發(fā)布時間：2018-06-08 05:47

  本文選題：電動汽車 + 充換電設(shè)施��； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：在能源危機(jī)和環(huán)境惡化壓力下,全球已進(jìn)入發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的新時代。發(fā)展電動汽車作為解決能源和環(huán)境問題的重要手段,得到各國政府和企業(yè)的高度關(guān)注。以新能源汽車為標(biāo)志的新一輪技術(shù)革命,為我國的汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級,真正實(shí)現(xiàn)自主創(chuàng)新和技術(shù)追趕提供了歷史性的機(jī)遇。電動汽車充換電設(shè)施建設(shè)是大力發(fā)展電動汽車的基礎(chǔ),只有建立完善的電動汽車充換電基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,才能大規(guī)模普及推廣電動汽車的應(yīng)用。目前,電動汽車行業(yè)正處于起步階段,其發(fā)展存在諸多不確定因素,電動汽車充換電設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目存在風(fēng)險。它不完全等同于電網(wǎng)公司原來的變電站項(xiàng)目,存在一定的不確定因素,而這些不確定因素可能導(dǎo)致一些不可避免的風(fēng)險,進(jìn)而對充換電設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的實(shí)施以及未來的運(yùn)營帶來不利的影響。因此有必要對充換電設(shè)施項(xiàng)目展開相關(guān)研究,以求在進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目建設(shè)的過程中合理規(guī)劃、科學(xué)布局、規(guī)避風(fēng)險。 本文首先介紹了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險識別、評價及規(guī)避策略的基本理論,將項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險管理理論引入電動汽車充換電設(shè)施項(xiàng)目管理中。采用德爾菲法識別了電動汽車充換電設(shè)施項(xiàng)目面臨的技術(shù)因素、市場因素、政策因素、充換電設(shè)施建設(shè)及運(yùn)營服務(wù)因素及資金因素等風(fēng)險因素。在此基礎(chǔ)上,確定各指標(biāo)權(quán)重,并使用模糊綜合評價法對風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了評價,構(gòu)建電動汽車換電站建設(shè)項(xiàng)目綜合評價指標(biāo)體系；運(yùn)用層次分析法(AHP法)計(jì)算各級綜合評價指標(biāo)權(quán)重,分析不同因子對總體風(fēng)險的影響程度,在多級模糊綜合評價模型(FCE)下定量研究當(dāng)前換電站建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的不確定因素情況；根據(jù)風(fēng)險因素分析結(jié)果提出基于政策風(fēng)險、市場風(fēng)險、技術(shù)風(fēng)險、電動汽車充換電設(shè)施建設(shè)及運(yùn)營服務(wù)風(fēng)險和資金風(fēng)險等不同風(fēng)險因素的風(fēng)險規(guī)避措施。論文對電動汽車充換電設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目面臨的不確定風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行了研究,對其面臨的不確定風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險識別及風(fēng)險評價,提出了規(guī)避風(fēng)險的應(yīng)對策略,希望能為今后電動汽車充換電設(shè)施項(xiàng)目建設(shè)提供一定的參考。
[Abstract]:Under the pressure of energy crisis and environmental deterioration, the world has entered a new era of developing low-carbon economy. The development of electric vehicles as an important means to solve energy and environmental problems has been highly concerned by governments and enterprises. The new round of technological revolution, marked by new energy vehicles, provides a historic opportunity for the transformation and upgrading of China's automobile industry and the realization of independent innovation and technological catch-up. The construction of electric vehicle charging and changing facilities is the foundation of developing electric vehicle. Only by establishing perfect electric vehicle charging and changing infrastructure can the application of electric vehicle be popularized on a large scale. At present, the electric vehicle industry is in its initial stage, and there are many uncertain factors in its development. It is not exactly equivalent to the original substation project of the power grid company, and there are certain uncertainties that may lead to some inevitable risks. Furthermore, it will bring adverse influence to the construction project of charging and switching facilities and the future operation. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out relevant research on charging and switching facilities in order to reasonably plan, scientifically distribute and avoid risks in the process of project construction. Firstly, this paper introduces the basic theory of project risk identification, evaluation and evading strategy. This paper introduces the theory of project risk management into the project management of electric vehicle charging and switching facilities. The Delphi method is used to identify the technical factors, market factors, policy factors, construction and operation service factors and fund factors of electric vehicle charging and switching facilities. On this basis, the weight of each index is determined, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk, and the comprehensive evaluation index system of electric vehicle power station construction project is constructed. Using AHP (Analytic hierarchy process) to calculate the weight of comprehensive evaluation indexes at all levels, to analyze the influence of different factors on the overall risk, and to quantitatively study the uncertain factors of the current power station construction projects under the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCE). According to the results of risk factor analysis, the risk aversion measures based on different risk factors, such as policy risk, market risk, technical risk, electric vehicle charging and switching facility construction, operation service risk and capital risk, are put forward. This paper studies the uncertain risk factors faced by the electric vehicle charging and switching facilities construction project, identifies and evaluates the uncertain risk factors it faces, and puts forward the countermeasures to avoid the risks. Hope to provide some reference for the future electric vehicle charging and changing facilities construction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U469.72;TM910.6

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本文編號：1994789