有限理性的電信套餐消費(fèi)者選擇行為分析與預(yù)測(cè)研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-07-08 13:02
【摘要】：隨著新一輪電信(Telecom)改革與重組的完成,中國(guó)的通信電信市場(chǎng)形成了中國(guó)移動(dòng)、中國(guó)聯(lián)通和中國(guó)電信三大全業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)營(yíng)商共同競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的新格局。電信市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的日趨激烈,迫使電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商的運(yùn)營(yíng)模式正在逐漸從以產(chǎn)品為中心轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橐韵M(fèi)者為中心。如何有效地分析和預(yù)測(cè)消費(fèi)者的選擇行為對(duì)于電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商的發(fā)展起到至關(guān)重要的作用。為了在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈的市場(chǎng)中吸引更多的消費(fèi)者,電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商推出了很多電信產(chǎn)品。在眾多的電信產(chǎn)品中,手機(jī)移動(dòng)電信套餐是最重要的一種產(chǎn)品形式。不同消費(fèi)者對(duì)電信業(yè)務(wù)的需求不一樣,消費(fèi)能力也不同,于是三大電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商就需要針對(duì)不同的消費(fèi)群體推出不同的移動(dòng)套餐。對(duì)電信套餐消費(fèi)者選擇行為的深入了解,對(duì)于電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商實(shí)現(xiàn)套餐最優(yōu)定價(jià)、有目標(biāo)的推介套餐、最大程度的獲取消費(fèi)者價(jià)值等具有重要的指導(dǎo)意義。在現(xiàn)實(shí)生活中,由于信息的不完全或者說(shuō)信息的不對(duì)稱使得電信消費(fèi)者在選擇套餐時(shí)不能做出完全理性的判斷。有鑒于此,本文基于前景理論及其推廣參考依賴模型改進(jìn)了傳統(tǒng)的離散選擇模型,分析和預(yù)測(cè)有限理性的電信消費(fèi)者個(gè)體選擇套餐的行為。本文的主要工作包括：(1)對(duì)前景理論及相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)理論和電信行業(yè)的研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)地綜述。首先對(duì)前景理論及相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)理論進(jìn)行了概述,包括有限理性、前景理論及其參考依賴模型等,并對(duì)這些基礎(chǔ)理論的研究現(xiàn)狀分別從理論研究現(xiàn)狀和應(yīng)用研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了綜述,為后續(xù)研究的問(wèn)題奠定了堅(jiān)實(shí)的理論基礎(chǔ)。其次,對(duì)電信行業(yè)的相關(guān)研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了綜述,包括電信行業(yè)的發(fā)展歷程、電信套餐的相關(guān)知識(shí)及電信消費(fèi)者的行為研究現(xiàn)狀等內(nèi)容,為以后的理論研究提供了充足的背景材料。(2)從定性和定量的角度分析了電信套餐消費(fèi)者的選擇行為。在消費(fèi)者行為相關(guān)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了電信套餐消費(fèi)者的選擇行為和影響消費(fèi)者選擇電信套餐的因素。設(shè)計(jì)了針對(duì)大學(xué)生群體套餐選擇情況進(jìn)行的調(diào)查問(wèn)卷,并通過(guò)紙質(zhì)和網(wǎng)絡(luò)調(diào)查方式獲得了大量數(shù)據(jù),為后續(xù)的研究工作提供了實(shí)際的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源,最后基于問(wèn)卷對(duì)電信套餐消費(fèi)者的選擇行為進(jìn)行了定量分析。(3)有限理性的電信套餐消費(fèi)者選擇行為分析。基于前景理論研究了有限理性的電信套餐消費(fèi)者選擇行為,并與基于期望效用理論的完全理性消費(fèi)者的選擇行為進(jìn)行了比較,結(jié)果表明基于前景理論方法得到的結(jié)果與實(shí)證研究得到的結(jié)果一致。同時(shí),由于參考點(diǎn)設(shè)定是前景理論中非常重要的研究?jī)?nèi)容之一,又提出了基于期望消費(fèi)最小的參考點(diǎn)設(shè)定方法,并基于新的參考點(diǎn)分析了電信套餐消費(fèi)者的選擇行為,結(jié)果同樣驗(yàn)證了電信消費(fèi)者在選擇套餐時(shí)的有限理性的合理性。(4)基于改進(jìn)前后的多項(xiàng)logit模型預(yù)測(cè)電信套餐消費(fèi)者的選擇行為。在概述離散選擇模型的基礎(chǔ)上,利用傳統(tǒng)的多項(xiàng)logit模型預(yù)測(cè)了消費(fèi)者的套餐選擇行為。針對(duì)傳統(tǒng)多項(xiàng)logit模型不能預(yù)測(cè)有限理性消費(fèi)者的選擇行為的缺陷,基于參考依賴模型改進(jìn)了多項(xiàng)logit模型,建立了有限理性的電信套餐消費(fèi)者選擇行為的預(yù)測(cè)方法。將利用改進(jìn)前后的多項(xiàng)logit模型對(duì)多個(gè)運(yùn)營(yíng)商的實(shí)際消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),并進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,驗(yàn)證了改進(jìn)后模型的有效性,并得到了一些有價(jià)值的結(jié)論。(5)基于改進(jìn)前后的嵌套logit模型預(yù)測(cè)電信套餐消費(fèi)者的選擇行為。由于多項(xiàng)logit模型存在缺陷,最明顯的就是“不相關(guān)選項(xiàng)間的獨(dú)立性”(Independence from Irrelevant Alternatives, ⅡA)的特性,此特性隱含引入新的套餐會(huì)對(duì)其他套餐產(chǎn)生相同的影響,極可能導(dǎo)致預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果的不準(zhǔn)確。而嵌套logit模型能夠避免在多項(xiàng)logit模型中存在的ⅡA缺陷,于是利用嵌套logit模型對(duì)消費(fèi)者的套餐選擇行為進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)。針對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的嵌套logit模型同樣不能預(yù)測(cè)有限理性消費(fèi)者選擇行為的缺陷,基于參考依賴模型對(duì)嵌套logit模型進(jìn)行了改進(jìn),建立了有限理性電信套餐消費(fèi)者選擇行為的預(yù)測(cè)方法。將利用改進(jìn)前后的嵌套logit模型對(duì)多個(gè)不同運(yùn)營(yíng)商的消費(fèi)者實(shí)際消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),并進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,驗(yàn)證了改進(jìn)后模型的有效性,并得到了一些有借鑒意義的結(jié)論。
文內(nèi)圖片：
圖片說(shuō)明：圖１．３邋２０１１－２０１２年我國(guó)蘭大運(yùn)營(yíng)商移動(dòng)用戶較上月凈增數(shù)量１３］逡逑
[Abstract]:With the completion of the new telecommunications (Telecom) reform and reorganization, China's telecommunications market has formed a new pattern of co-competition with China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom. The competition in the telecom market is becoming more and more fierce, forcing the operation mode of the telecom operator to shift from the product-centric to the consumer-centered. How to effectively analyze and predict the consumer's choice behavior plays an important role in the development of the telecom operator. In order to attract more consumers in a competitive market, the telecom operator has launched a number of telecommunications products. The mobile telecommunication package of mobile phone is one of the most important products in many telecommunication products. Different consumers' demand for telecommunication services is different, and the consumption ability is different, so the three major telecom operators need to launch different mobile packages for different consumption groups. The deep understanding of the choice behavior of the telecom package consumers has important guiding significance for the telecom operators to realize the optimal pricing of the package, the targeted promotion package, the maximum value of the acquisition of the consumer value, and the like. In real life, due to the incomplete information of the information or the asymmetry of the information, the telecom consumer can not make full rational judgment when choosing the package. In view of this, the paper improves the traditional discrete selection model based on the foreground theory and the generalized reference-dependent model, and analyzes and predicts the behavior of the individual selection package of the telecom consumers with limited rationality. The main work of this paper includes: (1) a systematic review of the prospect theory and the relevant basic theory and the research status of the telecom industry. Firstly, the prospect theory and the relevant basic theory are summarized, including the limited reason, the prospect theory and the reference-dependent model, and the research status of these basic theories is reviewed from the current situation of the theory research and the application research status, respectively. And lays a solid theoretical foundation for the problem of follow-up research. Secondly, the present situation of the relevant research in the telecommunication industry is reviewed, including the development course of the telecom industry, the relevant knowledge of the telecom package and the current situation of the behavior of the telecom consumers, and provides sufficient background material for future theoretical research. (2) The choice behavior of the consumer of the telecom package is analyzed from the qualitative and quantitative point of view. On the basis of consumer behavior-related theory, the choice behavior of the consumer of the telecom package and the factors that affect the consumer's selection of the telecom package are analyzed. The questionnaire is designed for the selection of the group package of the college students, and a large amount of data is obtained through the paper and the network investigation methods, and the actual data source is provided for the follow-up research work, and the selection behavior of the consumer of the telecommunication package is analyzed quantitatively based on the questionnaire. (3) The consumer choice behavior analysis of the limited reason. Based on the prospect theory, the choice behavior of the consumer of the telecom package is studied and compared with the choice behavior of the fully rational consumers based on the expected utility theory. The results show that the result obtained by the method of the prospect theory is consistent with the results obtained by the empirical research. At the same time, because the reference point setting is one of the most important research contents in the foreground theory, the method of setting the reference point based on the minimum expectation consumption is put forward, and the selection behavior of the consumer of the telecommunication package is analyzed based on the new reference point, The results also verify the rationality of the limited reason of the telecom consumers in the selection of the package. And (4) predicting the selection behavior of the telecom package consumers based on the multiple logit models before and after the improvement. On the basis of summarizing the discrete selection model, the traditional multiple logit model is used to predict the behavior of the consumer's package selection. Aiming at the defect that the traditional multiple logit model can not predict the selection behavior of the limited rational consumers, the multiple logit models are improved based on the reference-dependent model, and the method for predicting the selection behavior of the consumer of the telecom package with limited rationality is established. The actual consumption data of a plurality of operators is predicted by using a plurality of logit models before and after the improvement, and the comparison analysis is carried out, and the effectiveness of the improved model is verified, and some valuable conclusions are obtained. And (5) predicting the selection behavior of the telecom package consumers based on the nested logit model before and after the improvement. Because of the defects of many logit models, the most obvious is the characteristics of the "Independence between irrelevant options" from Irrelevant Alternative (II A), which implies that the introduction of a new package will have the same effect on other packages, which may lead to inaccurate prediction results. The nested logit model can avoid the 鈪 defects existing in many logit models, and then use the nested logit model to forecast the behavior of the package selection of the consumer. For the traditional nested logit model, the defect of the limited rational consumer selection behavior cannot be predicted, and the nested logit model is improved based on the reference-dependent model, and the prediction method of the consumer selection behavior of the limited rational telecommunication package is established. By using the nested logit model before and after the improvement, the actual consumption data of the consumers of a plurality of different operators is predicted, and the comparison analysis is carried out, and the effectiveness of the improved model is verified, and some valuable conclusions are obtained.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F626;F274
本文編號(hào)：2511603
文內(nèi)圖片：
圖片說(shuō)明：圖１．３邋２０１１－２０１２年我國(guó)蘭大運(yùn)營(yíng)商移動(dòng)用戶較上月凈增數(shù)量１３］逡逑
[Abstract]:With the completion of the new telecommunications (Telecom) reform and reorganization, China's telecommunications market has formed a new pattern of co-competition with China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom. The competition in the telecom market is becoming more and more fierce, forcing the operation mode of the telecom operator to shift from the product-centric to the consumer-centered. How to effectively analyze and predict the consumer's choice behavior plays an important role in the development of the telecom operator. In order to attract more consumers in a competitive market, the telecom operator has launched a number of telecommunications products. The mobile telecommunication package of mobile phone is one of the most important products in many telecommunication products. Different consumers' demand for telecommunication services is different, and the consumption ability is different, so the three major telecom operators need to launch different mobile packages for different consumption groups. The deep understanding of the choice behavior of the telecom package consumers has important guiding significance for the telecom operators to realize the optimal pricing of the package, the targeted promotion package, the maximum value of the acquisition of the consumer value, and the like. In real life, due to the incomplete information of the information or the asymmetry of the information, the telecom consumer can not make full rational judgment when choosing the package. In view of this, the paper improves the traditional discrete selection model based on the foreground theory and the generalized reference-dependent model, and analyzes and predicts the behavior of the individual selection package of the telecom consumers with limited rationality. The main work of this paper includes: (1) a systematic review of the prospect theory and the relevant basic theory and the research status of the telecom industry. Firstly, the prospect theory and the relevant basic theory are summarized, including the limited reason, the prospect theory and the reference-dependent model, and the research status of these basic theories is reviewed from the current situation of the theory research and the application research status, respectively. And lays a solid theoretical foundation for the problem of follow-up research. Secondly, the present situation of the relevant research in the telecommunication industry is reviewed, including the development course of the telecom industry, the relevant knowledge of the telecom package and the current situation of the behavior of the telecom consumers, and provides sufficient background material for future theoretical research. (2) The choice behavior of the consumer of the telecom package is analyzed from the qualitative and quantitative point of view. On the basis of consumer behavior-related theory, the choice behavior of the consumer of the telecom package and the factors that affect the consumer's selection of the telecom package are analyzed. The questionnaire is designed for the selection of the group package of the college students, and a large amount of data is obtained through the paper and the network investigation methods, and the actual data source is provided for the follow-up research work, and the selection behavior of the consumer of the telecommunication package is analyzed quantitatively based on the questionnaire. (3) The consumer choice behavior analysis of the limited reason. Based on the prospect theory, the choice behavior of the consumer of the telecom package is studied and compared with the choice behavior of the fully rational consumers based on the expected utility theory. The results show that the result obtained by the method of the prospect theory is consistent with the results obtained by the empirical research. At the same time, because the reference point setting is one of the most important research contents in the foreground theory, the method of setting the reference point based on the minimum expectation consumption is put forward, and the selection behavior of the consumer of the telecommunication package is analyzed based on the new reference point, The results also verify the rationality of the limited reason of the telecom consumers in the selection of the package. And (4) predicting the selection behavior of the telecom package consumers based on the multiple logit models before and after the improvement. On the basis of summarizing the discrete selection model, the traditional multiple logit model is used to predict the behavior of the consumer's package selection. Aiming at the defect that the traditional multiple logit model can not predict the selection behavior of the limited rational consumers, the multiple logit models are improved based on the reference-dependent model, and the method for predicting the selection behavior of the consumer of the telecom package with limited rationality is established. The actual consumption data of a plurality of operators is predicted by using a plurality of logit models before and after the improvement, and the comparison analysis is carried out, and the effectiveness of the improved model is verified, and some valuable conclusions are obtained. And (5) predicting the selection behavior of the telecom package consumers based on the nested logit model before and after the improvement. Because of the defects of many logit models, the most obvious is the characteristics of the "Independence between irrelevant options" from Irrelevant Alternative (II A), which implies that the introduction of a new package will have the same effect on other packages, which may lead to inaccurate prediction results. The nested logit model can avoid the 鈪 defects existing in many logit models, and then use the nested logit model to forecast the behavior of the package selection of the consumer. For the traditional nested logit model, the defect of the limited rational consumer selection behavior cannot be predicted, and the nested logit model is improved based on the reference-dependent model, and the prediction method of the consumer selection behavior of the limited rational telecommunication package is established. By using the nested logit model before and after the improvement, the actual consumption data of the consumers of a plurality of different operators is predicted, and the comparison analysis is carried out, and the effectiveness of the improved model is verified, and some valuable conclusions are obtained.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F626;F274
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，本文編號(hào)：2511603
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