本文關鍵詞： 生育政策 生育行為 政策效果 經(jīng)濟學方法　出處：《云南大學》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：實施了多年積極地限制生育的政策,有效地緩解了我國人口規(guī)模過快增長的壓力,但該政策也造成了我國人口結構一定程度的失衡,在此背景下,我國對生育政策進行了重大調整,并相繼制定和實施了“單獨二孩”和“全面二孩”政策。從實際情況來看,“單獨二孩”政策并沒有獲得預期的政策效果,更沒有出現(xiàn)預測的報復性生育高潮,剛剛實施的“全面二孩”政策的效果還有待實踐的檢驗,雖然社會普遍持樂觀態(tài)度,但生育行為有其自身的邏輯,政策設計的本身也有難以完美之處,政策效果與預期存在偏差的可能性使得將上述兩者統(tǒng)一起來分析的需求更為迫切。本文在對人口普查數(shù)據(jù)進行分析的基礎上認為,我國人口的基本國情存在增長乏力、結構失衡等特點,并運用數(shù)理模型推演出我國人口發(fā)展趨勢將會是人口數(shù)量迅速下降、老齡化趨勢加劇的判斷。文章梳理了我國建國以后生育政策的變遷脈絡并將其分為三個階段：自由生育政策階段(1949年—1959年)、消極地限制生育政策階段(1960年—1979年)、積極地限制生育政策階段(1980年—2013年),將現(xiàn)時定義為生育政策的調整階段。在明確我國生育政策正處于調整階段后,本文從微觀角度出發(fā),運用經(jīng)濟學方法分析人們的生育行為尤其是將無差異分析方法運用到生育成本的分析中,在此基礎上,對生育政策的作用機制進行解釋,然后建立數(shù)理模型對“單獨二孩”和“全面二孩”以及未來有可能實施的“全面放開”三個生育政策影響面進行探討,再從規(guī)模和結構兩個方面分析這些生育政策的人口效應,總結了影響政策效果的因素并得出這三個生育政策都不會必然地提高生育率的結論。最后,在對我國現(xiàn)階段生育政策的效果作出基本判斷的基礎上,提出如何更好地實現(xiàn)我國生育政策目標的一些啟示和相關建議。
[Abstract]:The policy of actively limiting fertility for many years has effectively alleviated the pressure of excessive population growth in our country, but this policy has also resulted in a certain degree of imbalance in the population structure of our country. China has made major adjustments to its fertility policy, and has successively formulated and implemented the policy of "single two-child" and "all-around two-child". From the actual situation, the policy of "single two-child" has not achieved the expected policy effect. There has been no predicted retaliatory fertility climax. The effect of the "comprehensive two-child" policy that has just been implemented has yet to be tested in practice. Although society is generally optimistic, fertility behavior has its own logic. It is difficult to perfect the policy design itself, and the possibility of deviation between policy effect and expectation makes the need to unify the above two analysis more urgent. This paper holds that, based on the analysis of census data, The basic national conditions of China's population are characterized by weak growth and unbalanced structure, and the mathematical model is used to infer that the population development trend of our country will be a rapid decline of population. The article sorts out the changing context of fertility policy after the founding of the people's Republic of China and divides it into three stages: the stage of free birth policy (1949-1959), the stage of passively restricting fertility policy (1960-1960). Actively limiting the birth policy stage (1980-2013), defining the present as the adjustment stage of the fertility policy. After it is clear that our country's fertility policy is in the adjustment stage, In this paper, from the micro point of view, we use economic methods to analyze people's reproductive behavior, especially apply the non-differential analysis method to the analysis of fertility cost, and on this basis, explain the mechanism of fertility policy. Then the mathematical model is established to discuss the influence of the "single second child" and "comprehensive second child" and the "comprehensive opening" three fertility policies that may be implemented in the future, and then analyze the population effect of these fertility policies from two aspects of scale and structure. This paper summarizes the factors influencing the effect of the policy and draws the conclusion that none of the three fertility policies will necessarily increase the fertility rate. Finally, on the basis of making a basic judgment on the effect of the fertility policy at the present stage of our country, Some enlightenments and relevant suggestions on how to achieve the goal of fertility policy in China are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：云南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：C924.21
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本文編號：1494039