本文關(guān)鍵詞：高速公路交通量預(yù)測及山區(qū)高速公路后評(píng)價(jià)研究　出處：《大連理工大學(xué)》2015年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 遺傳算法 支持向量機(jī)模型 山區(qū)高速公路 后評(píng)價(jià) 評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系 層次分析 模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法

【摘要】：山區(qū)高速公路后評(píng)價(jià)有利于發(fā)現(xiàn)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)過程中的缺點(diǎn)和不足,對(duì)于探索解決問題,改善項(xiàng)目管理現(xiàn)狀,提高決策、建造及管理水平具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義；對(duì)路段上的交通量進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測與分析,提高遠(yuǎn)景交通量的預(yù)測精度,可以在很大程度上減少因規(guī)劃設(shè)計(jì)失誤而造成的損失和浪費(fèi)。為了提高山區(qū)高速公路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目決策、建造及運(yùn)營管理水平,本文對(duì)高速公路交通量預(yù)測模型、山區(qū)高速公路后評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系及綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法進(jìn)行探索和研究,具體研究內(nèi)容如下： 1)基于Cat映射理論和GA (Genetic Algorithm)算法演化機(jī)制,提出新混沌自適應(yīng)遺傳算法(New Chaotic Adaptive Genetic Algorithm, NCAGA),用于RSVR (Support Vector Regression)模型參數(shù)優(yōu)選,設(shè)計(jì)新混沌自適應(yīng)遺傳算法優(yōu)化RSVR模型參數(shù)機(jī)制,利用主成分分析法(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)和相關(guān)性分析法,確定RSVR模型的輸入向量,提出PRSVR-NCAGA高速公路交通量預(yù)測模型。基于高速公路交通量數(shù)據(jù),開展預(yù)測研究,檢驗(yàn)提出算法和預(yù)測模型的可行性和優(yōu)越性。 2)針對(duì)山區(qū)高速公路自然生態(tài)環(huán)境脆弱和交通安全評(píng)價(jià)特殊性,建立了包含3個(gè)二級(jí)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)、14個(gè)三級(jí)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的山區(qū)高速公路環(huán)境影響后評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和包含7個(gè)二級(jí)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)、30個(gè)三級(jí)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的山區(qū)公路建設(shè)項(xiàng)目交通安全評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。結(jié)合各評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)值的特點(diǎn),基于隸屬度函數(shù),設(shè)計(jì)用于確定各評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的調(diào)查問卷,采用調(diào)查問卷的方式獲取評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)值,通過開展實(shí)證評(píng)價(jià),檢驗(yàn)建立的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的合理性和評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)獲取方式的可行性。 3)基于AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)法和模糊理論,提出AHP-FUZZY多級(jí)山區(qū)高速公路評(píng)價(jià)模型。結(jié)合后評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系建立面向山區(qū)特性的山區(qū)高速公路后評(píng)價(jià)方法。基于實(shí)際工程開展實(shí)證評(píng)價(jià)研究,完善提出的評(píng)價(jià)方法,驗(yàn)證提出的評(píng)價(jià)方法的可行性以及評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果的可靠性。 4)基于提出的山區(qū)高速公路后評(píng)價(jià)方法,對(duì)實(shí)際山區(qū)高速公路進(jìn)行后評(píng)價(jià)實(shí)證研究,結(jié)合評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果,揭示評(píng)價(jià)對(duì)象存在的問題,給出具體合理化應(yīng)對(duì)措施。
[Abstract]:The mountainous area highway post evaluation for the discovery of the project construction process of the shortcomings and deficiencies, to explore ways to solve problems, improve project management, improve decision-making, has important practical significance to the construction and management level; the accurate prediction and analysis of traffic on the road, improve the prediction accuracy of traffic in the future, can be reduced due to the planning and design of failure loss and waste to a great extent. In order to improve the highway construction project in decision-making, construction and operation management level, this article on highway traffic volume forecasting model of mountain highway post evaluation index system and comprehensive evaluation method of exploration and research, the main research contents are as follows:
1) Cat mapping theory and GA (Genetic Algorithm) algorithm based on chaotic evolution mechanism, put forward a new adaptive genetic algorithm (New Chaotic Adaptive Genetic Algorithm, NCAGA), RSVR (Support Vector Regression) is used for parameter optimization, parameter optimization mechanism of RSVR model to design new chaotic adaptive genetic algorithm, using principal component analysis (Principal Component Analysis PCA), and correlation analysis, to determine the input vector of RSVR model, the PRSVR-NCAGA highway traffic forecast model. Based on the data of highway traffic, to carry out prediction research, test the feasibility and superiority of the proposed algorithm and the prediction model.
2) evaluation according to the particularity of the natural ecological environment is fragile and the mountainous area highway traffic safety, including 3 level two indexes, the index system and contains 7 level two indexes evaluation of highway environment of the mountain area 14 level three indexes, the traffic safety evaluation index system of highway construction project 30 three grade evaluation according to the characteristics of each index. The evaluation index values, based on membership function is designed to determine the evaluation index of the questionnaire, using the questionnaire for the evaluation index value, through empirical evaluation, feasibility test to establish evaluation index system is reasonable and evaluation index of access methods.
3) based on AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method and fuzzy theory, and presents the AHP-FUZZY evaluation model is established. The multistage mountain mountain mountain highway oriented characteristics of the post evaluation index system evaluation combined. Research on empirical evaluation of actual engineering based on the evaluation method of improving the reliability evaluation method to validate the feasibility and evaluation of the results.
4) based on the post evaluation method of mountainous expressway, the post evaluation empirical study of real mountainous expressway is carried out, combined with the evaluation results, the problems of evaluation objects are revealed, and specific and reasonable countermeasures are given.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U491

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