本文關鍵詞： 投資 利率 投資利率彈性 利率傳導機制　出處：《西南大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：20世紀90年代以來,隨著經(jīng)濟的突飛猛進金融業(yè)也得到了快速發(fā)展,在國民經(jīng)濟中的作用越來越重要,已經(jīng)成為國民經(jīng)濟的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)。隨著金融業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟中重要性的提高,利率在經(jīng)濟運行中的杠桿作用也逐漸顯現(xiàn),一些發(fā)達國家陸續(xù)把利率作為貨幣政策工具來調(diào)控宏觀經(jīng)濟。利率作為現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟學中的一個重要的金融變量,也是經(jīng)濟運行的基本因素之一,不僅是連接微觀經(jīng)濟和宏觀經(jīng)濟的重要橋梁,而且在經(jīng)濟運行中起著杠桿作用,幾乎和所有的金融現(xiàn)象都有著密不可分的聯(lián)系。近年來,世界各國開始重視利率的杠桿效應,并據(jù)此頻繁地利用利率工具對宏觀經(jīng)濟進行調(diào)控。利率政策已經(jīng)成為各國中央銀行進行宏觀調(diào)控的重要貨幣政策工具之一,在宏觀調(diào)控中的地位越來越重要。 在現(xiàn)代國民經(jīng)濟運行中,利率是貨幣政策的中間目標,是一國通過貨幣政策進行宏觀調(diào)控的主要工具之一,在國民經(jīng)濟中起著杠桿的作用。貨幣政策發(fā)揮作用的主要途徑是中央銀行通過調(diào)整利率來影響融資成本,問接影響投資者利潤的大小,投資者據(jù)此來決定是否投資以及投資規(guī)模的大小,進而對國民收入等一系列國民經(jīng)濟因素產(chǎn)生相應的影響。由此可見,一國的投資量對利率變化的敏感程度對本國貨幣政策的有效性起著決定性的作用。根據(jù)傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟學理論可知,投資量對利率變化的敏感程度可以用投資利率彈性來衡量。因此,研究一國投資利率彈性能夠為貨幣政策的制定和實施提供強有力的理論依據(jù)和指導。 本文的研究目的主要是：首先,學習研究前人的研究成果,對其進行整理歸納,借鑒他們的研究方法。其次,在此基礎上,結(jié)合我國的具體國情,利用中國統(tǒng)計年鑒以及中國經(jīng)濟網(wǎng)的相關數(shù)據(jù),對我國投資利率彈性現(xiàn)狀以及投資和利率的相關性進行實證分析。最后,結(jié)合實證分析結(jié)果分析我國的投資利率彈性現(xiàn)狀,從理論上找出造成我國投資利率彈性偏低的原因,探索提高我國投資利率彈性的途徑,并提出相關的政策建議,為我國貨幣政策的制定和實施提供理論依據(jù)和方向指導。 從研究方法來看,本文以前人的研究為基礎,結(jié)合理論研究和實證分析的方法,通過中國統(tǒng)計年鑒和中國經(jīng)濟網(wǎng)查找數(shù)據(jù),以2002——2012年為研究期間,以一年期貸款利率為自變量,全社會固定資產(chǎn)投資額為因變量,分別用消費者物價指數(shù)和固定資產(chǎn)投資指數(shù)對自變量和因變量做剔除通貨膨脹因素處理,然后通過統(tǒng)計學方法用公式EI=-(ΔI/I)/(Δr/r)計算我國的實際投資利率彈性。之后采用1980——2013年的數(shù)據(jù)通過Eviews軟件對模型InI=β0-β1r+μ做最小二乘法來分析我國投資和利率的相關程度,得出我國投資利率彈性偏低、投資和利率相關性不大的結(jié)論。最后,在前文理論分析和實證分析的基礎上,本文深入探討了我國投資利率彈性偏低的原因,找出了提高我國投資利率彈性的途徑,并針對存在的問題提出了相關的政策建議。 從文章的結(jié)構(gòu)安排來看,本文共包括六個章節(jié)。第一章是導論部分,主要介紹了文章的研究背景、研究意義、研究思路和方法以及研究框架。第二章是文獻綜述部分,主要對國內(nèi)外關于利率投資彈性的相關研究做了粗略的介紹,并進行簡單述評。第三章是相關理論介紹,詳細闡述了投資利率彈性的相關理論,包括投資利率彈性的概念以及利率傳導機制,分別從降低利率對私人投資、政府投資以及資本市場等方而的影響來分析利率調(diào)整對投資變動的影響。第四章是現(xiàn)狀分析部分,首先以2002——2012年為研究區(qū)間,根據(jù)中國統(tǒng)計年鑒以及中國經(jīng)濟網(wǎng)的相關數(shù)據(jù),用統(tǒng)計學的方法來計算我國的投資利率彈性,其次,以1980——2013年為研究區(qū)間,采用計量經(jīng)濟學的方法對我國投資和利率的相關性進行實證分析。其次,在前文理論分析和實證研究的基礎上,結(jié)合我國的具體國情對我國投資利率彈性的現(xiàn)狀做了簡單介紹。第五章是原因分析部分,主要從市場主體、金融體制、利率市場化以及投資渠道等方面分析造成我國投資利率彈性不敏感現(xiàn)狀的原因。第六章是政策途徑部分,闡述了我國提高投資利率彈性的必要性,并指出提高我國投資利率彈性的相關途徑,提出相應的政策建議。 本文最大可能創(chuàng)新點在于：首先,指出前人在研究我國投資利率彈性時混淆彈性和斜率概念的錯誤做法并給予糾正。其次,用統(tǒng)計學的方法計算我國投資利率彈性,使我們可以很直觀地看出我國投資利率彈性偏低的現(xiàn)狀。最后,把理論研究和實證研究相結(jié)合,詳細地闡述了我國投資利率彈性偏低的現(xiàn)狀及其原因,并從多方而找出提高我國投資利率彈性的途徑,提出具體可行的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since 1990s, along with the rapid development of economy and financial industry has been rapid development, more and more important in the national economy, has become a pillar industry of the national economy. With the importance of the financial sector in the national economy increases, the interest rate leverage in the economy is gradually emerging, some developed countries have shifted the interest rate as monetary policy tools to adjust the macro economy. The interest rate as an important financial variables in modern economics, is one of the basic factors of economic operation, not only is the important bridge connecting the micro economy and macro economy, and in the economy plays a leverage, and almost all the financial phenomena are inextricably linked. In recent years, the world started to pay attention to the interest rate leverage effect, and the frequent use of the interest rate as a tool of macroeconomic regulation and control policy of interest rate. It has become one of the important monetary policy tools for macroeconomic regulation and control by the central banks of various countries. It is becoming more and more important in macro control.
In the modern economy, the interest rate is the intermediate target of monetary policy, is one of the main tools of macroeconomic regulation through monetary policy, leverage plays a role in the national economy. The main way of monetary policy to play the role of the central bank by adjusting interest rates to influence the cost of financing, the indirect effects of investors profit size accordingly, investors to decide whether to invest and the size of the scale of investment, and the corresponding impact on national income and a series of national economic factors. Thus, the sensitivity of investment to interest rate changes in the effectiveness of its monetary policy plays a decisive role. According to the traditional economic theory, the sensitivity of investment amount the interest rate changes can be used to measure the interest rate elasticity of investment. Therefore, the interest rate elasticity of a country's investment to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy Provide a strong theoretical basis and guidance.
The purpose of this research is: first, the study on the results of previous studies, summarizing from their research methods. Secondly, on this basis, combined with China's specific national conditions, using the China statistical yearbook and related data China economic network, to analyze the present situation and the interest rate elasticity of investment in China the relationship between investment and the interest rate. Finally, the results of empirical analysis and investment analysis of the interest rate elasticity of the current situation of our country, find out the reasons from the theory of interest rate elasticity of investment in China is low, explore a way to improve China's investment interest rate elasticity, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions, provide theoretical basis and direction for the development of China's monetary policy the implementation and guidance.
From the research methods, this paper based on previous studies, combined with the method of theoretical research and empirical analysis, through China statistical yearbook and China economic net search data, from 2002 to 2012 as the research period, the one-year lending rate as independent variables, total investment in fixed assets as the dependent variable, respectively, with the consumer price index and fixed asset investment index of independent and dependent variables do for inflation, then through statistical methods using the formula EI=- (I/I) / (r/r) actual investment interest rate elasticity calculation in China. After the 1980 2013 data through the Eviews software model of InI= beta 0- beta 1r+ do the least squares method to analyze the correlation between investment and the interest rate in China, the interest rate elasticity of investment in China is low, less investment and interest rate correlation analysis. Finally, in the above theoretical analysis and empirical On the basis of this, this paper probes into the reasons for the low elasticity of investment interest rate in China, finds out the way to improve the elasticity of investment interest rate, and puts forward relevant policy recommendations for the existing problems.
From the arrangement of the structure, this thesis consists of six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction part, mainly introduces the research background, the research significance, research ideas and methods and research framework. The second chapter is literature review, mainly for domestic and foreign investment on the interest rate elasticity of the research are simply introduced. And a simple review. The third chapter introduces the related theories, elaborates the theory related to the interest rate elasticity of investment, including investment interest rate elasticity and the concept of interest rate transmission mechanism, from lower interest rates on private investment, government investment and capital market, and to analyze the impact of interest rate on investment. The fourth chapter is the analysis of the present situation, first from 2002 to 2012 as the research object, according to the Chinese statistical yearbook and related data China economic network, using statistical methods to calculate China Secondly, the interest rate elasticity of investment, from 1980 to 2013 as the research object, using the econometric methods of the correlation between China's investment and interest rates for empirical analysis. Secondly, based on the previous theoretical analysis and empirical research, combined with China's specific conditions of the interest rate elasticity of investment in China is briefly introduced. Fifth chapter is the reason analysis, mainly from the main body of the market, the financial system, the marketization of interest rate and investment channels to analyze the cause of the interest rate elasticity of investment in China is not sensitive to the status quo. The sixth chapter is the part of the policy approach, expounds the necessity of improving the investment interest rate elasticity, and points out the way to improve the interest rate elasticity of investment in China and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
The biggest innovation lies in: first, it is pointed out that the study on the interest rate elasticity of investment in China and the confusion of the concept of slope elastic mistake and corrected. Secondly, calculate the interest rate elasticity of investment in China with the method of statistics, we can intuitively see the status of the low interest rate elasticity of investment in China. Finally, the theory of research and empirical research, elaborates the status and reasons of the low interest rate elasticity of investment in China, and from the multi and find ways to improve the interest rate elasticity of investment in China, put forward the concrete and feasible policy recommendations.

【學位授予單位】：西南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124

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本文編號：1518300