本文關(guān)鍵詞： 土石壩 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法 灰色模糊綜合評(píng)判　出處：《鄭州大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：土石壩是國(guó)內(nèi)應(yīng)用最為廣泛、發(fā)展最快的壩型，然而由于各種原因，很多早期建設(shè)的土石壩存在著較為嚴(yán)重的安全隱患。通過(guò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析可以有效識(shí)別出影響土石壩安全的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素，合理評(píng)價(jià)土石壩的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度，并指導(dǎo)病險(xiǎn)水庫(kù)的除險(xiǎn)加固或改擴(kuò)建，具有很好的實(shí)際意義。 針對(duì)土石壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的復(fù)雜性和不確定性問(wèn)題，將網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法和灰色模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論引入土石壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析中，建立基于改進(jìn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法的灰色模糊綜合評(píng)判模型，并將其應(yīng)用于實(shí)際工程中，驗(yàn)證了模型的可行性。主要研究?jī)?nèi)容如下： (1)根據(jù)我國(guó)實(shí)際情況，考慮我國(guó)大中型、小型水庫(kù)存在的差異以及東、西部文化、經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口密度等方面的不同，分別建立適用于我國(guó)東、西部的大中型和小型水庫(kù)大壩的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。 (2)以層次分析法為基礎(chǔ)，詳細(xì)闡述網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法的結(jié)構(gòu)原理和極限相對(duì)排序向量的計(jì)算方法，，并從標(biāo)度和判斷矩陣的構(gòu)造入手引入三角模糊指數(shù)標(biāo)度，對(duì)傳統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法進(jìn)行改進(jìn)。 (3)在網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法、灰色模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論的基礎(chǔ)上，建立基于改進(jìn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法的灰色模糊綜合評(píng)判模型；將評(píng)判模型應(yīng)用于土石壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析，構(gòu)建土石壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的指標(biāo)體系和網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)圖，制定各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)的等級(jí)劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，給出各指標(biāo)權(quán)重計(jì)算的方法和步驟，確定各指標(biāo)隸屬函數(shù)的選取。 (4)應(yīng)用土石壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)判模型對(duì)某水庫(kù)大壩工程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)，評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)論符合水庫(kù)的實(shí)際情況，驗(yàn)證了模型的可行性。
[Abstract]:Earth-rock dam is the most widely used and fastest developing dam in China, however, due to various reasons. Many earth-rock dams built in the early stage have serious hidden dangers. Through risk analysis, the main risk factors affecting the safety of earth-rock dams can be effectively identified and the risk degree of earth-rock dams can be reasonably evaluated. It is of great practical significance to guide the reinforcement or reconstruction of the dangerous reservoir. Aiming at the complexity and uncertainty of the risk analysis of earth-rock dam, the network analysis method and the grey fuzzy mathematics theory are introduced into the risk analysis of earth-rock dam. The grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on improved network analysis method is established and applied to practical engineering to verify the feasibility of the model. The main research contents are as follows: According to the actual situation of our country, considering the differences of large and medium-sized reservoirs and small reservoirs in our country, as well as the differences in culture, economy, population density and so on in the east and west of China, respectively, they are applicable to the east of our country. Risk criteria for large and small reservoir dams in the west. Based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the structure principle of the network analysis method and the calculation method of the limit relative sort vector are expounded in detail, and the triangular fuzzy exponential scale is introduced from the construction of the scale and judgment matrix. The traditional network analysis method is improved. 3) on the basis of network analysis method and grey fuzzy mathematics theory, the grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on improved network analysis method is established. The evaluation model is applied to the risk analysis of earth-rock dam, the index system and network structure diagram of the risk analysis of earth-rock dam are constructed, the classification standard of each risk index is formulated, and the methods and steps of calculating the weight of each index are given. Determine the selection of membership function of each index. 4) the comprehensive evaluation model of the risk of earth-rock dam is used to evaluate the risk situation of a reservoir dam project. The evaluation results are in line with the actual situation of the reservoir, and the feasibility of the model is verified.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：鄭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV641

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 宋恩來(lái);國(guó)內(nèi)幾座大壩事故原因分析[J];大壩與安全;2000年02期

2 樓漸逵;加拿大BC Hydro公司的大壩安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理[J];大壩與安全;2000年04期

3 龔瑞瑞;黃海龍;;大壩安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)研究[J];水利與建筑工程學(xué)報(bào);2011年01期

4 宋敬圴;何鮮峰;;我國(guó)潰壩生命風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法探討[J];河海大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2008年05期

5 陳大為;灰色模糊集合(待續(xù))[J];黑龍江水專學(xué)報(bào);2000年04期

6 陳大為;灰色模糊集合(續(xù)完)[J];黑龍江水專學(xué)報(bào);2001年01期

7 劉亞蓮;周翠英;;土石壩安全的模糊層次綜合評(píng)價(jià)及其應(yīng)用[J];水力發(fā)電;2010年05期

8 朱曉紅;瓦利奇大壩風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制[J];水利水電快報(bào);1997年12期

9 徐祖信,郭子中;開敞式溢洪道泄洪風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)算[J];水利學(xué)報(bào);1989年04期

10 鄧曦東;王春燕;;工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的灰色模糊評(píng)判方法研究[J];三峽大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2007年01期

本文編號(hào)：1471498