【摘要】：近年來(lái)，隨著水電工程項(xiàng)目的持續(xù)發(fā)展，工程施工中高危作業(yè)的安全管理受到廣泛關(guān)注，傳統(tǒng)的建筑施工安全管理方法往往無(wú)法指導(dǎo)水電施工管理，，因此需要研究科學(xué)的安全評(píng)價(jià)方法指導(dǎo)其安全監(jiān)督管理，在施工安全中發(fā)揮實(shí)際效用。 本文通過(guò)對(duì)大型水電工程施工事故的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，確定高危作業(yè)的行為因素及其分類、分層關(guān)系，構(gòu)造適用于水電工程高危作業(yè)安全評(píng)價(jià)的指標(biāo)框架體系。使用三峽工程、溪洛渡工程和向家壩工程總計(jì)186起施工安全事故案例數(shù)據(jù)，分析并統(tǒng)計(jì)引發(fā)事故的行為因素，然后運(yùn)用卡方檢驗(yàn)分析因素間的獨(dú)立性，并進(jìn)一步運(yùn)用Lambda相關(guān)系數(shù)和Tau-y相關(guān)系數(shù)分析行為因素如何互相影響和相互影響的程度。利用相關(guān)系數(shù)建立DEMATEL模型，得到各個(gè)因素對(duì)其他因素的原因度和中心度，更好的理解系統(tǒng)指標(biāo)因素間的結(jié)構(gòu)關(guān)系和在系統(tǒng)中的作用方式。將DEMATEL方法與ANP方法結(jié)合，改進(jìn)了傳統(tǒng)ANP方法建模中通過(guò)專家意見(jiàn)對(duì)指標(biāo)因素評(píng)分來(lái)獲取指標(biāo)優(yōu)勢(shì)度比較存在的問(wèn)題。并結(jié)合DEMATEL模型的計(jì)算評(píng)價(jià)的結(jié)果對(duì)ANP權(quán)重進(jìn)行修正和解釋。最后針對(duì)具體的高危作業(yè)對(duì)象，高邊坡工程施工，對(duì)過(guò)程監(jiān)控手段給出的安全檢查結(jié)果，運(yùn)用證據(jù)理論方法進(jìn)行證據(jù)融合，改進(jìn)了由于安全檢查表數(shù)據(jù)的不確定性、模糊性和主觀性問(wèn)題，并結(jié)合安全評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的權(quán)重，對(duì)整體系統(tǒng)施工風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估，提供相應(yīng)的安全整改意見(jiàn)。 經(jīng)過(guò)多種方法的分析和建模評(píng)價(jià)，本文最終得到高危作業(yè)施工系統(tǒng)中的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的相對(duì)重要性，并針對(duì)實(shí)際案例找到了系統(tǒng)安全薄弱環(huán)節(jié)，為施工安全管理提供處理意見(jiàn)和分析依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the sustainable development of hydropower projects, the safety management of high-risk operations in engineering construction has been widely concerned. The traditional construction safety management methods are often unable to guide hydropower construction management. Therefore, it is necessary to study the scientific safety evaluation method to guide its safety supervision and management, and to play a practical role in construction safety. Based on the statistical analysis of construction accidents in large hydropower projects, this paper determines the behavior factors and their classification and stratification relationship of high risk operations, and constructs an index framework system suitable for safety evaluation of high risk operations in hydropower projects. Based on the data of 186 construction safety accidents in the three Gorges Project, Xiluodu Project and Xiangjia Dam Project, the behavioral factors causing the accident are analyzed and counted, and then the independence among the factors is analyzed by chi-square test. Furthermore, Lambda correlation coefficient and Tau-y correlation coefficient were used to analyze how behavioral factors affected each other and the degree of interaction. The DEMATEL model is established by using the correlation coefficient, and the degree of cause and centrality of each factor to other factors are obtained, and the structural relationship between the factors of the system index and the mode of action in the system are better understood. Combining DEMATEL method with ANP method, the problem of obtaining index dominance by expert opinion in traditional ANP method modeling is improved. Combined with the results of calculation and evaluation of DEMATEL model, the weight of ANP is modified and explained. Finally, aiming at the concrete high risk operation object and the construction of high slope engineering, the safety inspection results given by the process monitoring means are given, and the evidence theory method is used to fuse the evidence, which improves the uncertainty of the safety inspection table data. Fuzziness and subjectivity, combined with the weight of safety evaluation index, the construction risk of the whole system is evaluated, and the corresponding safety rectification suggestions are provided. Through the analysis and modeling evaluation of various methods, this paper finally obtains the relative importance of the evaluation index in the high risk operation construction system, and finds the weak link of the system safety according to the actual case. It provides treatment opinions and analysis basis for construction safety management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV513

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