【摘要】：當(dāng)今社會(huì)化石燃料不斷消耗、環(huán)境問(wèn)題日益突出,新能源發(fā)電項(xiàng)目的建設(shè)如火如荼。迫切需要一套客觀科學(xué)的評(píng)價(jià)方法對(duì)新能源發(fā)電項(xiàng)目的各個(gè)方面進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),找出項(xiàng)目的優(yōu)勢(shì)和不足,總結(jié)經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn),為項(xiàng)目運(yùn)營(yíng)中出現(xiàn)的問(wèn)題和未來(lái)新項(xiàng)目的決策提出建議。目前,新能源發(fā)電項(xiàng)目評(píng)價(jià)方法的研究已經(jīng)取得了一些成果,但已有研究多是針對(duì)新能源電站的某一個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)方面提出一種具體的評(píng)價(jià)方法,尚未形成具有一定指導(dǎo)原則的多目標(biāo)綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法理論體系。為此,論文建立了將“宏觀層面”的綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法與“微觀層面”的基本評(píng)價(jià)方法相結(jié)合的“多維度評(píng)價(jià)方法體系”。在宏觀層面上,針對(duì)技術(shù)性能、經(jīng)濟(jì)效益、社會(huì)影響和項(xiàng)目總體效果四個(gè)評(píng)價(jià)維度的不同特點(diǎn),分別采用變權(quán)灰云模型、數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)／保證域法、成功度模糊綜合評(píng)判法和改進(jìn)雷達(dá)圖法進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià)；在微觀層面上,針對(duì)重要指標(biāo)評(píng)價(jià)維度選擇對(duì)比分析法、比率分析法、因素替換法、曲線擬合法等基本評(píng)價(jià)方法進(jìn)一步深入分析。通過(guò)某風(fēng)力發(fā)電項(xiàng)目2個(gè)運(yùn)營(yíng)期的評(píng)價(jià)算例驗(yàn)證了所提出評(píng)價(jià)方法體系的實(shí)用性和有效性。此外,論文根據(jù)新能源發(fā)電項(xiàng)目技術(shù)性能評(píng)價(jià)的特點(diǎn),提出了變權(quán)灰云模型的評(píng)價(jià)方法評(píng)價(jià)技術(shù)性能。該方法針對(duì)灰色聚類白化權(quán)函數(shù)形式固定的缺陷,采用正態(tài)灰云模型取代傳統(tǒng)白化權(quán)函數(shù),有效反映了評(píng)價(jià)等級(jí)信息的模糊性和隨機(jī)性；同時(shí),為避免不合格指標(biāo)的消極影響被掩蓋,引入“懲罰型”狀態(tài)變權(quán)向量修正常權(quán)權(quán)重,對(duì)不合格的指標(biāo)進(jìn)行懲罰,通過(guò)與灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法的評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果比較,驗(yàn)證了變權(quán)的合理性和優(yōu)越性。通過(guò)對(duì)4個(gè)典型風(fēng)電場(chǎng)的實(shí)例進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià),驗(yàn)證了上述方法的有效性。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, fossil fuel consumption and environmental problems are becoming more and more serious, and the construction of new energy generation projects is in full swing. There is an urgent need for a set of objective and scientific evaluation methods to evaluate all aspects of the new energy generation project, find out the advantages and disadvantages of the project, sum up the experience and lessons, and put forward suggestions for the problems in the project operation and the decision of the new project in the future. At present, some achievements have been made in the research of new energy power generation project evaluation methods, but most of the studies have put forward a specific evaluation method for a new energy power station. The theoretical system of multi-objective comprehensive evaluation method with certain guiding principles has not yet been formed. Therefore, the paper establishes a "multi-dimensional evaluation method system" which combines the comprehensive evaluation method of "macro level" with the basic evaluation method of "micro level". On the macro level, according to the different characteristics of the four dimensions of technical performance, economic benefit, social impact and overall effect of the project, the variable weight grey cloud model, the data envelopment / assurance domain method, are adopted respectively. The method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of degree of success and the improved radar map method are used for comprehensive evaluation, and at the micro level, the comparative analysis method, the ratio analysis method and the factor replacement method are selected for the evaluation dimension of important indexes. The basic evaluation methods, such as curve fitting method, are further analyzed. The practicability and validity of the proposed evaluation method are verified by the evaluation examples of a wind power project in two operating periods. In addition, according to the characteristics of technical performance evaluation of new energy power generation project, the paper puts forward the evaluation method of variable weight grey cloud model to evaluate the technical performance. Aiming at the fixed form of grey clustering whitening weight function, the normal gray cloud model is used to replace the traditional whitening weight function, which effectively reflects the fuzziness and randomness of the evaluation grade information. In order to avoid the negative influence of the unqualified index being concealed, the "penalty type" state variable weight vector is introduced to revise the normal weight, and the unqualified index is punished. The evaluation results are compared with those of the grey relational analysis method. The rationality and superiority of variable weight are verified. The effectiveness of the above method is verified by comprehensive evaluation of four typical wind farms.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TM61

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本文編號(hào)：2285636