發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-23 22:31

  本文選題：灰關(guān)聯(lián) + 灰色聚類　； 參考：《華北水利水電大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：灰色評估模型是評價(jià)模型中的的重要組成部分,本文對幾個(gè)灰色評估模型進(jìn)行了研究,并將其運(yùn)用于信息具有灰色特性的黃河冰凌災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估問題中,主要成果如下:首先,對流凌期的黃河寧蒙河段進(jìn)行了冰塞易發(fā)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估。對于水文信息具有灰色特性的黃河寧蒙河段,考慮到評估者的心理因素,提出一種基于后悔理論的灰關(guān)聯(lián)評估方法。構(gòu)建了欣喜后悔值函數(shù),求得黃河巴彥高勒河段、三湖河口河段和頭道拐河段的欣喜值與后悔值;并以欣喜后悔值最大的原則建立權(quán)重優(yōu)化模型,得到流量、氣溫、水深等指標(biāo)權(quán)重;以欣喜后悔值的大小對各河段進(jìn)行排序。結(jié)果表明:三湖河口河段較巴彥高勒河段、頭道拐河段更易發(fā)生冰塞災(zāi)害。其次,對黃河巴彥高勒河段進(jìn)行了10年凌汛易發(fā)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。依據(jù)冰凌形成機(jī)理,構(gòu)建由氣溫、流量、水位組成的凌汛易發(fā)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn);借助灰色聚類方法和分析技巧,建立灰色白化權(quán)函數(shù)的二階段聚類評估模型;選取黃河巴彥高勒河段2006-2016年氣溫、流量、水位指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行聚類分析,并根據(jù)聚類結(jié)果作出合理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估。結(jié)果表明:黃河巴彥高勒河段每年凌期2/3左右的天數(shù)的凌汛易發(fā)性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級分布在中等、較高級別;就每年度整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而言,近10年中有3年處于較高風(fēng)險(xiǎn),7年處于中等風(fēng)險(xiǎn);而且每年風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)間分布呈現(xiàn)駝峰,即為流凌期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低,初封期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高,穩(wěn)封期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中等,開河初期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較高,開河末期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較低。最后,對開河期的黃河寧蒙河段進(jìn)行了動態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)型評估分析。選取的2004-2016年黃河石嘴山河段、巴彥高勒河段、三湖河口河段的指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù),并劃分為3個(gè)階段,構(gòu)建了動態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)型灰靶模型。利用后悔理論與數(shù)學(xué)期望相結(jié)合的方法,構(gòu)建了集結(jié)欣喜-后悔值函數(shù),把風(fēng)險(xiǎn)型評估問題轉(zhuǎn)化為無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估問題,并以近期數(shù)據(jù)參考價(jià)值更高為基準(zhǔn),把動態(tài)評估問題轉(zhuǎn)化為靜態(tài)評估問題;引入橢形灰靶模型,求得各個(gè)方案的偏離靶心度并對3個(gè)河段進(jìn)行排序。結(jié)果表明:巴彥高勒河段開河期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較三湖河口河段、石嘴山河段更高。本文構(gòu)建了多個(gè)灰色評估模型,并應(yīng)用于黃河冰凌災(zāi)害評估問題中。合理的評估結(jié)果證實(shí)了模型的科學(xué)性與實(shí)用性,也為黃河冰凌災(zāi)害的防治提供了借鑒。
[Abstract]:Grey evaluation model is an important part of evaluation model. This paper studies several grey evaluation models, and applies them to the problem of risk assessment of Yellow River ice with gray characteristics. The main results are as follows: first of all, Ice slug vulnerability risk assessment was carried out in the Ningmeng reach of the Yellow River during convection transit. In view of the psychological factors of the evaluators, a grey correlation evaluation method based on regret theory is proposed for the Ningmeng reach of the Yellow River, where hydrological information has grey characteristics. The function of happy regret value is constructed to obtain the joy value and regret value of Bayangol reach, Sanhu estuary reach and Tou Daoguanhe reach of the Yellow River, and the weight optimization model is set up with the principle of maximum happy regret value, and the flow rate and temperature are obtained. The weight of indexes such as water depth and the order of river reach by the value of joy regret. The results show that the reach of Sanhu Estuary is more prone to ice slug than that of Bayangol reach. Secondly, the risk of ice flood in Bayangol reach of the Yellow River for 10 years is analyzed. According to the ice formation mechanism, the risk evaluation standard of ice flood susceptibility is established, which is composed of temperature, discharge and water level, and the two-stage clustering evaluation model of grey whitening weight function is established with the help of grey clustering method and analysis technique. The data of temperature, discharge and water level in Bayangol reach of the Yellow River from 2006 to 2016 were selected for cluster analysis, and a reasonable risk assessment was made according to the clustering results. The results show that the risk level of ice flood susceptibility of the Bayangol reach of the Yellow River is about 2 / 3 days per year, and the risk level of flood susceptibility is in the middle, higher level, and in terms of the overall risk per year, In the last 10 years, 3 of them are at higher risk, 7 of them are at medium risk, and the risk time distribution of each year is hump, that is, the risk of flow transit period is lower, the risk of initial seal period is higher, the risk of stable seal period is medium, and the risk of initial period of Kaihe River is higher. The risk at the end of the river is low. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment of the Ningmeng reach of the Yellow River in Kaihe period was carried out. The index data of Shizuishan reach, Bayangol reach and Sanhu River reach of the Yellow River from 2004 to 2016 were selected and divided into three stages. A dynamic risk grey target model was constructed. Based on the method of combining regret theory with mathematical expectation, this paper constructs the aggregate-regret value function to transform the risk-type evaluation problem into a risk-free evaluation problem, and takes the higher reference value of the recent data as the benchmark. The dynamic evaluation problem is transformed into the static evaluation problem and the elliptical grey target model is introduced to calculate the deviation from the target centroid of each scheme and to sort the three reaches. The results show that the risk of Bayangol reach is higher than that of Sanhu estuary reach and Shizuishan reach. In this paper, several grey assessment models are constructed and applied to the problem of ice disaster assessment of the Yellow River. The reasonable evaluation results confirm the scientific and practicability of the model, and also provide reference for the prevention and control of the Yellow River ice fall disaster.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北水利水電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV875;TV882.1;N941.5

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 張一兵;劉s，

本文編號：1926633