本文選題：信息矩陣方法　切入點(diǎn)：信息分配　出處：《計(jì)算機(jī)工程與應(yīng)用》2017年14期

【摘要】：山洪災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)的確定是防洪減災(zāi)工作中的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)問題,但由于山洪實(shí)測(cè)資料序列較短且山洪災(zāi)害樣本量較小,難以采用傳統(tǒng)的統(tǒng)計(jì)模型建立山洪災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)。任何統(tǒng)計(jì)模型其本質(zhì)是建立輸入-輸出關(guān)系,在數(shù)學(xué)上可以用函數(shù)關(guān)系表達(dá),信息矩陣方法能夠從小樣本獲得信息并建立這種函數(shù)關(guān)系。利用淠河流域歷史降水與流量極值資料,將2003—2012年17次典型洪水過程作為學(xué)習(xí)樣本,構(gòu)建流域前期土壤含水量飽和度、5個(gè)時(shí)間尺度(1,3,6,12,24 h)降雨量以及4個(gè)重現(xiàn)期(5、≥5、≥20、≥50 a)洪峰流量的模糊關(guān)系矩陣,進(jìn)而建立山洪災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警不同等級(jí)組合指標(biāo)。從2003—2012年洪水資料中選取未參與統(tǒng)計(jì)的40組獨(dú)立樣本,對(duì)不同時(shí)間尺度山洪災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警組合指標(biāo)進(jìn)行應(yīng)用檢驗(yàn),總體預(yù)警合格率達(dá)到70%,表明該方法應(yīng)用于山洪災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警是可行的。
[Abstract]:The determination of early warning index of mountain torrent disaster risk is a key technical problem in flood control and disaster reduction work. However, because of the short sequence of measured data and the small sample size of mountain flood disaster, It is difficult to use traditional statistical model to establish early warning index of mountain torrent disaster risk. The essence of any statistical model is to establish input-output relation, which can be expressed mathematically by function relation. The information matrix method can obtain information from small samples and establish this functional relationship. Using the historical precipitation and discharge extremum data of Pi River Basin, 17 typical flood processes from 2003 to 2012 are used as learning samples. The fuzzy relation matrix of soil water saturation in the early stage of watershed, rainfall in 5 time scales (1 ~ 3 ~ 3 ~ 6 ~ 6 ~ (-1) ~ (-1) ~ (-1)) and runoff of Hong Feng in 4 recurrence periods (n = 5, 鈮，

本文編號(hào)：1672659