本文選題：風電工程 + 全壽命期��； 參考：《華北電力大學》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：風電日趨成為改變能源消費結(jié)構(gòu)的主角,其產(chǎn)業(yè)取得了長足發(fā)展,但如同任何一個行業(yè)一樣,風電行業(yè)為風力發(fā)電企業(yè)帶來機遇的同時也醞釀著巨大的未確知風險。對于風電企業(yè)來講,一個標準的風電工程全壽命期包括前期、基建期、生產(chǎn)運行維護期,風險存在于各個階段中且在各階段中進行傳遞,一個階段中的風險元則可能會造成另一個階段的損失。目前,風電工程風險是制約我國現(xiàn)階段風電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展至關重要的因素,風電工程全壽命期的風險管理理論體系尚缺乏成熟,未能對風電開發(fā)項目實施進行行之有效的指導。因此,開展風電工程全壽命期風險管理研究成為突破風電開發(fā)關鍵點的當務之急,也是實現(xiàn)我國風電產(chǎn)業(yè)良性發(fā)展的不可或缺的條件。 論文針對風電工程風險管理問題,以風電工程全壽命期為路線,將風險元傳遞理論應用其中,通過構(gòu)建風電工程前期風險元傳遞模型、風電工程基建期風險元傳遞均衡優(yōu)化模型、風電工程運維期風險管理模型,并提出風電工程全壽命期風險管理信息系統(tǒng)的建設方案,旨在探討風電工程前期、基建期、運維期的風險管理體系,以便為風電工程管理者決策提供參考依據(jù),使得風電工程的風險可以得到控制,進而保證項目的順利實施和項目目標的實現(xiàn)。 (1)風電工程全壽命期風險管理理論及其產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展分析。在闡述風險基本理論、風險元傳遞理論的基礎上提出了風電工程全壽命期風險管理的結(jié)構(gòu)模型,結(jié)合相關調(diào)研資料、文獻資料、行業(yè)研究報告、統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)、相關政策和法規(guī)等,采用定性方法,識別并分析了影響中國風電產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的SWOT因素,分析了產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展背景下風電工程風險元的特點。 (2)構(gòu)建了風電工程前期風險管理模型。根據(jù)風電工程前期風險元的特點,分析了風險元的分布情況,在此基礎上提出了風電工程前期風險元傳遞的結(jié)構(gòu),構(gòu)建了風電工程前期基于RBF神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡型風險元傳遞模型,并進行了算例仿真,測試結(jié)果表明所建立的風險元傳遞模型具有正確性和可行性,為風電工程前期風險管理者提供決策依據(jù),也為后續(xù)有關風電工程基建期和運維期的風險管理研究提供了前提條件。 (3)構(gòu)建了風電工程基建期風險管理模型。在分析風電工程基建期工期-成本-質(zhì)量風險特點的基礎上,構(gòu)建了風電工程工期-成本-質(zhì)量風險元傳遞均衡優(yōu)化模型,確定了決策變量和目標函數(shù),提出了模型求解的模擬退火粒子群算法原理和計算步驟,以一個風電工程為例,用MATLAB編寫程序?qū)υ撃Ｐ瓦M行求解得到Pareto解,并生成三維與二維pareto圖像,不僅驗證了風電工程工期-成本-質(zhì)量風險元傳遞均衡優(yōu)化模型的可行性,還為風電工程基建期管理者提供了有效的決策依據(jù)。 (4)構(gòu)建了風電工程運維期風險管理模型。建立了基于OWA算子的風能利用的環(huán)境影響模型,最后通過算例分析驗證了模型的科學性和有效性,并且為風電場的風險管理提出了具有針對性的改進措施；在綜合考慮微電網(wǎng)的可靠性、微電網(wǎng)運行耗損費用、維護費用、擴展方案總費用等基礎上,建立了微電網(wǎng)中風力-火電聯(lián)合發(fā)電的風險管理模型,利用和聲搜索算法模擬了一個5節(jié)點的微電網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)在10年內(nèi)的電源規(guī)劃擴展方案,模擬結(jié)果表明該模型具有可行性和有效性。 (5)提出了風電工程全壽命期RMIS的建設與實施方案,對風電工程全壽命期RMIS進行了用戶需求分析、風險業(yè)務流程分析、數(shù)據(jù)流程分析,對風電工程全壽命期RMIS進行了總體設計、網(wǎng)絡應用模式設計、功能模塊結(jié)構(gòu)設計、數(shù)據(jù)表結(jié)構(gòu)設計；進行了基于Hadoop的RMIS與SCADA系統(tǒng)集成設計,基于SOA的計算模型集成設計；對系統(tǒng)實施的成功因素進行了分析,提出了系統(tǒng)實施的8個步驟；最后,實現(xiàn)了風電工程全壽命期RMIS。為整個風電工程RMIS的順利實施提供了解決方案,增強了風電工程全壽命期風險管理理論的實用性,提供了全壽命期風險管理的信息化平臺。
[Abstract]:Wind power has become the leading role in changing the energy consumption structure, and its industry has made great progress, but like any industry, wind power industry brings opportunities to wind power enterprises as well as huge Unascertained Risk. For wind power enterprises, a standard wind power life span period includes the early period, the infrastructure period, and the life period. During the operation and maintenance period, the risk exists in every stage and is transmitted in various stages, and the risk element in one stage may cause the loss of another stage. At present, the risk of wind power engineering is the most important factor restricting the development of the current wind power industry in China, and the risk management theory system of the whole life period of the wind power project is still lacking. Mature, failure to carry out effective guidance on the implementation of wind power development projects. Therefore, it is an urgent task to carry out the risk management research of wind power life life period. It is also an indispensable condition to realize the benign development of wind power industry in China.
In view of the risk management of wind power project, the risk element transfer theory is applied in the whole life period of wind power engineering, the risk element transfer model of wind power project is constructed, the risk element transfer model of wind power project is transferred in the base period, the risk management model of wind power engineering operation and maintenance period, and the whole life period of wind power project is put forward. The construction plan of the risk management information system aims to discuss the risk management system in the early stage of the wind power project, the construction period and the operation and maintenance period, so as to provide the reference basis for the decision making of the wind power project manager, and make the risk of the wind power project be controlled, thus ensuring the smooth implementation of the project and the realization of the project goal.
(1) the risk management theory and industry development analysis of the whole life period of wind power project. Based on the basic theory of risk and the theory of risk element transfer, the structure model of the risk management of the whole life period of wind power project is put forward, which combines related research data, literature, Industry Research Report, statistical data, related policies and regulations and so on. Methods identify and analyze the SWOT factors that affect the sustainable development of China's wind power industry, and analyze the characteristics of risk elements of wind power projects under the background of industrial sustainable development.
(2) the early risk management model of wind power project is built. According to the characteristics of the early risk element of the wind power project, the distribution of risk element is analyzed. On this basis, the structure of the risk element transfer in the early stage of the wind power project is put forward, and the risk element transfer model based on the RBF neural network in the early stage of the wind power project is constructed, and the example simulation is carried out and the test is tested. The results show that the established risk element transfer model is correct and feasible, provides the decision basis for the early risk managers of the wind power project, and provides the precondition for the follow-up research on risk management in the construction period of wind power project and the operation and maintenance period.
(3) the risk management model of the construction period of wind power project is constructed. On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of the period cost quality risk of the wind power project, a time cost mass risk element transfer equilibrium optimization model for wind power project is constructed, the decision variables and the target functions are determined, and the principle of simulated annealing particle swarm optimization (PSO) is proposed and the model is solved. The calculation step, taking a wind power project as an example, uses the MATLAB program to solve the model to get the Pareto solution, and generates three-dimensional and two-dimensional Pareto images. It not only validates the feasibility of the wind power project time cost mass risk element transfer equilibrium optimization model, but also provides effective decision-making basis for the managers of the wind power engineering construction period.
(4) the risk management model of wind power project operation and maintenance period is constructed. The environmental impact model of wind energy utilization based on OWA operator is established. Finally, the scientificity and effectiveness of the model are verified by an example analysis, and the targeted improvement measures are put forward for the risk management of the wind farm. The reliability of the microgrid and the micro grid are taken into consideration. The risk management model of wind power combined power generation in microgrid is set up on the basis of running cost, maintenance cost and total project cost, and a power planning extension scheme for a 5 node microgrid system in 10 years is simulated by harmonic search algorithm. The simulation results show the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.
(5) the construction and implementation plan of the whole life period RMIS of wind power project is put forward. The user demand analysis, the risk business process analysis, the data flow analysis are carried out for the whole life period RMIS of the wind power project, and the whole life period RMIS of the wind power project is designed, the network application mode design, the function module structure design, the data sheet structure design; The integrated design of RMIS and SCADA system based on Hadoop, integrated design of calculation model based on SOA, analysis of the successful factors of the system implementation, and 8 steps of the system implementation are put forward. Finally, the whole life period RMIS. of the wind power project has been realized to provide a solution for the smooth implementation of the whole wind power engineering RMIS, and the wind electrician has been strengthened. The practicality of Cheng Quan's life cycle risk management theory provides an information platform for life cycle risk management.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TP315;F426.61;F272.3;F284

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