本文選題：SWAT模型　切入點(diǎn)：大汶河流域　出處：《濟(jì)南大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：變化環(huán)境下徑流響應(yīng)研究已成為當(dāng)今社會(huì)研究的熱點(diǎn)問題之一。氣候變化和人類活動(dòng)作為變化環(huán)境的重要體現(xiàn)和組成部分,對(duì)流域的徑流變化帶來了不同程度的影響。合理地分析氣候變化和人類活動(dòng)對(duì)徑流的影響并分析二者的貢獻(xiàn)率顯得極為重要,同時(shí)也成為了變化環(huán)境下徑流響應(yīng)研究的一個(gè)難點(diǎn)。本文以大汶河流域?yàn)檠芯繀^(qū),應(yīng)用SWAT模型進(jìn)行研究,對(duì)模型進(jìn)行敏感性分析及率定和驗(yàn)證,將率定好的模型應(yīng)用到大汶河流域,模擬其徑流變化。本次研究主要得出以下結(jié)論:(1)應(yīng)用SWAT模型對(duì)該流域進(jìn)行研究,將流域劃分為35個(gè)子流域,326個(gè)水文響應(yīng)單元。對(duì)參數(shù)進(jìn)行敏感性和不確定性分析,確定適合該流域的參數(shù)敏感性范圍。用戴村壩水文站1998-2015年和萊蕪水文站1981-1987年的月徑流數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)模擬的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行率定和驗(yàn)證,結(jié)果表明,Ens、R2都大于0.6,都符合SWAT模型的評(píng)價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),說明SWAT模型能較好的應(yīng)用于該流域。(2)通過使用Mann-Kendall突變分析方法和累積距平法對(duì)流域各時(shí)段年降雨量、年平均氣溫的變化進(jìn)行趨勢和變化點(diǎn)分析,分析氣溫和降水的變化情況。1998年為氣溫和降水的突變年,近26年氣溫的年平均氣溫為13.4oC,并且約以0.47 oC/10a的速度增長,降水的年平均降水量為755.7mm,并且約以54.9mm/10a減少。為流域徑流的模擬研究提供一定的參考依據(jù)。(3)分析各氣候情景變化下的流域年均徑流的變化可知:降水變化對(duì)徑流的影響要高于氣溫對(duì)徑流的影響。降水每增加10%,徑流平均約增加18.3%。氣溫每增加1oC,徑流平均約減少4.1%。(4)分別研究了1985年、2000年、2015年三期土地利用在相同氣候情境下的徑流變化,得出氣候環(huán)境相同的情況下,2000年土地利用下的徑流最大,其次是2015年,最小的是1985年土地利用下的徑流。(5)分析極端土地利用情景變化下的徑流變化率可知:情景三(草地)下年均徑流值最大,其次是情景二(林地),情景一(耕地)的年均徑流值最小。(6)土地利用和氣候變化都導(dǎo)致徑流不同程度的變化,其中土地利用變化明顯大于氣候變化的作用。就年徑流變化而言,大約90%是由土地利用變化造成的,而氣候變化對(duì)徑流的影響僅占10%。因此,在以后的大汶河流域水資源管理中要注意土地利用趨勢并采取相應(yīng)的管理措施,以促進(jìn)大汶河流域水生態(tài)環(huán)境的健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The study of runoff response under changing environment has become one of the hot issues in the society. Climate change and human activities are important embodiment and component of changing environment. It is very important to analyze the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff, and to analyze their contribution rate. At the same time, it has become a difficult point in the study of runoff response in the changing environment. In this paper, the SWAT model is used to study the runoff response in the Davin River Basin, and the sensitivity analysis and rate determination of the model are carried out. In this study, the following conclusions are drawn: 1) the SWAT model is used to study the river basin. The basin is divided into 35 subbasins with 326 hydrological response units. The sensitivity and uncertainty of the parameters are analyzed. The sensitivity range of parameters suitable for the basin was determined. The monthly runoff data of Dacumba Hydrological Station from 1998 to 2015 and Laiwu Hydrologic Station from 1981 to 1987 were used to confirm and verify the simulated data. The results showed that both of them were more than 0.6, and all of them met the evaluation criteria of SWAT model. It shows that the SWAT model can be applied to the basin. (2) by using the Mann-Kendall mutation analysis method and the cumulative anomaly method, the trend and the change point of the annual rainfall and the annual mean temperature in each period of the basin are analyzed. The variation of air temperature and precipitation was analyzed. 1998 was the abrupt year of air temperature and precipitation. The annual average temperature of nearly 26 years was 13.4oC, and it increased at a rate of about 0.47 oC/10a. The annual average precipitation is 755.7 mm, which is reduced by 54.9mm/10a. It provides a certain reference basis for the simulation study of watershed runoff. The effect of air temperature on runoff is higher than that of temperature. For each increase of precipitation, the average increase of runoff is about 18.33.For each increase of air temperature, the average decrease of runoff is about 4.1cm).) the runoff changes of land use in 1985, 2000 and 2015 under the same climate conditions were studied respectively. When the climate is the same, the runoff under land use was the largest in 2000, followed by 2015. The minimum was runoff under land use in 1985.) the runoff rate under extreme land use scenarios was the highest under scenario 3 (grassland), and the average annual runoff value was the highest in scenario 3 (grassland). Secondly, scenario 2 (forestland, scenario 1 (cultivated land), the minimum annual runoff value. 6) Land use and climate change all lead to the change of runoff in different degrees, in which the change of land use is obviously greater than the effect of climate change. About 90% are caused by land use change, and the impact of climate change on runoff is only 10%. Therefore, in the future water resources management of the Davin River Basin, attention should be paid to land use trends and corresponding management measures should be taken. In order to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the water ecological environment in the Davin River Basin.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：濟(jì)南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：P333.1

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