本文選題：新常態(tài)　切入點(diǎn)：城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)　出處：《吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：伴隨著我國(guó)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的進(jìn)一步深化,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)于投資和出口過(guò)度依賴(lài)的問(wèn)題已越發(fā)凸顯。2000年以后,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)起著主要推動(dòng)作用的三駕馬車(chē)中,消費(fèi)對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)率一直在低位徘徊。2014年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正式步入新常態(tài),在這樣一個(gè)大背景下,乏力的消費(fèi)已經(jīng)嚴(yán)重制約了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng),如何擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需成為中國(guó)正面臨的一大難題。黨的十七大明確指出:“促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)由主要依靠投資、出口拉動(dòng)向依靠消費(fèi)、投資、出口協(xié)調(diào)拉動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)變�！闭蛧�(guó)家將擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)提升到了戰(zhàn)略層面,黨和政府今后會(huì)將工作重心放在如何引導(dǎo)城鎮(zhèn)居民合理地進(jìn)行消費(fèi)和怎樣才能深度挖掘城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費(fèi)潛力上來(lái)。雖然黨中央和國(guó)務(wù)院對(duì)于增加城鎮(zhèn)居民的收入水平和提升城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)極其重視,并且城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)也有廣闊的前景,但是現(xiàn)狀卻不容樂(lè)觀。城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)不足問(wèn)題凸顯,甚至已經(jīng)嚴(yán)重地影響到國(guó)家擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需的決策,因此我們必須對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)水平進(jìn)行深層次的研究。本文采用了靜態(tài)分析和實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的方法進(jìn)行研究。首先介紹了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)的背景,然后總結(jié)并簡(jiǎn)單闡述了國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)外的關(guān)于居民消費(fèi)的一些相關(guān)理論。之后介紹了消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的基本內(nèi)容以及中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)下面臨的消費(fèi)問(wèn)題和消費(fèi)不足的原因。本文認(rèn)為不僅收入水平對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費(fèi)行為產(chǎn)生影響,而且社會(huì)保障體系的完善與否和有效供給不足等因素都會(huì)對(duì)其產(chǎn)生影響。本文從時(shí)間數(shù)列進(jìn)行分析,選取了全國(guó)2001年到2015年的城鎮(zhèn)居民人均消費(fèi)和人均GDP的數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)其進(jìn)行了協(xié)整分析和格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)得出的結(jié)論是居民消費(fèi)與GDP之間存在著穩(wěn)定的相互影響關(guān)系。在此基礎(chǔ)上,用橫截面數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,選取了2014年和2015年全國(guó)31個(gè)地區(qū)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的8個(gè)指標(biāo)使用因子分析法提取了3個(gè)主成分,分別是生活必備及發(fā)展享受因子、健康裝扮因子和居住消費(fèi)因子,最后得到這兩年的城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的因子得分公式,利用該模型對(duì)2014年和2015年全國(guó)31個(gè)地區(qū)的綜合得分進(jìn)行排名并進(jìn)行了對(duì)比。分析得出東部等發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了新常態(tài),消費(fèi)的擴(kuò)張速度有所放緩;而中西部地區(qū)目前經(jīng)濟(jì)正在進(jìn)入新常態(tài),其消費(fèi)的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭仍舊比較強(qiáng)勁。各地區(qū)在3個(gè)因子上的消費(fèi)差也比較大。最后本文提出了一些刺激國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)的政策,主要包括完善社會(huì)保障體系、加快供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革和根據(jù)地區(qū)情況實(shí)施消費(fèi)政策等。
[Abstract]:Along with the further deepening of the market economy reform in our country, the problem of excessive dependence of economic growth on investment and exports has become more and more prominent. After 2000, in the troika, which plays a major role in promoting economic growth, The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth has been hovering at a low level. In 2014, China's economy formally entered the new normal, in such a big context, weak consumption has seriously restricted the growth of the Chinese economy. How to expand domestic demand has become a major problem that China is facing. The 17th CPC National Congress clearly pointed out: "promoting economic growth depends mainly on investment, export-led by relying on consumption and investment," "the government and the state have raised the expansion of consumption to a strategic level," he said. The party and government will focus their efforts on how to guide urban residents to spend reasonably and how to tap the potential of urban residents in depth, although the party Central Committee and the State Council will increase the income of urban residents. The level and promotion of urban residents' consumption are extremely important, There are also broad prospects for the consumption market of urban residents, but the present situation is not optimistic. The problem of insufficient consumption of urban residents has even seriously affected the decision of the state to expand domestic demand. Therefore, we must do a deep research on the consumption level of urban residents. This paper adopts the method of combining static analysis and empirical analysis. Firstly, it introduces the background of the new normal state of Chinese economy. Then it summarizes and briefly expounds some related theories about resident consumption both at home and abroad, and then introduces the basic content of consumption structure and the consumption problems and reasons of insufficient consumption in the new normal state of Chinese economy. This paper argues that not only the income level has an impact on the consumption behavior of urban residents, And whether the social security system is perfect or not and whether the effective supply is insufficient will have an impact on it. This paper analyzes the time series and selects the data of per capita consumption and per capita GDP of urban residents from 2001 to 2015. The conclusion of cointegration analysis and Granger causality test is that there is a stable interaction between resident consumption and GDP. In 2014 and 2015, 8 indexes of the consumption structure of urban residents in 31 regions of China were selected. Three principal components were extracted by factor analysis, which were essential to life and development and enjoyment, health dressing and living consumption. Finally, the factor score formula for the consumption structure of urban residents in the past two years is obtained. The model is used to rank and compare the comprehensive scores of 31 regions in China in 2014 and 2015. The analysis shows that the economy of the eastern developed regions has entered the new normal and the expansion rate of consumption has slowed down. While the central and western regions are now entering a new normal, the growth momentum of their consumption is still relatively strong. The difference in consumption among the three factors in each region is also relatively large. Finally, this paper puts forward some policies to stimulate domestic consumption. It mainly includes perfecting the social security system, speeding up the structural reform on the supply side and implementing the consumption policy according to the regional conditions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F126.1

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