn)略行為具有塑造性。身份屬性影響著國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略利益的邊界劃定,霸權(quán)身份需求是影響霸權(quán)國(guó)戰(zhàn)略的內(nèi)在動(dòng)力,對(duì)霸權(quán)國(guó)戰(zhàn)略行為發(fā)揮激勵(lì)功能。當(dāng)國(guó)家產(chǎn)生身份依賴時(shí),霸權(quán)國(guó)的身份需求越強(qiáng)烈,戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整的內(nèi)在動(dòng)力也就越強(qiáng)大。美國(guó)是全球海洋主導(dǎo)國(guó),這種角色身份是其自身地理、歷史、理論、經(jīng)濟(jì)以及軍事等多種條件因素長(zhǎng)期共同塑造的。冷戰(zhàn)后美國(guó)的身份需求集中在權(quán)力需求、榮譽(yù)和威望需求、經(jīng)濟(jì)需求、安全需求以及意識(shí)形態(tài)需求等五個(gè)方面,并保持不斷增長(zhǎng)。身份需求的增長(zhǎng)推動(dòng)了美國(guó)東亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略的擴(kuò)張性調(diào)整,其戰(zhàn)略意圖是在軍事上確保制海權(quán)優(yōu)勢(shì),控制東亞的海洋戰(zhàn)略通道;經(jīng)濟(jì)上加速與東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)體互動(dòng),利用東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供動(dòng)力;政治上強(qiáng)化與東亞盟國(guó)、伙伴國(guó)的聯(lián)系,構(gòu)建以美國(guó)為核心的支點(diǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò),制衡新興大國(guó)崛起,壟斷海洋主導(dǎo)國(guó)地位,確保美國(guó)在東亞的海洋利益安全,其本質(zhì)是繼續(xù)利用有效海權(quán),維護(hù)其全球海洋主導(dǎo)國(guó)的海洋霸權(quán),實(shí)現(xiàn)自身身份需求的最大化。第三個(gè)假設(shè)強(qiáng)調(diào)外部不確定性對(duì)霸權(quán)國(guó)戰(zhàn)略行為的影響。不確定性是影響霸權(quán)國(guó)戰(zhàn)略行為的干擾性因素,具有雙重性:一方面它是風(fēng)險(xiǎn),可以產(chǎn)生巨大的安全張力,不確定性因素越多,霸權(quán)國(guó)面臨的安全張力也就越大,其戰(zhàn)略行為調(diào)整的動(dòng)力也就越強(qiáng)大;另一方面它也具有戰(zhàn)略投資價(jià)值,可以產(chǎn)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資回報(bào),高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高收益,因而外部不確定性對(duì)戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整發(fā)揮一種調(diào)控功能。東亞海域長(zhǎng)期存在不確定性,具體表現(xiàn)在各國(guó)海軍力量競(jìng)賽、海洋資源分配、海洋領(lǐng)土爭(zhēng)端、海洋劃界分歧以及非傳統(tǒng)安全威脅上升等,是美國(guó)調(diào)整其東亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略的干預(yù)力量。從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)角度上講,不確定性因素極易成為東亞海洋沖突的潛在誘因,美國(guó)將面臨被盟國(guó)綁架卷入東亞海洋沖突的可能。從投資價(jià)值來(lái)看,不確定性也是美國(guó)的一種戰(zhàn)略杠桿,是美國(guó)要挾部分東亞國(guó)家的工具。美國(guó)利用東亞廣泛存在的海洋不確定性,達(dá)到強(qiáng)化其在西太平洋的前沿存在,進(jìn)而撬動(dòng)?xùn)|亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略生態(tài)格局的戰(zhàn)略目的。不確定性越多,美國(guó)獲得合法性存在的理由也就越多;當(dāng)不確定性減少時(shí),美國(guó)會(huì)主觀故意放大不確定性,借機(jī)炒作東亞海洋矛盾,以攪亂東亞海洋秩序,可以達(dá)到"火中取栗",增加風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資回報(bào)的目的。美國(guó)東亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略的擴(kuò)張性調(diào)整既反映了美國(guó)借助海權(quán)維護(hù)海洋主導(dǎo)國(guó)家地位的戰(zhàn)略意圖,同時(shí)也反映出美國(guó)對(duì)新興大國(guó)的海權(quán)崛起感到戰(zhàn)略焦慮。對(duì)此,美國(guó)東亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略的調(diào)整存在著雙重意涵,一方面強(qiáng)調(diào)以實(shí)力制衡,另一方面也保持接觸與合作。為繼續(xù)保持東亞海權(quán)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì),美國(guó)東亞海權(quán)戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整的矛頭指向新興大國(guó),同時(shí)不斷優(yōu)化海權(quán)資源配置,提升海權(quán)能力水平,強(qiáng)化外交策略支持,持續(xù)深度介入東亞海洋爭(zhēng)端,意圖干預(yù)東亞海洋政治,扮演東亞的離岸平衡手角色,目的是維持全球海洋主導(dǎo)國(guó)身份,追求美國(guó)在東亞海洋事務(wù)的話語(yǔ)權(quán),保障自身的東亞海洋利益。中國(guó)崛起是21世紀(jì)世界政治的最重大變化,但也對(duì)自身帶來(lái)了雙重壓力,其一是維護(hù)自身海外利益的壓力增大,其二是維護(hù)海洋安全秩序的國(guó)際責(zé)任壓力也在增大。面對(duì)美國(guó)的東亞海權(quán)的戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整,作為負(fù)責(zé)任的全球新興大國(guó),中國(guó)應(yīng)該努力保持戰(zhàn)略定力,靈活運(yùn)用戰(zhàn)略智慧,堅(jiān)守和平發(fā)展理念,堅(jiān)持奮發(fā)有為原則,積極發(fā)展強(qiáng)大海權(quán),加快推進(jìn)海洋強(qiáng)國(guó)戰(zhàn)略實(shí)施,加速海軍現(xiàn)代化建設(shè),堅(jiān)定維護(hù)國(guó)家海洋權(quán)益,構(gòu)建更加平衡的新型大國(guó)海權(quán)關(guān)系,重構(gòu)東亞海洋秩序,為東亞國(guó)家提供優(yōu)質(zhì)的國(guó)際公共產(chǎn)品。
[Abstract]:Sea power refers to a state control of the sea and influence, plays a strategic function in large marine political game in twenty-first Century. In the post Cold War period, with the strategic position of East Asia's rising Asian sea power structural contradictions have become increasingly prominent, countries have to adjust their strategy of sea power. Under this background. The United States continued to strengthen the expansion of adjustment of East Asian sea power strategy, exacerbated by the complexity of ocean politics in East Asia, sensitivity and vulnerability. The right to adjust the strategy of the United States in East Asia sea presents new trends: one is initiative, according to changes in the external environment of active adjustment; two is expansionary, increasing investment in East Asia; three is a leading technology, strive to maintain a competitive advantage; four is the flexibility of emerging powers to take composite strategy both balance and cooperation; five is uncertain, the domestic interest group The game of East Asian sea power strategy is increasingly complex and unpredictable. The strategic adjustment in the United States reflects its dependence on East Asian sea power degree rise, while the structure imbalance of East Asian sea power strategy of ecological strategy appeared anxiety. The author mainly uses strategic behavior attribution analysis method, explains the problem of adjusting the power source expansion strategy of American East Asian sea power after the cold war. This paper argues that the expansion of the strategic adjustment of American East Asian sea power is the domestic and foreign three-dimensional dynamic intertwined, the comprehensive effect of the international power structure, national identity and external demand uncertainty as independent variables and the dependent variable to adjust the American East Asian sea power strategy, the new framework to establish a strategic behavior the attribution analysis, and puts forward three hypotheses: first, the strategic adjustment of hegemony is a protection of power power competition based on driving behavior; second, hegemony in the war A little adjustment is a kind of interest act to protect identity based driving demand growth; thirdly, strategic adjustment of hegemony is a kind of risk investment behavior driven uncertainty based on tension. The first hypothesis emphasizes the foreign strategic behavior of hegemony is the result of power. The change of the international structure change of international power is the impact of foreign direct power hegemony the strategy of hegemony, is highly sensitive to changes in the international power structure, the greater the change of international power, strategic pressure hegemony is also bigger, the power to adjust its own strategic behavior is more powerful. In the new technology revolution, the interaction of globalization and the market tide, the international power structure changes, global the center of power transfer from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean, East Asia has become the world's fastest-growing power area. Chinese formed a peaceful rise of the East Asia economic and security center from the double The center of governance structure, the supply of public goods in China and the United States international competition aggravating, shaping effect on East Asian economic integration and security. In the structure has the effect of ocean political complexity and fragmentation, the East Asian countries are committed to accelerating the naval modernization process, structural changes in the Western Pacific sea power strategy ecological system, regional sea power relations reconstruction the transfer of power. In the period, changes of power structure of American maritime hegemony in East Asia poses great pressure, as the adjustment of America's East Asia strategy of sea power of the external driving force. The second hypothesis emphasizes the status of hegemony has shaped on its strategic behavior. Identity affects the demarcation of national strategic interests, the hegemony of identity demand is affecting internal power hegemony strategy, an incentive function of hegemony strategy behavior. When the national identity depends on the status of hegemony, Demand is strong, intrinsic motivation of strategic adjustment is also more powerful. The United States is the world's leading marine country, this kind of role identity is its own geography, history, theory, economy and military and other factors together for a long time. Shaping the United States after the cold war as demand concentrated in power demand, honor and prestige demand, economic demand five, safety requirements and ideological needs, and keep growing. Identity demand growth promotes the expansion of strategic adjustment of American East Asian sea power, its strategic intent is to ensure that the advantages in the military, marine strategic channel control in East Asia; economic and East Asian economies interaction, with economic growth in East Asia. Provide the impetus for the economic development of the United States; strengthening political and East Asian allies, partners, support network construction with the United States as the core, balance the big emerging countries rise, the monopoly of marine The leading country status, to ensure that the United States in East Asia's maritime interests security, its essence is to effectively use sea power to maintain its global ocean leading country marine hegemony, to maximize their own identity needs. The third hypothesis emphasizes the influence of external uncertainty on the hegemony of strategic behavior. Uncertainty is the interference factors affecting hegemony strategic behavior, has a dual nature: on the one hand, it can produce huge security risk, tension, more uncertain factors, safety hegemony face tension is bigger, its dynamic adjustment of the strategic behavior is strong; on the other hand it also has strategic investment value, can produce the risk investment return. High risk and high return, so the external uncertainty play a regulatory function of strategic adjustment. The East Asian Seas long-term uncertainty, specifically in the naval power race, marine resources With the sea, territorial disputes, maritime delimitation disputes and non-traditional security threats are rising, is the United States to adjust its strategy in East Asia sea right intervention force. From the risk perspective, uncertainty factors are likely to become a potential cause of the East Asian Seas of the conflict, the United States will be involved in the kidnapping of allies in East Asian Seas conflict from the investment. The value point of view, the uncertainty of a strategic lever is the United States, the United States is threatening some of the tools of East Asian countries. The United States used in East Asia widespread marine uncertainty, to strengthen the frontier in the Western Pacific, and then move the strategic objective of East Asian sea power strategy ecological pattern. The more uncertain, the United States to obtain legitimacy the reason is also the more; when the uncertainty is reduced, the United States will enlarge the subjective uncertainty, took the opportunity to hype the East Asian Seas contradictions, to disrupt the East Asian maritime order, can be reached To gain profit in risk ", increase the risk of investment returns. The expansion of strategic adjustment of American East Asian sea power not only reflects the intentions of the United States by sea right to maintain marine leading status of country strategy, but also reflects the emerging powers of sea power on the rise feel anxiety. The strategy, strategy of the United States the right to adjust the existence of East Asian Seas a double meaning, on the one hand to power balance, on the other hand, maintain contact and cooperation. In order to maintain the competitive advantage of East Asian sea power, adjust the American East Asian sea power strategy aimed at emerging powers, and the continuous optimization of sea power in the allocation of resources, enhance the ability of sea power level, support to strengthen diplomatic strategy, continuous depth in the East Asian maritime disputes, the intention of the East Asian Seas political intervention, play the role of East Asia offshore balancer, the objective is to maintain the global ocean leading status, the pursuit of the United States in East Asia maritime affairs words Right, to protect their own interests. The rise of the East Asian Seas Chinese is the most significant change of world politics in twenty-first Century, but also brought pressure on their own, one is to safeguard their own interests overseas pressure increases, the maintenance of international maritime security responsibility pressure order is also increasing. The strategic adjustment in the face of the American East Asian sea power and as a responsible global emerging powers, Chinese should strive to maintain a strategic concentration, flexible strategic wisdom, adhere to the concept of peaceful development, adhere to the principle of the positive development of the sea be enthusiastic and press on, strong power, to accelerate the implementation of marine power strategy, accelerate naval modernization, firmly safeguard national marine rights and interests, the construction of new sea power more balanced relationship the reconstruction of the East Asian Seas, in order to provide international public goods quality for East Asian countries.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：D871.2

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