發(fā)布時間：2018-06-10 08:46

  本文選題：新產(chǎn)品 + 消費者剩余�。� 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：精確地計算消費者福利,是制定合理的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策和規(guī)制政策的基礎(chǔ),本文基于“中國移動”(指中國移動通信集團公司,下同)的數(shù)據(jù),采用福利經(jīng)濟學(xué)的經(jīng)濟理論,以Hausman(1981)提出的消費者剩余計算方法為基礎(chǔ),定量分析了“中國移動”通信對社會總福利的貢獻,以此為政府制定產(chǎn)業(yè)政策和規(guī)制政策提供實證支持。對于中國電信市場的消費者剩余問題,國內(nèi)已有文獻主要基于馬歇爾需求函數(shù)進行實證研究,尚缺乏基于Hicks需求函數(shù)的相關(guān)研究,且尚無研究針對移動通信行業(yè)。本論文期望在此方面進行一些有益的嘗試。 消費者剩余是福利經(jīng)濟學(xué)的基本概念之一。消費者剩余的測算有基于希克斯的需求函數(shù)和馬歇爾需求函數(shù)二種方式,其中" Hicks消費者剩余”被理論經(jīng)濟學(xué)家普遍認為是消費者剩余的更精確的度量。當消費者收入邊際效用不變時,"Marshall消費者剩余”才與通過Hicks需求函數(shù)得到的“補償變化”相等(Marshall,1961).因為Hicks需求函數(shù)是效用相等條件下的需求函數(shù),也就是說需求量是效用和價格的函數(shù)。馬歇爾需求函數(shù)是等收入條件下的需求函數(shù),跟效用無關(guān)(效用的單調(diào)變換不改變偏好選擇)’�！�'Hicks消費者剩余”不易直接估計,但Hausman(1981)為解決"Hicks消費者剩余”的估計問題做出了開創(chuàng)性貢獻。本論文擬根據(jù)Hausman的分析方法采用Hicks需求函數(shù)來估計消費者剩余。 Hausman(1981)的研究思路是用觀察到的市場需求曲線推導(dǎo)未觀察到的補償需求曲線,從而計算出精確的消費者剩余。即從Marshall市場需求曲線推導(dǎo)出相應(yīng)的間接效用函數(shù),進而得到補償變動量、等價變動量和無謂損失的精確計算。為此,本文以“中國移動”為具體研究對象,采用“中國移動”1999Q1-2009Q1的季度時間序列數(shù)據(jù)：包括“中國移動”移動電話用戶數(shù),“中國移動”移動電話每個用戶平均花費數(shù),全國城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入。為避免不平穩(wěn)的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)可能會導(dǎo)致的虛假回歸問題以致無法直接用傳統(tǒng)的OLS方法估計,本文采用Engle與Granger(1987)提出的協(xié)整理論和方法進行處理,并在此基礎(chǔ)上估計出“中國移動”的常彈性需求函數(shù)。 本文得到了以下實證結(jié)論：第一,“中國移動”移動電話用戶數(shù),“中國移動”移動電話每個用戶平均花費數(shù),全國城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入,幾個因素之間存在協(xié)整,具有長期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系。第二,移動通信對中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有重要意義,其消費對國民收入的長期彈性為1.24,對價格的長期彈性為-1.08。第三,在2002Q1-2008Q4期間,“中國移動”電話市場的消費者福利總共增長了六千億元人民幣,平均每年增長八百億元人民幣,“中國移動”市場的消費者福利一直保持持續(xù)增長的過程。說明“中國移動”的消費者福利對我國移動通信市場消費者福利的增長具有重大貢獻,對中國電信市場的消費者福利增長也具有真正意義。第四,由于長期彈性大于1,說明需求量的變動比例大于價格,如果價格上漲,消費者剩余減少,如果價格下降,社會總收益會增加。 研究結(jié)果對于理解我國移動通信運營商的競爭格局有重要意義,隨著3G時代的到來,中國電信市場的競爭更加激烈,競爭格局發(fā)生了變化,“中國移動”在3G時代的表現(xiàn)不如2G時代,而“中國聯(lián)通”和“中國電信”在3G時代都取得不錯的成績,已經(jīng)形成了三足鼎立的競爭格局。這一變化影響了消費者的福利狀況,而在社會總福利計算中,消費者剩余處于根本的位置。 從實證結(jié)論來看,“中國移動”的運營確實增加了消費者的福利水平,并且影響是明顯的。由于中國移動擁有的移動電話數(shù)占我國移動電話總量的70%左右,占我國電話主線用戶數(shù)(指移動電話用戶數(shù)與固定電話用戶數(shù)總和)50%以上,“中國移動”帶來的消費者福利量依然是我國移動通信,甚至是中國電信行業(yè)福利量的大部分。本文測算結(jié)果表明,電信行業(yè)是可以顯著提升人民群眾的福利水平的行業(yè),對國民經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展具有重要影響。近年來,中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展速度加快,特別是第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展迅速,電信行業(yè)由迅猛擴張進入到平穩(wěn)發(fā)展的階段。政府應(yīng)該重視并支持該行業(yè)的發(fā)展,完善相關(guān)制度和法律來保證該行業(yè)健康發(fā)展。如效仿印度政府與行業(yè)合作2,2011年印度政府、監(jiān)管部門與移動行業(yè)合作推動了印度移動通信行業(yè)的發(fā)展。 本文測算的樣本(1999-2009)大部分時期,我國移動行業(yè)只存在兩家運營商,有文獻3顯示我國移動通信行業(yè)是雙寡頭競爭模型,競爭不充分。在競爭結(jié)構(gòu)不合理的時期,由于需求旺盛,經(jīng)本文測算,消費者剩余仍然非常可觀。可見,如果政府積極重視中國電信市場的競爭格局,促進電信市場的有效競爭,實現(xiàn)資源優(yōu)化配置,福利增加會更加顯著。目前由于移動通信行業(yè)競爭主體少,單個運營商所占的市場份額很大,有很強的作價能力,因此運營商往往會將價格定在遠遠高于邊際成本的位置,損害消費者利益。并且,一些運營商對某些業(yè)務(wù)市場擁有絕對的控制能力,他們可能會運用市場力量排斥競爭對手,進行不公平競爭。移動通信領(lǐng)域具有廣闊的市場成長空間,還應(yīng)增加一定數(shù)目的運營商。放松行業(yè)的進入管制,允許民營資本進入移動通信市場,增加市場競爭程度。 本文實證表明,價格對“中國移動”消費量的影響是顯著的,價格彈性的絕對值超過了1(1.08),即價格下降,消費者消費量上升更加顯著,表明降低“中國移動”的價格可以提高消費者的福利水平。政府應(yīng)出臺合理措施整頓電信市場的價格競爭秩序,使得我國移動通信價格維持在合理水平,保護消費者福利。
[Abstract]:Accurate calculation of consumer welfare is the basis for formulating reasonable industrial and regulatory policies. Based on the data of "China Mobile" (referring to the Chellona Mobile Communications Corporation Cmcc, the same below), this paper uses the economic theory of welfare economics, based on the method of consumer surplus calculation proposed by Hausman (1981), and quantitative analysis of "China Mobile" The contribution of communication to the general welfare of the society provides empirical support for the government to formulate industrial policies and regulation policies. For the consumer surplus of the China Telecom market, the domestic literature is mainly based on the Marshall demand function, and there is still a lack of relevant research based on the Hicks demand function, and there is no research aimed at the movement. Communication industry. This paper hopes to make some useful attempts in this respect.
Consumer surplus is one of the basic concepts of welfare economics. The measurement of consumer surplus is based on two methods based on Hicks's demand function and Marshall demand function, of which "Hicks consumer surplus" is generally considered to be the more accurate degree of consumer surplus by theoretical economists. When the marginal utility of consumer income is unchanged, "Marsh The all consumer surplus is equal to the "compensation change" obtained through the Hicks demand function (Marshall, 1961). Because the Hicks demand function is the demand function under the condition of utility equality, that is, the demand is a function of utility and price. The Marshall demand function is the demand function under the equal income bar, which is independent of utility (the utility's single). The'Hicks consumer surplus is not easy to estimate directly, but Hausman (1981) has made a pioneering contribution to the estimation of "Hicks consumer surplus". This paper is to use the Hicks demand function to estimate the remainder of the consumer based on the Hausman analysis method.
The research idea of Hausman (1981) is to deduce the unobserved compensation demand curve by using the observed market demand curve and calculate the exact consumer surplus. That is to derive the corresponding indirect utility function from the Marshall market demand curve, and then get the exact calculation of the compensation variable momentum, the equal price variable momentum and the meaningless loss. The article uses "China Mobile" as the specific research object, using the quarterly time series data of "China Mobile" 1999Q1-2009Q1: including the number of "China Mobile" mobile phone users, the average cost per user of the "China Mobile" mobile phone per user, and the per capita income of urban residents in the country. To avoid the unstable time series data, The false regression problem can be caused so that it can not be estimated directly by the traditional OLS method. This paper deals with the cointegration theory and method proposed by Engle and Granger (1987). On this basis, the constant elastic demand function of "China Mobile" is estimated.
This paper obtains the following empirical conclusions: first, the number of "China Mobile" mobile phone users, the average cost per user of "China Mobile" mobile phone, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in the country, the existence of co integration between several factors and long-term stability. Second, mobile communication is of great significance to the economic development of China, The long-term elasticity of consumption to national income is 1.24, the long-term elasticity to the price is -1.08. third. During the period of 2002Q1-2008Q4, the consumer welfare of the "China Mobile" telephone market increased by six hundred billion yuan in total, with an average annual growth of eighty billion yuan RMB. The consumer welfare of the "China Mobile" market continued to grow. It shows that the consumer welfare of "China Mobile" has a significant contribution to the growth of consumer welfare in the mobile communication market in China, and also has a real significance for the growth of consumer welfare in the China Telecom market. Fourth, as long term elasticity is greater than 1, the change of demand is larger than the price, if the price increases, consumer surplus If the price falls, the total social income will increase.
The research results are of great significance to understanding the competitive pattern of the mobile telecom operators in China. With the arrival of the 3G era, the competition of the China Telecom market is more intense and the competition pattern has changed. "China Mobile" in the 3G era is not as good as the 2G era, and the "China Unicom" and "China Telecom" have been good in the era of 3G. The results have formed a tripartite competitive pattern. This change affects the welfare of the consumer, and in the total social welfare calculation, the consumer surplus is in the fundamental position.
From the empirical conclusion, the operation of "China Mobile" does increase the level of consumer welfare, and the impact is obvious. Because the number of mobile phones owned by China Mobile accounts for about 70% of the total number of mobile phones in China, accounting for more than 50% of the number of main line users in China (the number of mobile phones and the total number of fixed phone users), " The consumer welfare brought by the movement of the country is still the majority of the welfare of China's mobile communications and even the China Telecom industry. The results show that the telecommunications industry is an industry that can significantly improve the welfare level of the people and has an important impact on the development of the national economy. In recent years, China's economic development has accelerated, and the development of China's economy has accelerated. The third industry has developed rapidly and the telecommunications industry has expanded from rapid expansion into the stage of smooth development. The government should attach importance to and support the development of the industry, improve the relevant systems and laws to ensure the healthy development of the industry. For example, the government of the India government and the industry for 22011 years, the cooperation of the regulatory department and the mobile industry has promoted India. The development of the mobile communications industry.
In most period of the sample (1999-2009), there are only two operators in the mobile industry in China. There are 3 documents showing that China's mobile communication industry is a dual oligopoly competition model, and the competition is not sufficient. In the period of unreasonable competition structure, due to the strong demand, the surplus of consumers is still very considerable. The competition pattern of the China Telecom market is paid great attention to, the effective competition of the telecom market is promoted, the optimal allocation of resources is realized, and the increase of welfare will be more significant. At present, the market share of the individual operators is very large and has a strong price ability because of the few competitors in the mobile communications industry, so the operators tend to set the price far above the edge. The location of the cost is damaging the interests of the consumer. And some operators have absolute control over some business markets. They may use market forces to exclude competitors and engage in unfair competition. There is a broad market for market growth in the field of mobile communications, and a certain number of operators should be added to relax the entry management of the industry. The system allows private capital to enter the mobile communications market and increase market competition.
The empirical evidence shows that the price has a significant impact on the consumption of "China Mobile", the absolute value of the price elasticity exceeds 1 (1.08), that is, the price drop and the increase of consumer consumption are more significant. It shows that the price of "China Mobile" can improve the welfare level of consumers. The government should introduce reasonable measures to rectify the price of the telecom market. The order of competition has kept the price of mobile communication at a reasonable level and protected the welfare of consumers.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F626;F274;F224

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