【摘要】：隨著化石能源日趨枯竭以及低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的需要，風(fēng)力發(fā)電和光伏發(fā)電等潔凈的可再生能源發(fā)電越來越受到世界各國的普遍重視。然而由于風(fēng)速和太陽能光照強(qiáng)度具有較大的隨機(jī)性和間歇性，風(fēng)電機(jī)組和光伏發(fā)電的有功出力均會(huì)產(chǎn)生隨機(jī)變化，大規(guī)模風(fēng)電和光伏發(fā)電并網(wǎng)將對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)的安全運(yùn)行和最優(yōu)潮流產(chǎn)生較大影響。本文采用概率潮流分析方法對(duì)含風(fēng)光互補(bǔ)發(fā)電系統(tǒng)的電力系統(tǒng)的安全性進(jìn)行了研究。 首先介紹了概率潮流計(jì)算的數(shù)學(xué)研究基礎(chǔ)和分析工具，給出了半不變量、Gram-Charlier級(jí)數(shù)、Nataf分布等數(shù)學(xué)概念的定義，以及Matpower工具在潮流計(jì)算中的應(yīng)用方法。 其次，，建立了基于Gram-Charlier級(jí)數(shù)和Nataf逆變換的含風(fēng)-光電場的概率潮流計(jì)算模型。給出了風(fēng)電場和光伏電場的的出力概率模型，提出了一種基于Nataf逆變換的風(fēng)電場風(fēng)速相關(guān)性處理方法，建立了基于Gram-Charlier級(jí)數(shù)和半不變量的支路、節(jié)點(diǎn)概率潮流線性化模型，建立了發(fā)電機(jī)停運(yùn)及支路隨機(jī)斷線模型。 最后，給出了含風(fēng)-光電場的概率潮流分析算法流程，在Matlab環(huán)境下應(yīng)用Matpower工具箱以IEEE-57節(jié)點(diǎn)系統(tǒng)為例進(jìn)行了電力系統(tǒng)概率潮流分析。算例中在IEEE57節(jié)點(diǎn)系統(tǒng)的不同節(jié)點(diǎn)（發(fā)電機(jī)節(jié)點(diǎn)和不含發(fā)電機(jī)節(jié)點(diǎn)處）分別并入風(fēng)電場、光伏電場以及風(fēng)光互補(bǔ)發(fā)電場，考慮風(fēng)速相關(guān)性、發(fā)電機(jī)停運(yùn)、支路隨機(jī)斷線的影響，分析了風(fēng)電場、光伏電場以及風(fēng)光互補(bǔ)發(fā)電場對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)節(jié)點(diǎn)電壓越限概率和系統(tǒng)潮流分布的影響。 概率潮流分析可以提供風(fēng)光互補(bǔ)發(fā)電系統(tǒng)并網(wǎng)對(duì)系統(tǒng)支路潮流的概率分布、并網(wǎng)節(jié)點(diǎn)電壓的概率分布、并網(wǎng)節(jié)點(diǎn)電壓越限概率等信息，并可用于指導(dǎo)運(yùn)行人員根據(jù)系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行狀況決定是否需要采取預(yù)防措施以及制定優(yōu)化的預(yù)防控制措施和緊急準(zhǔn)備預(yù)案，使系統(tǒng)保持在較高的安全運(yùn)行水平。
[Abstract]:With the increasing depletion of fossil energy and the need of low-carbon economy, clean renewable energy power generation, such as wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation, has been paid more and more attention by all countries in the world. However, due to the great randomness and intermittent nature of wind speed and solar light intensity, the active power output of wind turbine and photovoltaic power generation will change randomly. The grid connection of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power generation will have a great impact on the safe operation and optimal power flow of power system. In this paper, the probabilistic power flow analysis method is used to study the security of power system with wind and wind complementary power generation system. Firstly, the mathematical research basis and analysis tool of probabilistic power flow calculation are introduced, and the definitions of mathematical concepts such as semi-invariant, Gram-Charlier series, Nataf distribution and so on, as well as the application method of Matpower tool in power flow calculation are given. Secondly, a probabilistic power flow calculation model with wind-optical field based on Gram-Charlier series and Nataf inverse transformation is established. The output probability model of wind farm and photovoltaic field is given, a wind speed correlation processing method based on Nataf inverse transformation is proposed, and a branch and node probability power flow linearization model based on Gram-Charlier series and semi-invariant is established. The models of generator outage and branch random disconnection are established. Finally, the algorithm flow of probabilistic power flow analysis with wind-optical field is given, and the probabilistic power flow analysis of power system is carried out by using Matpower toolbox in Matlab environment. The probabilistic power flow of power system is analyzed by taking IEEE-57 node system as an example. In the example, the different nodes of IEEE57 node system (generator node and without generator node) are merged into wind farm, photovoltaic electric field and wind complementary power plant respectively, taking into account the influence of wind speed correlation, generator shutdown and branch random line break. The effects of wind farm, photovoltaic field and wind / wind complementary power field on the probability of voltage overrun and the distribution of power flow in power system are analyzed. The probabilistic power flow analysis can provide the probability distribution of the grid-connected power flow to the branch power flow of the grid-connected power generation system, and the probability that the voltage of the connected node exceeds the limit, and so on. It can be used to guide operators to decide whether preventive measures need to be taken according to the operation status of the system, as well as to formulate optimized preventive and control measures and emergency preparation plans, so as to keep the system at a high level of safe operation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津職業(yè)技術(shù)師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM744;TM61

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