本文選題：穿黃河工程　切入點：技術(shù)風(fēng)險　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：本論文對穿黃河工程建設(shè)全過程風(fēng)險評價與控制體系進行研究,從工程規(guī)劃、設(shè)計、施工和運營中都進行工程技術(shù)風(fēng)險分析與評價,其中包括設(shè)計風(fēng)險、施工技術(shù)風(fēng)險、運行風(fēng)險、水文風(fēng)險、社會風(fēng)險等過程,全面分析穿黃河工程存在的技術(shù)風(fēng)險及采取相應(yīng)的對策措施。 首先進行穿黃河工程的主要技術(shù)風(fēng)險識別,分別對工程中的兩項重點工程：土方工程與水工鋼筋混凝土工程進行風(fēng)險分析。土方工程的主要風(fēng)險事故有：滑坡與塌方、流砂、地基擾動、土方填筑超標沉陷等；水工鋼筋混凝土工程的主要風(fēng)險事故有混凝土裂縫、襯砌混凝土裂縫防滲、鋼筋連接方式、鋼筋工程冬季施工、模板工程施工等。 其次建立穿黃河工程技術(shù)風(fēng)險分析綜合評價模型,利用模糊數(shù)學(xué)的方法進行指標權(quán)重的量化,建立風(fēng)險分析綜合評價模型,確定工程的風(fēng)險概率。通過建立項目風(fēng)險評價指標體系,應(yīng)用層次分析法確定項目風(fēng)險指標權(quán)重,進行各個風(fēng)險因素重要度排序,以對這些因素進行管理；其次利用模糊綜合評判法進行系統(tǒng)總風(fēng)險度的評價,從而做出項目決策。 再次分析穿黃河工程主要構(gòu)筑物(穿黃隧洞、灘地埋管、南干渠、出湖閘)的技術(shù)風(fēng)險對風(fēng)險應(yīng)對措施,對比結(jié)構(gòu)的布置與形式的選擇風(fēng)險,對各主要結(jié)構(gòu)的風(fēng)險源與風(fēng)險事件進行重點分析：穿黃隧洞工程主要分析塌方與涌水風(fēng)險；灘地埋管工程主要分析邊坡開挖穩(wěn)定性、地基不均勻沉陷、基坑開挖滲水風(fēng)險；南干渠工程主要分析滲漏與滲透變形風(fēng)險、渠道邊坡穩(wěn)定性風(fēng)險,并結(jié)合蒙特卡羅模擬進行渠道邊坡可靠性分析,分析得出邊坡的安全系數(shù)和失效概率。 最后,分別對穿黃河工程的運行、投資、招投標和合同風(fēng)險進行簡要分析,制定合理的管理方案與措施。在工程風(fēng)險措施方面,重點研究工程保險在穿黃河工程中的應(yīng)用,并分析穿黃河工程的保險方式。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the risk evaluation and control system in the whole process of the Yellow River project construction, including the design risk, the construction technology risk, the engineering technical risk analysis and the evaluation in the engineering planning, the design, the construction and the operation. In the process of operation risk, hydrological risk and social risk, the technical risk existing in the project of crossing the Yellow River is comprehensively analyzed and the corresponding countermeasures are taken. First of all, the main technical risk identification of the project through the Yellow River is carried out, and the risk analysis of two key projects in the project: earthwork and hydraulic reinforced concrete engineering are carried out respectively. The main risk accidents of the earthwork include landslide and collapse, flowing sand, and so on. The main risk accidents of hydraulic reinforced concrete engineering include concrete crack, lining concrete crack anti-seepage, steel bar connection way, reinforcement engineering winter construction, formwork construction and so on. Secondly, the comprehensive evaluation model of technical risk analysis is established, the index weight is quantified by using fuzzy mathematics, and the comprehensive evaluation model of risk analysis is established. Through the establishment of project risk evaluation index system, using AHP to determine the weight of project risk index, the importance of each risk factor is sorted to manage these factors. Secondly, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the total risk of the system and make the project decision. The technical risk of the main structures (tunnel, beach buried pipe, south trunk canal, lake gate) in the Yellow River crossing project is analyzed again, and the risk of risk response is analyzed, and the selection risk of the layout and form of the structure is compared. The risk sources and events of each main structure are analyzed emphatically: the tunnel project through the Yellow River mainly analyzes the risk of collapse and water gushing, the beach buried pipe project mainly analyzes the stability of slope excavation, the uneven settlement of foundation, and the risk of seepage in excavation of foundation pit. The risk of seepage and seepage deformation and the risk of channel slope stability are analyzed in the south trunk canal project. The reliability analysis of channel slope is carried out by Monte Carlo simulation. The safety factor and failure probability of the slope are analyzed. Finally, the operation, investment, bidding and contract risk of the Yellow River crossing project are briefly analyzed, and reasonable management schemes and measures are worked out. In the aspect of project risk measures, the application of engineering insurance in the project of crossing the Yellow River is mainly studied. And analyzes the safety mode of the Yellow River project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TV68;TV51

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