本文選題：出行行為模型　切入點(diǎn)：智能體模型　出處：《清華大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,交通擁堵日益成為制約我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要因素。近年來(lái),北京、上海等大城市均出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的交通擁堵,影響了城市的健康發(fā)展。為解決交通擁堵問(wèn)題,政府部門(mén)采取了許多交通需求管理政策來(lái)促使出行者改變出發(fā)時(shí)間或從小汽車(chē)出行轉(zhuǎn)向公共交通、非機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)出行。研究表明,建立科學(xué)、合理的居民出行行為模型(出發(fā)時(shí)間選擇模型、出行方式選擇模型等)來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)政策實(shí)行后出行者的反應(yīng)對(duì)于評(píng)估交通系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行狀態(tài)具有重要作用。傳統(tǒng)的居民出行行為模型基于個(gè)人效用最大化原理,假定出行者具有完全理性和無(wú)限信息性,將會(huì)準(zhǔn)確評(píng)估出每個(gè)選擇肢的具體效用值,并選擇對(duì)個(gè)人效用值最大的選擇肢。但實(shí)際上,出行者具有有限理性和不完全信息性,并不能精準(zhǔn)地知道交通系統(tǒng)的實(shí)際情況,也往往不是選擇效用最高的選擇肢,而是根據(jù)經(jīng)驗(yàn)選擇一個(gè)相對(duì)滿(mǎn)意的選項(xiàng)。針對(duì)這個(gè)問(wèn)題,本文展開(kāi)基于智能體的出行行為模型(出發(fā)時(shí)間選擇模型和交通方式選擇模型)研究,放松傳統(tǒng)模型中出行者完全理性和獲取信息不需要成本的假定,建立更為符合出行者決策特點(diǎn)的出行行為模型。本文的研究成果主要包括以下幾點(diǎn):1.開(kāi)展了基于智能體的出發(fā)時(shí)間選擇模型和交通方式選擇模型理論研究,提出模型的框架主要包括搜索效益、搜索成本、搜索規(guī)則和決策規(guī)則四個(gè)方面,并用發(fā)生式規(guī)則(if-then)來(lái)模擬出行者的搜索和決策過(guò)程。另外,本文還從理論和模型表現(xiàn)上對(duì)比了基于智能體的出行行為模型和傳統(tǒng)基于個(gè)人效用最大化原理的Logti模型。2.本文深入研究了居民出行行為數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查方法,并結(jié)合研究要求,采用JAVASCRIPT和JAVA編程,設(shè)計(jì)了動(dòng)態(tài)網(wǎng)頁(yè)版問(wèn)卷和平板電腦APP版調(diào)查問(wèn)卷,并收集了研究所需數(shù)據(jù)。3.利用機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)算法,建立了基于智能體的出發(fā)時(shí)間選擇和出行模式選擇聯(lián)合模型。利用MATLAB將模型寫(xiě)成仿真程序,應(yīng)用在北京二環(huán)以?xún)?nèi)的路網(wǎng)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)上,分析了擁堵收費(fèi)和需求增加對(duì)出發(fā)時(shí)間和模式選擇結(jié)果的影響,結(jié)果顯示該模型能夠較好地預(yù)測(cè)出發(fā)時(shí)間改變和交通方式改變行為。4.將模型與開(kāi)源宏微觀(guān)交通仿真軟件TRANSIMS相集成,搭建了動(dòng)態(tài)交通規(guī)劃與仿真平臺(tái),以中新天津生態(tài)城為例進(jìn)行了應(yīng)用案例研究。結(jié)果顯示,基于智能體模型能與各種宏微觀(guān)仿真軟件的結(jié)合,并進(jìn)行場(chǎng)景和政策分析。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy, traffic congestion has increasingly become an important factor restricting the economic development of our country. In recent years, Beijing, Shanghai and other big cities have appeared serious traffic congestion, which has affected the healthy development of cities. In order to solve the problem of traffic congestion, The government has adopted a number of traffic demand management policies to encourage travelers to change departure times or switch from car to public transport, non-motorized travel. Reasonable travel behavior model (departure time selection model, To predict the response of travelers after the implementation of the policy plays an important role in evaluating the operating state of the transportation system. The traditional travel behavior model of residents is based on the principle of maximizing personal utility. Assuming that the traveler has complete rationality and infinite information, the specific utility value of each selected limb will be accurately evaluated, and the selected limb with the greatest personal utility value will be selected. But in reality, the traveler has limited rationality and incomplete information. You don't know exactly what's going on in the transportation system, and often you don't choose the most effective limb, but you choose a relatively satisfactory option based on experience. In this paper, the agent-based travel behavior model (departure time selection model and traffic mode selection model) is studied to relax the assumption that the travelers are completely rational and that obtaining information requires no cost in the traditional model. The main research results of this paper are as follows: 1. The theory of departure time selection model and traffic mode selection model based on agent is studied. The framework of the model mainly includes four aspects: search efficiency, search cost, search rules and decision rules, and use the generative rules to simulate the travelers' search and decision-making process. This paper also compares the agent-based travel behavior model with the traditional Logti model based on the principle of individual utility maximization. Using JAVASCRIPT and JAVA programming, the dynamic web version questionnaire and the tablet computer APP version questionnaire are designed, and the data needed for the research are collected. 3. The machine learning algorithm is used. A joint model of departure time selection and travel mode selection based on agent is established. The model is written as a simulation program by MATLAB and applied to the road network topology within the second ring ring of Beijing. The influence of congestion charge and increasing demand on departure time and mode selection result is analyzed. The results show that the model can predict departure time change and traffic mode change behavior. 4. The model is integrated with open source macro and micro traffic simulation software TRANSIMS, and a dynamic traffic planning and simulation platform is built. The application case study of Zhongxin Tianjin Ecological City is carried out. The results show that the agent model can be combined with various macro and micro simulation software, and the scene and policy can be analyzed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U491

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