【摘要】：全球金融危機影響還未散去,對外直接投資活動已經(jīng)重獲動力,并被視為產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進行調(diào)整升級的重要途徑,受到發(fā)達(dá)國家和發(fā)展中國家的一致重視。十二五規(guī)劃中明確指出要貫徹實施“走出去”戰(zhàn)略,并將調(diào)整經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)作為主要發(fā)展目標(biāo)。對于對外投資的母國產(chǎn)業(yè)升級發(fā)展的效應(yīng)也就受到了學(xué)術(shù)界的廣泛關(guān)注,但研究大部分是基于發(fā)達(dá)國家的對外投資活動角度進行的。為了推動中國對外投資活動對母國產(chǎn)生的積極影響,借鑒其他發(fā)展中國家的成功經(jīng)驗,切實制定符合發(fā)展中國家國情的投資策略就顯得尤為重要。中印同為發(fā)展中大國,政治經(jīng)濟社會背景相似性高,對外投資發(fā)展的時期也相近。本文將中印兩國近三十年來的對外直接投資的發(fā)展過程、行業(yè)分布、區(qū)位特色、績效指數(shù)以及兩國產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展模式進行了詳細(xì)的比較分析,得出兩國迥然不同的投資和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)特征。中國是以制造業(yè)對外投資為主導(dǎo),國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)也是第二產(chǎn)業(yè)占比最大,印度則是重點集中在服務(wù)業(yè)的海外投資,國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展也是側(cè)重第三產(chǎn)業(yè),體現(xiàn)了對外投資行業(yè)與國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的一致性。借助已有的研究和兩國對外投資實例,從宏觀、微觀視野解釋對外投資影響母國產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的不同機制。宏觀角度是通過投資活動對產(chǎn)業(yè)之間轉(zhuǎn)移、產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)上下游行業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)、產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)行業(yè)內(nèi)部競爭三大途徑帶動母國產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展。微觀角度是基于不同動因?qū)I(yè)化、投資收益、要素轉(zhuǎn)移、勞動生產(chǎn)率和技術(shù)水平的影響機制分析。在機制分析的基礎(chǔ)上,采用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析和灰色模型預(yù)測分析,得出目前對中印兩國產(chǎn)業(yè)升級關(guān)聯(lián)最大的投資行業(yè)是技術(shù)尋求為主的信息傳輸計算機服務(wù)和軟件業(yè)、高端服務(wù)業(yè)和市場尋求為主的批發(fā)和零售業(yè)、制造業(yè)和傳統(tǒng)服務(wù)業(yè)。資源尋求型的對外投資由于具有戰(zhàn)略意義,對母國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化也有重要作用。通過預(yù)測,未來五年信息技術(shù)服務(wù)業(yè)、批發(fā)零售業(yè)、交通運輸?shù)葌鹘y(tǒng)服務(wù)業(yè)海外投資將繼續(xù)保持對母國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的強關(guān)聯(lián)度,值得注意的是,農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的資源尋找型對外投資將對印度母國產(chǎn)業(yè)升級產(chǎn)生重大影響。綜合上述分析,提出從優(yōu)化投資行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、區(qū)位分布、政府角色三大角度促進母國產(chǎn)業(yè)升級的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The impact of the global financial crisis has not been dispersed, foreign direct investment activities have regained momentum, and have been regarded as an important way to adjust and upgrade the industrial structure, which has been paid attention to by both developed and developing countries. In the 12th Five-Year Plan, it is clearly pointed out that the strategy of "going out" should be carried out and the adjustment of economic structure should be taken as the main development goal. The effect of industrial upgrading and development of home country of foreign investment has been widely concerned by academic circles, but most of the research is based on the perspective of foreign investment activities in developed countries. In order to promote the positive impact of China's foreign investment activities on the home country, it is particularly important to draw lessons from the successful experiences of other developing countries and formulate the investment strategy that is in line with the national conditions of the developing countries. As a developing country, China and India share a similar political, economic and social background. This paper makes a detailed comparative analysis of the development process, industry distribution, location characteristics, performance index and industrial development model of FDI between China and India in the past 30 years. The characteristics of investment and industrial structure of the two countries are quite different. China is dominated by outward investment in manufacturing, the domestic industrial structure is also the largest proportion of secondary industries, India is focusing on overseas investment in the service industry, and the development of domestic industries is also focused on the tertiary industry. It reflects the consistency between the foreign investment industry and the domestic industrial structure. With the help of existing studies and examples of foreign investment in the two countries, the different mechanisms of foreign investment affecting the industrial development of the home country are explained from the macro and micro perspectives. Macroscopical angle is to promote the development of home country industry through three ways: the transfer of investment activity to industry, the connection of industry in upstream and downstream, and the competition within industry. The microcosmic perspective is based on the analysis of the influence mechanism of different motives on industrialization, investment income, factor transfer, labor productivity and technological level. On the basis of mechanism analysis, using grey correlation analysis and grey model prediction analysis, it is concluded that the most relevant investment industries in China and India are technology-seeking information transmission computer services and software industries. High-end services and markets seek to focus on wholesale and retail, manufacturing and traditional services. Resource-seeking foreign investment plays an important role in optimizing the industrial structure of home country because of its strategic significance. It is predicted that in the next five years, overseas investment in traditional services such as information technology services, wholesale and retail trade, transportation and other traditional services will continue to maintain a strong correlation with the optimization of the industrial structure of the home country. Resource-seeking foreign investment in agricultural products will have a significant impact on India's home country's industrial upgrading. Based on the above analysis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the upgrading of home country industry from three aspects: optimizing the investment industry structure, location distribution and the role of government.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F125;F135.1

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號：2395978