【摘要】：自2014年中國GDP增速下滑至7.4%,低于年初制定的7.5%的目標(biāo),轉(zhuǎn)型中的中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速下行,意味著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入新常態(tài),新常態(tài)呈現(xiàn)出以下特征:經(jīng)濟(jì)增速由高速轉(zhuǎn)為中高速增長;從要素驅(qū)動(dòng)、投資驅(qū)動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)向創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng);經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)不斷優(yōu)化升級(jí)。我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展也處在三期疊加的轉(zhuǎn)型陣痛期:一是增長速度換擋期,速度下降;二是結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整陣痛期,優(yōu)化經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu);三是前期刺激政策消化期。改革開放三十年來的人口與資源紅利的優(yōu)勢(shì)不再,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)需要新的推動(dòng)力,因此,推進(jìn)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革勢(shì)在必行。供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的核心在于調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu),推動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí),而人力資本投資作為產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的重要推力,同時(shí)也是供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的重要內(nèi)容。人力資本投資通過改變需求結(jié)構(gòu)與供給結(jié)構(gòu)以及技術(shù)創(chuàng)新等多方面影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí),因此,在國家供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的宏觀背景下研究人力資本投資對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的影響具有重要意義。本文在國家供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的宏觀背景下,依據(jù)新常態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的新特點(diǎn),首先分析了人力資本投資對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的作用機(jī)理。其次,運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)與面板數(shù)據(jù)模型對(duì)全國各省份自治區(qū)的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),驗(yàn)證理論分析在現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的準(zhǔn)確性。最后,在人力資本投資對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的理論實(shí)證與經(jīng)驗(yàn)實(shí)證分析基礎(chǔ)之上,通過統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)分析近年來產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)過程中人力資本投資存在的問題并進(jìn)行成因分析,據(jù)此提出推進(jìn)人力資本投資對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的對(duì)策建議。論文具體包含以下內(nèi)容:第一、在對(duì)國內(nèi)外關(guān)于人力資本投資與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行搜集和梳理的過程中,經(jīng)整理發(fā)現(xiàn),國外對(duì)于人力資本與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的研究多集中在單獨(dú)領(lǐng)域,國內(nèi)對(duì)于人力資本與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的研究較多,可分為理論實(shí)證與經(jīng)驗(yàn)實(shí)證兩大部分,其中理論實(shí)證側(cè)重于人力資本與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的作用機(jī)理分析,檢驗(yàn)實(shí)證側(cè)重運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的方法對(duì)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,得出相關(guān)結(jié)論,主要的方法為回歸分析法。第二、人力資本投資通過改變需求結(jié)構(gòu)、供給結(jié)構(gòu)以及技術(shù)創(chuàng)新來影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)。人力資本投資提高了勞動(dòng)者的收入水平,進(jìn)而提升其消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu),由于供給是取決于需求的,社會(huì)需求結(jié)構(gòu)的變化直接影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí);人力資本投資通過改變要素供給結(jié)構(gòu)作用于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí),由于人力資本自身的能動(dòng)的創(chuàng)造性以及人力資本投資自身的外部性,可以提高其他要素的生產(chǎn)效率,進(jìn)而提高全要素生產(chǎn)率,促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí);技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的重要推力,而人力資本作為技術(shù)進(jìn)步的主體,只有不斷提升人力資本存量水平,優(yōu)化人力資本結(jié)構(gòu),才能推動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)向著更高層次發(fā)展。第三、選用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,分別對(duì)東部中部西部地區(qū)相應(yīng)的人力資本指標(biāo)與產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行回歸分析,得出結(jié)論:東中西部地區(qū)人力資本投資對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的影響均為正向的;西部地區(qū)的人力資本投資對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)的影響要大于東部地區(qū);縮小城鄉(xiāng)居民可支配收入差距對(duì)推進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)影響顯著。第四、通過對(duì)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析,探究產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)過程中人力資本投資存在的問題,即人力資本投資相對(duì)量不足與投資結(jié)構(gòu)不合理的問題,并在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)行成因分析,最后得出加大人力資本投資力度,優(yōu)化人力資本投資結(jié)構(gòu),鼓勵(lì)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新的政策建議。
[Abstract]:China's GDP growth has fallen to 7.4% since 2014, which is lower than the 7.5% target set at the beginning of this year. The downward trend of China's economic growth in transition means that China's economic development has entered a new normal. The new normal shows the following characteristics: the economic growth rate has changed from high-speed to medium-high-speed; from factor-driven, investment-driven to innovation-driven; and the economic structure has been constantly optimized. China's economic development is also in three stages of superimposed transition painful period: first, the growth rate shift period, the rate of decline; second, structural adjustment painful period, optimize the economic structure; third, the early period of stimulation policy digestion. The core of the supply-side structural reform is to adjust the economic structure and promote industrial upgrading. As an important thrust of industrial upgrading, human capital investment is also an important part of the supply-side structural reform. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the impact of human capital investment on the upgrading of industrial structure under the macroscopic background of the structural reform on the supply side of the country. Secondly, this paper uses statistical data and panel data model to test the data of provinces and autonomous regions in China to verify the accuracy of theoretical analysis in the actual economic operation. Finally, the theoretical and empirical analysis basis of human capital investment on industrial structure upgrading is given. On this basis, through statistical analysis of recent industrial structure upgrade in the process of human capital investment problems and causes of analysis, based on this proposed to promote human capital investment in industrial structure upgrade countermeasures and suggestions. In the process of collecting and sorting out the relevant documents, it is found that the research on human capital and industrial structure upgrading abroad is mostly concentrated in a separate field, while the domestic research on human capital and industrial structure upgrading is more, which can be divided into two parts: theoretical demonstration and empirical demonstration. Secondly, human capital investment affects the upgrading of industrial structure by changing the demand structure, supply structure and technological innovation. Human capital investment improves labor. As supply depends on demand, the change of social demand structure directly affects the upgrading of industrial structure; human capital investment acts on the upgrading of industrial structure by changing the supply structure of factors, because of the dynamic creativity of human capital itself and the outside of human capital investment itself. As the main body of technological progress, human capital, as the main body of technological progress, can promote the industrial structure to a higher level only by continuously upgrading the stock level of human capital and optimizing the structure of human capital. Thirdly, using panel data model, this paper makes a regression analysis of the corresponding human capital index and industrial upgrading index in the eastern, central and Western regions, and draws a conclusion that the impact of human capital investment on industrial structure upgrading in the eastern, central and western regions is positive; the impact of human capital investment on industrial structure upgrading in the western region is positive. Fourth, through the analysis of statistical data, this paper explores the problems of human capital investment in the process of industrial structure upgrading, that is, the relative amount of human capital investment is insufficient and the investment structure is unreasonable, and on this basis. On the basis of the analysis of the causes, we finally come to the policy recommendations of increasing human capital investment, optimizing human capital investment structure and encouraging technological innovation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F121.3;F249.21

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