基于時(shí)空可達(dá)性的家庭活動(dòng)模式?jīng)Q策及仿真
本文選題:家庭活動(dòng)模式 + 聯(lián)合活動(dòng)識(shí)別; 參考:《昆明理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文
【摘要】:隨著城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)日趨完善,城市交通規(guī)劃的重心已開始由“設(shè)施規(guī)劃”轉(zhuǎn)向“政策設(shè)計(jì)”。而政策設(shè)計(jì)的關(guān)鍵是理解人類行為響應(yīng)及演變規(guī)律。活動(dòng)理論是人類行為研究的重要理論,該理論認(rèn)為任何個(gè)體的行為決策除了受時(shí)空間約束外,還要受家庭其他成員的制約。而時(shí)空可達(dá)性正是在這種時(shí)空約束下,研究個(gè)體或群體潛在行為選擇和人與人之間交互潛在可能性的重要方法。因此,本論文以家庭作為研究單元,強(qiáng)調(diào)家庭對(duì)個(gè)體活動(dòng)出行決策的影響。首先,通過時(shí)空路徑方法,提出了集成替代聯(lián)合活動(dòng)的時(shí)空路徑表達(dá),并在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上實(shí)現(xiàn)了家庭聯(lián)合活動(dòng)的識(shí)別及其可視化;其次,利用時(shí)空可達(dá)性理論,構(gòu)建了既能體現(xiàn)成員間相互影響,又能反應(yīng)活動(dòng)之間相互關(guān)聯(lián)的家庭活動(dòng)模式?jīng)Q策模型;再次,利用計(jì)算機(jī)語言,實(shí)現(xiàn)了家庭活動(dòng)模式?jīng)Q策過程的模擬,以便更好地理解家庭活動(dòng)模式?jīng)Q策中的交互過程。具體研究工作如下:第一,闡述了時(shí)空路徑方法和時(shí)空可達(dá)性理論在人類時(shí)空間行為及人際交互行為研究中的優(yōu)勢(shì)和應(yīng)用;同時(shí),考慮到家庭活動(dòng)中普遍存在的替代聯(lián)合活動(dòng),即活動(dòng)需求者和執(zhí)行者不一致的活動(dòng),論文對(duì)傳統(tǒng)時(shí)空路徑進(jìn)行了擴(kuò)展,使之能夠表達(dá)替代聯(lián)合活動(dòng),從而完善時(shí)空路徑方法在人際交互關(guān)系中的表達(dá)。第二,基于面向?qū)ο蟮慕7椒?從家庭替代聯(lián)合活動(dòng)時(shí)空特征及其成員交互特征入手,構(gòu)建家庭活動(dòng)出行時(shí)空數(shù)據(jù)模型。同時(shí),利用地點(diǎn)協(xié)同、時(shí)間共享和活動(dòng)類型三個(gè)識(shí)別標(biāo)準(zhǔn),結(jié)合時(shí)空數(shù)據(jù)模型實(shí)現(xiàn)了家庭聯(lián)合活動(dòng)出行的識(shí)別;并基于Visual Studio 2010和ArcEngine,利用C#作為開發(fā)語言,開發(fā)了一個(gè)可同時(shí)表達(dá)替代聯(lián)合活動(dòng)的三維時(shí)空路徑可視化工具,進(jìn)而實(shí)現(xiàn)了在統(tǒng)一的時(shí)空約束下直觀分析家庭活動(dòng)出行行為模式及成員間的時(shí)空交互關(guān)系。第三,構(gòu)建了家庭活動(dòng)模式生成模型。考慮到家庭活動(dòng)模式?jīng)Q策中成員間以及活動(dòng)之間關(guān)聯(lián)性的特征,構(gòu)建家庭活動(dòng)偏好和成員組合偏好指標(biāo)體現(xiàn)家庭成員間的關(guān)聯(lián)性;構(gòu)建剩余時(shí)間預(yù)算指標(biāo)體現(xiàn)家庭活動(dòng)決策時(shí)活動(dòng)與活動(dòng)間的關(guān)聯(lián)性。此外,顧及活動(dòng)地點(diǎn)吸引力、出行距離衰減、活動(dòng)持續(xù)時(shí)間等因素,利用時(shí)空可達(dá)性理論,綜合考慮上述諸多因素,構(gòu)建時(shí)空可達(dá)性決策模型,用以支持成員活動(dòng)地點(diǎn)推薦以及家庭活動(dòng)模式推薦。第四,利用VBA編程語言,基于Excel開發(fā)工具設(shè)計(jì)了家庭活動(dòng)模式推薦工具,為家庭推薦最優(yōu)的活動(dòng)模式。并通過對(duì)比實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果中各類型活動(dòng)的參與者與調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)中對(duì)應(yīng)活動(dòng)的活動(dòng)參與者的一致性驗(yàn)證時(shí)空可達(dá)性決策模型的合理性。研究結(jié)果表明:集成替代聯(lián)合活動(dòng)的時(shí)空路徑,有助于在統(tǒng)一的時(shí)空約束下直觀分析家庭活動(dòng)出行模式,并在一定程度上有助于對(duì)家庭內(nèi)部交互作用機(jī)理的詮釋;根據(jù)聯(lián)合活動(dòng)識(shí)別結(jié)果,放寬對(duì)活動(dòng)時(shí)間的約束和對(duì)活動(dòng)目的/類型的要求,會(huì)提高聯(lián)合活動(dòng)識(shí)別效率;通過家庭活動(dòng)模式推薦工具的實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果和調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)的吻合度,驗(yàn)證了時(shí)空可達(dá)性決策模型的可行性。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of urban infrastructure construction, the focus of urban traffic planning has begun to shift from "facility planning" to "policy design". The key to policy design is to understand human behavior response and evolution law. Activity theory is an important theory of human behavior research. This theory holds that any individual behavior decision is subject to time and space. In addition, the spatial accessibility is an important way to study the potential behavior choice of individual or group and the potential possibility of interaction between people and people. Therefore, this paper takes family as a research unit to emphasize the influence of home court on individual activity decision. The spatio-temporal path method is proposed to express the spatio-temporal path of integrated alternative joint activities. On the basis of previous studies, the recognition and visualization of family joint activities are realized. Secondly, the family activity model which can reflect the interaction between members and interrelated activities can be constructed by using the time and space accessibility theory. Thirdly, the computer language is used to simulate the decision-making process of family activity pattern so as to better understand the interaction process in the decision making of family activity pattern. The specific research work is as follows: first, the advantages and advantages of spatio-temporal path method and spatio-temporal Accessibility Theory in the study of human spatial and temporal behavior and interpersonal interaction are expounded. At the same time, taking into account the common alternative joint activities in family activities, that is, the activities of the activity demand person and the executor, the paper extends the traditional space-time path to express the alternative joint activities so as to improve the expression of the spatio-temporal path method in the interpersonal relationship. Second, based on the object-oriented modeling. Methods, based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of family substitution and the interaction characteristics of members, the space-time data model of family activity travel is constructed. At the same time, three identification standards of location coordination, time sharing and activity type are used to recognize the family joint activities by combining time and space data model, and based on Visual Studio 2010 and ArcEngine, Using C# as the development language, we develop a three-dimensional spatio-temporal path visualization tool that can simultaneously express alternative joint activities, and then realize the intuitive analysis of family activity mode and the spatio-temporal interaction between members under the unified spatio-temporal constraints. Third, a model of generation of family activities is built. The characteristics of the association between members and activities in a pattern decision, the construction of family activity preference and the index of membership preferences reflect the relevance of family members; the construction of the remaining time budget indicators reflects the relationship between activities and activities in the decision-making of family activities. In addition, the attraction of the activities, the attenuation of travel distance, and the activity of the activities are taken into account. To continue the time and other factors, the time and space accessibility theory is used to synthetically consider the above factors to build a spatio-temporal accessibility decision model to support the recommendation of members' activities and the recommendation of family activities. Fourth, using the VBA programming language and based on the Excel development tool, the family activity model recommendation tool is designed to recommend the best living for the family. To verify the reasonableness of the spatio-temporal accessibility decision model by the consistency of the participants of various types of activities in the experimental results and the participants of the corresponding activities in the survey data. The results show that the spatio-temporal path of the integrated substitution of joint activities is helpful for the intuitive analysis of family activities under the unified spatio-temporal constraints. The model, to a certain extent, helps to interpret the internal interaction mechanism of the family. According to the recognition results of the joint activities, the constraints on the activity time and the requirements for the activities and types of activities will be relaxed, and the recognition efficiency of the joint activities will be improved; the experimental results of the tools and the consistency of the survey data are recommended through the family activity pattern. The feasibility of the spatio-temporal accessibility decision model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類號(hào)】:U491
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