本文選題：智能交通系統(tǒng) + 交通狀態(tài)預(yù)測模型　； 參考：《南京航空航天大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：交通路網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)是城市構(gòu)建的脈絡(luò),交通路網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)運行通暢可以大大提高居民出行效率,從而促進城市高效、可持續(xù)發(fā)展。而日益增長的交通需求和世界范圍內(nèi)的城市交通擁堵問題制約了城市的發(fā)展。對城市交通系統(tǒng)運行狀態(tài)科學(xué)預(yù)測、控制和優(yōu)化可以提高城市交通管理水平。本文針對城市交通節(jié)點狀態(tài)預(yù)測、時間預(yù)測和誘導(dǎo)控制進行深入研究,構(gòu)建了交通狀態(tài)預(yù)測及控制模型、灰色行程時間預(yù)測模型、交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)路徑選擇模型,并開發(fā)了城市交通控制與誘導(dǎo)演示系統(tǒng)。主要內(nèi)容和結(jié)論如下:(1)交通狀態(tài)預(yù)測及控制模型�；诹髁渴睾阍砗徒煌鞣植继匦�,以單車道路段為研究對象,構(gòu)建了一種簡單易行的交通狀態(tài)預(yù)測模型,并以所預(yù)測的結(jié)果數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),構(gòu)建了單車道路段交通控制模型。通過采用VISSIM系統(tǒng)仿真推演,結(jié)果表明,所構(gòu)建的單車道路段交通狀態(tài)預(yù)測模型可以實時預(yù)測未來短時交通流狀態(tài),尤其在交通狀態(tài)處于擁擠流時具有較高預(yù)測精度;所構(gòu)建的單車道路段交通控制模型也合理可行,能夠有效地緩解交通擁擠的狀況。(2)灰色行程時間預(yù)測模型�？紤]在每一路段中,行程時間具有的“灰色”特性,分別針對正常行駛路段和交通事故路段2種情形,構(gòu)建了正常行駛時路段灰色行程時間預(yù)測模型和交通事故時路段灰色行程時間預(yù)測模型2類模型,VISSIM仿真結(jié)果表明,所構(gòu)建的2種灰色行程時間預(yù)測模型是可行的,能夠進行短時行程時間預(yù)測。(3)交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)路徑選擇模型。基于動態(tài)交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)圖構(gòu)建了城市交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)路徑選擇模型,給出了灰色動態(tài)交通路徑規(guī)劃問題求解的算法步驟,選取南京市江寧區(qū)勝太路相鄰區(qū)域作為案例進行分析,通過VISSIM仿真,表明所構(gòu)建的路徑選擇和規(guī)劃模型是有效的,能夠為出行提供有效地決策支持。(4)交通控制與誘導(dǎo)演示系統(tǒng)開發(fā)�；贗TS思想設(shè)計了城市交通控制與誘導(dǎo)演示系統(tǒng)總體框架,給出了交通控制與誘導(dǎo)演示系統(tǒng)三個主要部分的運行流程,包括交通狀態(tài)預(yù)測系統(tǒng)、交通控制系統(tǒng)和交通誘導(dǎo)系統(tǒng),并采用MATLAB編寫了一個城市交通控制與誘導(dǎo)演示系統(tǒng)。
[Abstract]:Traffic network system is the context of urban construction. The smooth operation of traffic network system can greatly improve the travel efficiency of residents, thus promoting urban efficiency and sustainable development. The increasing traffic demand and the problem of traffic congestion in the world restrict the development of the city. The control and optimization of urban traffic system can improve the level of urban traffic management. In this paper, the traffic state prediction and control model, the grey travel time prediction model, the traffic network path selection model, and the traffic state prediction and control model are built, which are based on the research of the urban traffic node state prediction, time prediction and guidance control. A demonstration system of urban traffic control and guidance is developed. The main contents and conclusions are as follows: 1) Traffic state prediction and control model. Based on the principle of traffic conservation and the characteristics of traffic flow distribution, a simple and easy traffic state prediction model is constructed, and a traffic control model of single-lane section is constructed based on the predicted data. The simulation results of VISSIM system show that the proposed model can predict the future traffic flow in real time, especially when the traffic condition is in congested flow. The traffic control model of single-lane section is also reasonable and feasible, which can effectively alleviate the traffic congestion. Considering the "grey" characteristics of the travel time in each section of the road, it aims at two kinds of cases, namely, the normal driving section and the traffic accident section. The grey travel time prediction model of normal driving section and the grey travel time prediction model of traffic accident section are constructed. The simulation results show that the two grey travel time prediction models are feasible. It can predict the short-time travel time. Based on the dynamic traffic network diagram, the route selection model of urban traffic network is constructed, the algorithm steps of solving the grey dynamic traffic path planning problem are given, and the adjacent areas of Shengtai Road in Jiangning District of Nanjing City are selected as a case study. VISSIM simulation shows that the proposed path selection and planning model is effective and can provide effective decision support for travel. 4) the demonstration system for traffic control and guidance is developed. Based on the idea of ITS, the overall framework of the demonstration system of urban traffic control and guidance is designed, and the running flow of three main parts of the demonstration system of traffic control and guidance is given, including the traffic state prediction system, the traffic control system and the traffic guidance system. A demonstration system of urban traffic control and guidance is developed by using MATLAB.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U495

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