【摘要】：隨著跨境資金頻繁流動(dòng)和規(guī)模的顯著增加，跨境資金流動(dòng)對(duì)流入流出國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響日益加深：一方面跨境資金流動(dòng)有利于優(yōu)化各國(guó)資源的配置，提高資金使用效率，推動(dòng)了世界各國(guó)和地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，特別是促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)欠發(fā)達(dá)、資金稀缺地區(qū)的發(fā)展；另一方面頻繁、過量的資金流動(dòng)又對(duì)一國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)金融穩(wěn)定帶來巨大沖擊，例如1997年亞洲金融危機(jī)。就我國(guó)而言，經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目已實(shí)現(xiàn)完全可兌換，資本項(xiàng)目實(shí)現(xiàn)部分可兌換，人民幣匯率改革穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)，利率市場(chǎng)化改革有序開展，都將進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)跨境資金流動(dòng)的不確定性，其對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響亦更加凸顯。近幾年來，受美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)、歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)以及發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家推出量化寬松貨幣政策等影響，導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)外存在套利空間，，跨境資金投機(jī)性目的增強(qiáng)。就山東省而言，跨境資金雙向流動(dòng)頻繁，短期波動(dòng)性較大，增強(qiáng)和擴(kuò)大了金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞和影響，對(duì)金融體系的穩(wěn)定和經(jīng)濟(jì)安全構(gòu)成巨大威脅，亦必將對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)健康運(yùn)行產(chǎn)生不良影響。 基于上述背景，本文從跨境資金和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論研究著手，分析了山東省對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展和跨境資金流動(dòng)現(xiàn)狀，在此基礎(chǔ)上，建立了向量自回歸模型和狀態(tài)空間模型，研究了跨境資金流動(dòng)對(duì)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格水平、規(guī)模以上工業(yè)增加值的動(dòng)態(tài)影響，根據(jù)實(shí)證研究結(jié)果，提出如下建議：一是加快推進(jìn)利率市場(chǎng)化改革；二是繼續(xù)推動(dòng)匯率市場(chǎng)化改革；三是有序推進(jìn)人民幣資本項(xiàng)目可兌換；四是合理優(yōu)化外商投資結(jié)構(gòu)；五是切實(shí)防范異�？缇迟Y金流動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:With the frequent and significant increase of cross-border capital flows, the impact of cross-border financial flows on the economic development of the countries flowing into and out of the country is deepening. On the one hand, cross-border financial flows are conducive to optimizing the allocation of resources and increasing the efficiency of capital use. It has promoted the economic development of all countries and regions in the world, especially the development of underdeveloped and scarce regions. On the other hand, the frequent and excessive capital flows have had a great impact on the economic and financial stability of a country. For example, the 1997 Asian financial crisis. As far as China is concerned, the full convertibility of the current account, the partial convertibility of the capital account, the steady progress of the RMB exchange rate reform and the orderly development of the market-oriented interest rate reform will further enhance the uncertainty of cross-border capital flows. Its impact on the real economy is also more prominent. In recent years, influenced by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis and the quantitative easing monetary policy of developed countries, there is arbitrage space at home and abroad, and the speculative purpose of cross-border funds is enhanced. As far as Shandong Province is concerned, cross-border capital flows frequently in both directions and is highly volatile in the short run, which enhances and expands the transmission and impact of financial risks and poses a huge threat to the stability of the financial system and economic security. Will also have a negative impact on the smooth and healthy operation of the economy. Based on the above background, this paper analyzes the development of foreign trade and the current situation of cross-border capital flow in Shandong Province from the perspective of cross-border capital and economic growth theory. On this basis, a vector autoregressive model and a state space model are established. This paper studies the dynamic influence of cross-border capital flow on consumer price level and industrial added value above scale. According to the results of empirical research, it puts forward the following suggestions: first, accelerating the reform of interest rate marketization; second, continuing to promote the marketization reform of exchange rate. Third, promote the convertibility of RMB capital account in an orderly manner; fourth, rationally optimize the structure of foreign investment; and fifth, earnestly guard against the risk of abnormal cross-border capital flows.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F832.6

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