本文選題：動(dòng)態(tài)投入產(chǎn)出 + 消費(fèi)��； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,社會(huì)生產(chǎn)的進(jìn)步,如何進(jìn)行資源調(diào)配是一件十分重要的事情.運(yùn)用動(dòng)態(tài)投入產(chǎn)出模型的規(guī)劃達(dá)到高效的優(yōu)化生產(chǎn),對于經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展也起著至關(guān)重要的作用.動(dòng)態(tài)投入產(chǎn)出理論是在靜態(tài)投入產(chǎn)出理論的基礎(chǔ)上產(chǎn)生的,是一門結(jié)合了計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué),矩陣?yán)碚?經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)以及統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)的綜合性學(xué)說.對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的整體有著宏觀的調(diào)控作用.本文主要進(jìn)行了以下的工作: 1.運(yùn)用帶消費(fèi),進(jìn)出口,固定投資,庫存的動(dòng)態(tài)投入產(chǎn)出模型討論了湖南省的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,并預(yù)測出三大產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值,通過與實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)的比較驗(yàn)證了模型的可靠性.同時(shí),通過分析投資傾向與消費(fèi)傾向,得出投資和消費(fèi)對三大產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響,為湖南省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化提出調(diào)整方向和改進(jìn)意見. 2.本文分析了消費(fèi)傾向和投資傾向?qū)鲜∪螽a(chǎn)業(yè)的影響.在本文第三章的實(shí)證分析中結(jié)合湖南省的具體情況和數(shù)據(jù),對湖南省的經(jīng)濟(jì)情況進(jìn)行分析和預(yù)測.其中著重分析了投資傾向與消費(fèi)和湖南省三次產(chǎn)業(yè)之間的關(guān)系,并且運(yùn)用計(jì)算所得的數(shù)據(jù)將投資傾向彈性對于三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響進(jìn)行了研究.可以看出，投資對第一產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響很大,投資傾向?qū)τ诘诙a(chǎn)業(yè)的刺激性最大.對于消費(fèi),則是第一和第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的依賴度大于第三產(chǎn)業(yè),并且消費(fèi)傾向的增加對于第二產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響是最大的. 3.證明帶消費(fèi),進(jìn)出口,固定投資,庫存的隨機(jī)動(dòng)態(tài)投入產(chǎn)出模型是一個(gè)馬氏過程,則可以利用其性質(zhì),得出該模型崩潰時(shí)間為無窮是不可能的.從數(shù)學(xué)的角度論證了隨機(jī)動(dòng)態(tài)投入產(chǎn)出模型經(jīng)過一定時(shí)間的發(fā)展必須要進(jìn)行調(diào)整,否則經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)出現(xiàn)崩潰現(xiàn)象.這個(gè)結(jié)論也與實(shí)際情況相吻合.
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and the progress of social production, how to allocate resources is a very important thing. Using the planning of dynamic input-output model to achieve efficient and optimal production is also very important for the development of economy. A comprehensive theory of econometrics, matrix theory, economics and statistics has a macro regulatory role in the overall economic development. The following work is carried out in this paper.
1. the dynamic input-output model with consumption, import, export, fixed investment and inventory is used to discuss the economic development of Hunan Province, and to predict the output value of three industries. By comparing with the actual data, the reliability of the model is verified. At the same time, the influence of investment and consumption on the three major industries is obtained by analyzing the investment tendency and consumption tendency. Hunan province's industrial structure optimization puts forward the direction of adjustment and suggestions for improvement.
2. this paper analyzes the influence of consumption tendency and investment tendency on the three major industries in Hunan province. In the empirical analysis of the third chapter of this article, combining with the specific situation and data of Hunan Province, the economic situation of Hunan province is analyzed and predicted. The relationship between investment tendency and consumption and the three industries of Hunan province is analyzed, and the application of this method is analyzed. The calculated data will study the impact of investment tendency elasticity on the three industry. It can be seen that investment has a great impact on the first industry, and the investment tendency is the most irritating to the second industry. For consumption, the dependence of the first and second industries is greater than the third industry, and the increase of consumption tendency is for the second production. The influence of the industry is the greatest.
3. it is proved that the stochastic dynamic input-output model with consumption, import, export, fixed investment and inventory is a Markov process, and it can be used to make use of its properties to conclude that the time of the model collapse is impossible. From the mathematical point of view, the development of random dynamic input-output model must be adjusted after a fixed time, otherwise the economy should be adjusted. There will be a breakdown phenomenon. This conclusion is also consistent with the actual situation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F224;F279.2

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