本文選題：知識(shí)元 + 突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)　； 參考：《大連理工大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和社會(huì)發(fā)展,人類賴以生存的環(huán)境不斷惡化,自然災(zāi)害、事故災(zāi)難以及復(fù)合災(zāi)害引發(fā)的各類突發(fā)事件頻繁發(fā)生,嚴(yán)重地威脅著人類社會(huì)和諧發(fā)展。突發(fā)事件類別多樣,不同類型突發(fā)事件表現(xiàn)出來的個(gè)性特征存在著很大差異。突發(fā)事件發(fā)生發(fā)展的情境不同,突發(fā)事件之間的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系不同,同一突發(fā)事件將會(huì)出現(xiàn)不同的演化路徑。在突發(fā)事件的應(yīng)對(duì)過程中,應(yīng)急管理者面對(duì)大量的、多源的、異構(gòu)的信息,需要站在綜合、總體的層面識(shí)別出突發(fā)事件的發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)和演化方向,并在支持信息不完備的情況下快速、科學(xué)地進(jìn)行決策。通過提煉突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)的一般性規(guī)律,使應(yīng)急管理者從共性角度了解突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)的層次結(jié)構(gòu)和演化路徑,認(rèn)知突發(fā)事件發(fā)生演化的過程,為制定科學(xué)有效的應(yīng)對(duì)策略提供理論指導(dǎo)。 國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者從自然災(zāi)害、事故災(zāi)難、公共衛(wèi)生事件、社會(huì)安全事件等不同方面入手,研究特定領(lǐng)域內(nèi)突發(fā)事件的演化規(guī)律。鮮有將突發(fā)事件與所處情境視為一個(gè)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng),從系統(tǒng)視角研究突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)共性結(jié)構(gòu)特征和共性演化規(guī)律。在知識(shí)的視角下,知識(shí)元與特定領(lǐng)域知識(shí)無關(guān),使得利用知識(shí)元描述不同類型突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)要素的共性屬性特征,進(jìn)而構(gòu)建突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)共性結(jié)構(gòu)模型成為可能。如何對(duì)各種不同屬性特征的突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行分析,如何利用人們已有知識(shí)和知識(shí)管理模型,發(fā)掘各類突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)的共性結(jié)構(gòu)特征和演化規(guī)律,并以科學(xué)的符號(hào)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)一描述成為突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理中的關(guān)鍵問題。 本研究在上述背景下,通過分析突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)成,構(gòu)建突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)中事件知識(shí)元和承災(zāi)體知識(shí)元模型,在知識(shí)元模型的基礎(chǔ)上剖析突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)的共性結(jié)構(gòu)。界定突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)熵的概念,反映系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部無序程度,由風(fēng)險(xiǎn)熵和決策熵組成。以知識(shí)元模型為基礎(chǔ),在突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)共性結(jié)構(gòu)的框架內(nèi),研究突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)熵變過程,辨識(shí)系統(tǒng)的演化規(guī)律。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)熵是突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)熵演化基礎(chǔ),沒有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)熵,應(yīng)急管理者無需向系統(tǒng)注入決策熵,提出基于事件知識(shí)元的突發(fā)事件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)熵的預(yù)測(cè)方法。具體研究如下： (1)將突發(fā)事件與所處情境視為一個(gè)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng),分析突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)的組成,構(gòu)建了突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)中描述突發(fā)事件和客觀事物的事件知識(shí)元和承災(zāi)體知識(shí)元。解析突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)的共性結(jié)構(gòu),形式化描述各個(gè)層次,建立了基于知識(shí)元的突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)共性結(jié)構(gòu)模型。切分突發(fā)事件演化的時(shí)間域和情境的空間域,分析突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)的共性結(jié)構(gòu)特征,闡述突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部的熵現(xiàn)象,揭示突發(fā)事件發(fā)生本質(zhì)、演化實(shí)質(zhì)以及演化的客觀基礎(chǔ)。 (2)提出了用以表征系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部無序程度的突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)熵的概念,由系統(tǒng)中事件知識(shí)元實(shí)體對(duì)象的環(huán)境輸入屬性集提供的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)熵和應(yīng)急輸入屬性集提供的決策熵構(gòu)成。剖析了突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)熵的演化過程,將系統(tǒng)熵變歷程歸納為熵的積累期、熵的突變期和熵的衰退期。運(yùn)用突變論,基于知識(shí)元建立了突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)熵的突變模型,獲得系統(tǒng)熵的突變條件,確定系統(tǒng)熵穩(wěn)定態(tài)的參數(shù)區(qū)域。揭示了突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)熵的演化具有漸變和突變兩種演化形態(tài),包含滯后突變、超前突變、同步漸穩(wěn)和異步失穩(wěn)四種演化路徑。 (3)針對(duì)突發(fā)事件演化過程中影響因素多、實(shí)時(shí)觀測(cè)樣本數(shù)據(jù)少且維數(shù)高導(dǎo)致的無法定量描述事件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)熵的難題,提出了基于知識(shí)元的突發(fā)事件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)熵預(yù)測(cè)方法。采用投影尋蹤方法對(duì)突發(fā)事件的多因素觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行降維,獲得事件知識(shí)元實(shí)體對(duì)象高維輸入屬性集的一維投影特征值,以此單因素反映多因素的數(shù)據(jù)特征；利用信息擴(kuò)散理論將輸入屬性集的單因素投影特征值擴(kuò)散到輸出屬性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)論域的控制點(diǎn)上,獲得不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)突發(fā)事件的發(fā)生概率。借鑒信息熵理論,給出突發(fā)事件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)熵的計(jì)算方法,預(yù)測(cè)突發(fā)事件發(fā)生的可能性。 (4)以2008年我國(guó)南方雨雪冰凍事件系統(tǒng)為例,以長(zhǎng)沙市為研究區(qū)域,對(duì)雨雪冰凍事件系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)成方法和雨雪冰凍事件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)熵的預(yù)測(cè)過程進(jìn)行實(shí)例檢驗(yàn)。實(shí)例分析結(jié)果表明本研究提出的基于知識(shí)元的突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)共性結(jié)構(gòu)模型,便于描述突發(fā)事件發(fā)生規(guī)律和不同層次內(nèi)的演化規(guī)律�；谥R(shí)元的突發(fā)事件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)熵預(yù)測(cè)方法能夠根據(jù)觀測(cè)樣本的時(shí)間序列對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)熵進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),風(fēng)險(xiǎn)熵的變化趨勢(shì)與實(shí)際情況相吻合且符合熵變規(guī)律。 本研究以知識(shí)元為基礎(chǔ)系統(tǒng)地剖析了突發(fā)事件系統(tǒng)所具有的共性結(jié)構(gòu),論述了系統(tǒng)熵的演化規(guī)律,提出了突發(fā)事件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)熵的預(yù)測(cè)方法,為突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急管理的理論研究與實(shí)踐工作提供參考和借鑒。
[Abstract]:With the economic growth and social development, the environment for human survival is deteriorating, natural disasters, accident disasters and all kinds of sudden events caused by complex disasters are frequently occurring, which seriously threaten the harmonious development of human society. There are various types of sudden events, and there are great differences in personality characteristics displayed by different types of emergencies. There are different situations in the occurrence and development of emergencies, the relationship between emergencies is different, and the same sudden event will have different evolutionary paths. In the process of emergency response, the emergency manager faces a large number of, multi source, heterogeneous information, and the development trend and performance of the sudden events need to be identified and the overall level recognizes the development situation and performance of the unexpected events. In order to make the emergency managers understand the hierarchical structure and evolution path of the emergency system from the common point of view, the emergency managers can understand the evolution process of the emergencies and provide the scientific and effective coping strategies. Theoretical guidance.
From the different aspects of natural disasters, accident disasters, public health events, and social security events, scholars at home and abroad study the evolution law of sudden events in specific fields. There are few unexpected events and situations as a complex system. From the perspective of the system, the common structural features and common evolution laws of sudden event systems are studied. From the perspective of knowledge, the knowledge element is independent of the specific domain knowledge. It makes it possible to use knowledge element to describe the common attribute characteristics of the system elements of different types of emergencies, and then construct the general structure model of the emergency system. The knowledge management model is used to explore the common structure characteristics and evolution rules of all kinds of emergency system, and a unified description of the scientific symbols is the key problem in emergency management.
Under the above background, by analyzing the composition of the emergency system, this paper constructs the event knowledge element and the knowledge element model in the emergency system, analyzes the common structure of the emergency system on the basis of the knowledge meta model, defines the concept of the system entropy of the emergency, reflects the degree of disorder within the system, and the risk entropy and the decision making. Based on the knowledge metamodel, in the framework of the common structure of the emergency system, the entropy change process of the sudden event system is studied and the evolution law of the system is identified. The risk entropy is the basis of the entropy evolution of the emergency system, without the risk entropy, the emergency managers need not inject the decision entropy into the system, and put forward the unexpected events based on the event knowledge element. The prediction method of risk entropy is studied as follows:
(1) the sudden event and the situation are regarded as a complex system, and the composition of the emergency system is analyzed. The event knowledge element and the disaster body knowledge element, which describe the sudden events and the objective things in the emergency system, are constructed. The general structure of the emergency system is analyzed, the various levels are formally described, and the sudden events based on the knowledge element are established. The common structure model of part system. The time domain and the space domain of the burst event evolution are divided. The common structure features of the emergency system are analyzed, the entropy phenomenon in the emergency system is expounded, and the essence, the essence of the evolution and the objective basis of the evolution are revealed.
(2) the concept of system entropy, which is used to characterize the degree of disorder within the system, is proposed. It is composed of the entropy of risk and the decision entropy provided by the set of environmental input attributes of the entity object of the event knowledge element in the system. The entropy evolution process of the system is analyzed, and the entropy change process of the system is summed up as the product of entropy. The abrupt period of entropy and the decline period of entropy. By using the catastrophe theory, based on the knowledge element, the catastrophe model of the system entropy of the sudden event is established, the catastrophe condition of the system entropy is obtained and the parameter region of the entropy stable state of the system is determined. The evolution of the system entropy of the sudden event has two kinds of evolution form, including the gradual change and the sudden change, including the lag mutation and the advance mutation. Four evolutionary paths for synchronization and asynchronous instability.
(3) aiming at the problem that there are many influential factors in the process of sudden event evolution, the problem that the event risk entropy can not be described quantificationally in real-time observation sample data and high dimension, a method of risk entropy prediction based on knowledge element is proposed. The projection pursuit method is used to reduce the multi factor observation data of the unexpected events and obtain the event knowledge. The one dimension projection characteristic value of the high dimensional input attribute set of the meta entity object reflects the data characteristics of the multiple factors by single factor, and the probability of the occurrence probability of different risk grade emergencies is obtained by using the information diffusion theory to spread the single factor projection characteristic value of the input attribute set to the control point of the risk index domain of the output attribute. Entropy theory is used to calculate the risk entropy of contingencies and predict the possibility of unexpected events.
(4) taking the rain and snow freezing event system in southern China in 2008 as an example, taking Changsha as the research area, this paper makes an example test on the composition method of the freezing rain and snow event system and the prediction process of the risk entropy of the snow and snow events. The example analysis results show that the general structure model of the sudden event system based on the knowledge element proposed by this study is easy to describe. The law of the occurrence of sudden events and the evolution law in different levels. The risk entropy prediction method based on the knowledge element can predict the risk entropy according to the time series of the observed samples. The change trend of the risk entropy is consistent with the actual situation and conforms to the entropy change law.
Based on the knowledge element, this paper systematically analyzes the common structure of the emergency system, discusses the evolution law of the system entropy, and puts forward the prediction method of the risk entropy of the emergency, and provides the reference and reference for the theoretical research and practice of emergency emergency management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：N941.4;X913

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