本文選題：大別山庫區(qū) + 降水預(yù)報(bào)��； 參考：《湖泊科學(xué)》2017年06期

【摘要】：對(duì)降水預(yù)報(bào)進(jìn)行性能評(píng)估及應(yīng)用對(duì)策研究可以更好地發(fā)揮降水預(yù)報(bào)在水庫調(diào)度中的決策支持作用.基于大別山庫區(qū)近10 a汛期(2007—2016年5月1日—9月30日)24~168 h共7個(gè)預(yù)見期降水預(yù)報(bào)和地面降水觀測(cè)資料,采用正確率、TS評(píng)分、概率統(tǒng)計(jì)、ROC曲線以及CTS等方法評(píng)估大別山庫區(qū)降水預(yù)報(bào)性能,并以響洪甸水庫為重點(diǎn)研究區(qū)域分析降水預(yù)報(bào)在水庫調(diào)度中的應(yīng)用對(duì)策.結(jié)果表明:1)大別山庫區(qū)各量級(jí)的降水預(yù)報(bào)都有正預(yù)報(bào)技巧;24~72 h預(yù)見期降水預(yù)報(bào)的TS評(píng)分較高且空?qǐng)?bào)率、漏報(bào)率也較低,具有較高的預(yù)報(bào)性能;但96 h及以上預(yù)見期降水預(yù)報(bào)性能明顯下降,中雨以上量級(jí)空?qǐng)?bào)率、漏報(bào)率較大,特別是對(duì)大暴雨及其以上量級(jí)的降水預(yù)報(bào)性能顯著下降.2)大別山庫區(qū)預(yù)報(bào)降水量級(jí)與實(shí)況降水量級(jí)基本符合,預(yù)報(bào)降水量級(jí)大于等于實(shí)況降水量級(jí)的概率超過75%;雖然降水預(yù)報(bào)量級(jí)上呈現(xiàn)出過度預(yù)報(bào)的現(xiàn)象,但降水過程預(yù)報(bào)對(duì)水庫調(diào)度仍有較好的應(yīng)用價(jià)值,應(yīng)用時(shí)要考慮到降水預(yù)報(bào)量級(jí)可能存在偏差.3)轉(zhuǎn)折性天氣預(yù)報(bào)96 h及以上預(yù)見期CTS評(píng)分較低,但72 h以內(nèi)預(yù)見期的性能明顯改進(jìn),尤其是24 h預(yù)見期CTS評(píng)分也提高到了38.2%;水庫調(diào)度可從長(zhǎng)預(yù)見期的降水預(yù)報(bào)獲取降水過程及其可能發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)折的信息,根據(jù)短預(yù)見期的降水預(yù)報(bào)進(jìn)行調(diào)度方案調(diào)整.
[Abstract]:The performance evaluation of precipitation forecast and the study of its application countermeasures can play a better role in the decision support of reservoir operation. Based on the precipitation forecast and surface precipitation observation data of 24168h in recent 10 years flood season (2007-2016) in Dabie Mountain reservoir area, the correct rate and TS score are used. Probabilistic statistical ROC curve and CTS are used to evaluate the performance of precipitation prediction in Dabie Mountain reservoir area. The regional analysis of precipitation forecast in Xianghongdian Reservoir is studied. The results show that every order of magnitude precipitation forecast in Dabie Mountain area has positive forecast technique. The TS score of precipitation forecast in 2472 h prediction period is higher and the rate of missing report is also lower, and the forecast performance is higher. However, the forecast performance of precipitation in 96 h and above forecast period is obviously decreased, and the rate of missing report is higher than that of moderate rain, and the rate of missing report is higher than that of moderate rain. In particular, for heavy rainstorms and above, the performance of precipitation forecasting is significantly decreased by .2) the predicted precipitation level in the Dabie Mountain reservoir area is basically in line with the actual precipitation level. The probability of forecasting precipitation level greater than or equal to that of real precipitation level is more than 75. Although there is a phenomenon of excessive forecast on the order of precipitation forecast, the precipitation process forecast still has a good application value for reservoir operation. In application, it should be taken into account that there may be a deviation of 3. 3) CTS scores in the favorable weather forecast for 96 h and above are low, but the performance of the forecast period within 72 h is obviously improved. Especially, the CTS score of 24 h prediction period is also increased to 38.2, and the reservoir operation can obtain the precipitation process and its possible turning information from the precipitation forecast in the long forecast period, and adjust the operation scheme according to the precipitation forecast in the short forecast period.
【作者單位】： 安徽省氣象臺(tái);安徽省大氣科學(xué)與衛(wèi)星遙感重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室;安徽省水文局;南京信息工程大學(xué)大氣科學(xué)學(xué)院;
【基金】：公益性行業(yè)(氣象)科研專項(xiàng)(GYHY201406021)資助
【分類號(hào)】：P457.6;TV697

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