本文選題：衛(wèi)星降水產(chǎn)品 + 精度評價��； 參考：《魯東大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：降水是重要的水文氣象變量,其在全球能量和水循環(huán)中起重要作用。同時,降水具有較高的時空變異性,是旱澇災(zāi)害形成的重要因素。因此,降水?dāng)?shù)據(jù)的準(zhǔn)確性對洪水、干旱監(jiān)測及預(yù)報、水資源開發(fā)利用等工作至關(guān)重要,是認(rèn)識水文過程、揭示水文變化的重要基礎(chǔ)。環(huán)渤海地區(qū)屬于我國“三大經(jīng)濟(jì)圈”之一,是我國的政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化中心。水資源匱乏已對環(huán)渤海地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會發(fā)展產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重影響。準(zhǔn)確的降水?dāng)?shù)據(jù)是該區(qū)域干旱監(jiān)測及水資源科學(xué)管理的重要基礎(chǔ)。目前,降水?dāng)?shù)據(jù)獲取的主要手段包括地面降水觀測站、衛(wèi)星遙感、模型模擬等。其中,地面降水觀測站空間分布不均勻,致使站點降水資料具有明顯的局限性;模型模擬需要基于大量物理數(shù)據(jù),且僅能模擬大尺度的降水情況,弊端較為明顯;衛(wèi)星降水產(chǎn)品的時空分辨率較高,能有效彌補站點降水的不足,但其對降水的監(jiān)測是瞬時值,監(jiān)測精度仍表現(xiàn)出較多的不確定性。本文研究目的主要在于,通過對環(huán)渤海多衛(wèi)星降水產(chǎn)品精度檢驗,建立高分辨率衛(wèi)星降水產(chǎn)品在我國環(huán)渤海地區(qū)應(yīng)用的評估與分析基礎(chǔ),全面理解多種衛(wèi)星降水產(chǎn)品的數(shù)據(jù)性能,并為其改進(jìn)提供信息支持;同時,選取綜合精度較優(yōu)的衛(wèi)星降水產(chǎn)品,對其日尺度下估算精度進(jìn)行校正,提高其科學(xué)與應(yīng)用價值。精度檢驗結(jié)果表明,總體上,TRMM 3B42 V7的精度最高,PERSIANN精度最低,但CMORPH對日降水事件的探測成功率最高;3種衛(wèi)星降水產(chǎn)品的月尺度估算精度優(yōu)于日尺度,且夏季高于其他季節(jié);其中,各衛(wèi)星降水產(chǎn)品對日降水量的估算結(jié)果均不理想,對日降水事件探測率低和錯報率較高是誤差形成的重要因素。因此,本文選取環(huán)渤海地區(qū)綜合精度較高的TRMM 3B42數(shù)據(jù),基于小波多分辨率分析方法對其進(jìn)行校正。在對比訂正前的3B42產(chǎn)品誤差特征的基礎(chǔ)上,分析訂正后3B42數(shù)據(jù)的降水估算精度。結(jié)果表明:訂正后的3B42數(shù)據(jù)與站點降水?dāng)?shù)據(jù)之間的相關(guān)系數(shù)顯著提高,MAE、RMSE則明顯降低;訂正后的3B42數(shù)據(jù)對日降水事件的探測成功率得到提高,錯報率有所下降;小波多分辨率分析方法有效提高了3B42數(shù)據(jù)對各季節(jié),特別是冬季日降水的估算精度;但,訂正后的3B42數(shù)據(jù)對日降水量仍存在高估現(xiàn)象。
[Abstract]:Precipitation is an important hydrometeorological variable, which plays an important role in the global energy and water cycle.At the same time, precipitation has high temporal and spatial variability, which is an important factor in the formation of drought and flood disasters.Therefore, the accuracy of precipitation data is of great importance to flood, drought monitoring and forecasting, water resources development and utilization, and is an important basis for understanding hydrological processes and revealing hydrological changes.Bohai Rim is one of the three economic circles in China, which is the political, economic and cultural center of our country.Lack of water resources has had a serious impact on the economic and social development of Bohai Rim.Accurate precipitation data is an important basis for drought monitoring and scientific management of water resources in the region.At present, the main methods of precipitation data acquisition include ground precipitation observation station, satellite remote sensing, model simulation and so on.Among them, the spatial distribution of the ground precipitation observation station is uneven, which makes the precipitation data of the station have obvious limitations, the model simulation needs to be based on a large number of physical data, and can only simulate the large-scale precipitation situation, the disadvantages are obvious.The spatial and temporal resolution of satellite precipitation products is high, which can effectively make up for the shortage of precipitation at the station, but the monitoring of precipitation is instantaneous, and the monitoring accuracy is still more uncertain.The purpose of this paper is to establish the basis of evaluation and analysis of the application of high-resolution satellite precipitation products in China's Bohai Rim area by testing the precision of the multi-satellite precipitation products around the Bohai Sea.We comprehensively understand the data performance of various satellite precipitation products and provide information support for its improvement. At the same time, we select satellite precipitation products with better synthetic precision to correct their estimation accuracy on a daily scale, so as to improve their scientific and practical value.The precision test results show that the precision of TRMM 3B42 V7 is the highest and that of PERSIANN is the lowest on the whole, but the accuracy of the monthly scale estimation of the three satellite precipitation products by CMORPH is the highest, and the summer is higher than that of other seasons, and the accuracy of the monthly scale estimation of the three satellite precipitation products is higher than that of the daily precipitation events.The estimation results of daily precipitation by satellite precipitation products are not satisfactory. The low detection rate and high misreporting rate of daily precipitation events are important factors for the formation of errors.Therefore, the TRMM 3B42 data with high accuracy are selected and corrected based on wavelet multi-resolution analysis method.On the basis of comparing the error characteristics of 3B42 products before revision, the precipitation estimation accuracy of the revised 3B42 data is analyzed.The results show that the correlation coefficient between the revised 3B42 data and the precipitation data is significantly increased, and the success rate of detecting daily precipitation events is improved, and the misreporting rate is decreased.Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis method can effectively improve the accuracy of 3B42 data estimation of daily precipitation in different seasons, especially in winter, but the revised 3B42 data still overestimate the daily precipitation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：魯東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：P412.27

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

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本文編號：1734417