本文關(guān)鍵詞： STAR 多重均衡 金融發(fā)展 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長　出處：《浙江理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：學(xué)術(shù)研究的一個(gè)熱點(diǎn)問題是金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩者的關(guān)系問題，盡管很多研究者已經(jīng)運(yùn)用了很多種方法來研究該問題，，但是其研究結(jié)論卻始終不一致，甚至相反。在研究金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩者關(guān)系的文獻(xiàn)中，金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩者之間是否存在多重均衡這一問題盡管非常重要，但卻鮮少被人仔細(xì)研究。根據(jù)對金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩者之間關(guān)系存在突變性的判斷，本文以我國1978-2012的相關(guān)季度數(shù)據(jù)作為樣本數(shù)據(jù)，創(chuàng)新性的運(yùn)用平滑過渡自回歸（STAR）模型，從金融發(fā)展的三個(gè)維度指標(biāo)——金融中介指標(biāo)，金融深化指標(biāo)和金融效率指標(biāo)，重新驗(yàn)證了中國的金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩者之間的多重均衡問題。 本文首先對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)和理論進(jìn)行了梳理，在總結(jié)多重均衡研究文獻(xiàn)存在不足之處的同時(shí)，與中國的金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩者之間關(guān)系的實(shí)際相結(jié)合，提出了本文的兩個(gè)假說，即我國是否存在金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩者之間的多重均衡問題，以及若存在，在什么情況下達(dá)到低水平均衡，在什么情況下達(dá)到高水平均衡。在假說證明的過程中，我們選取了三個(gè)指標(biāo)來刻畫金融發(fā)展，選取實(shí)際GDP指標(biāo)來刻畫經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，并在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)造了三個(gè)STAR模型，試圖用三個(gè)不同的視角來考察中國金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩者之間的關(guān)系。研究得到了以下幾個(gè)結(jié)論：（1）我國確實(shí)存在金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩者之間的多重均衡現(xiàn)象,且這種現(xiàn)象具有對轉(zhuǎn)型階段的敏感性。（2）在1992年前后，我國處在金融的低水平發(fā)展階段，同時(shí)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)也處于一個(gè)低水平的增長階段，即金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩者之間的低水平均衡；在1996年前后，我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與金融發(fā)展相對處于一個(gè)較高的水平，對應(yīng)的，我國金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長兩者之間處于一個(gè)高水平的均衡狀態(tài)。 本文最后闡明實(shí)證結(jié)論的經(jīng)濟(jì)含義，并且從政府，企業(yè)和金融系統(tǒng)等方面提出相關(guān)的政策建議，同時(shí)指出本文在研究中存在的不足之處和未來對該問題研究的側(cè)重點(diǎn)。
[Abstract]:A hot issue of academic research is the problem of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, although many researchers have used many methods to study this problem, but the conclusion is not always consistent, even the opposite. In the study of financial development and economic growth, the relationship between the two in the literature, the existence of multiple equilibria in this a problem between the financial development and economic growth even though very important, but are rarely studied. According to the existence of the relationship between the financial development and economic growth change of judgment, according to China's 1978-2012 quarter data as the sample data, using innovative smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model, from the financial development of the three dimensions: financial intermediation indicators, indicators of financial deepening and financial efficiency, to verify the China between financial development and economic growth The problem of multiple equilibrium between them.
Based on the domestic and foreign related literature and theories, summarizes the research literature in multiple equilibria exist deficiencies at the same time, the actual and the relationship between financial development and economic growth Chinese combining both, puts forward the two hypotheses, multiple equilibrium problem is whether our country exists between financial development and economic growth of the two, and if there is, at low level under what circumstances, to reach the high level equilibrium under what circumstances. In the process of proof of the hypothesis, we selected three indicators to describe the financial development, select the actual GDP indicators to describe the economic growth, and on the basis of constructing three STAR model, trying to to study the relationship between financial development and economic growth Chinese both in three different perspectives. The research obtained the following conclusions: (1) the existence of financial development and economic growth Multiple equilibria between the two, and this phenomenon is sensitive to the transition stage. (2) before and after 1992, the low level of China's stage of development in finance, while China's economy is in a low level of growth stage, the low level of financial development and economic growth between the two in 1996; before and after the financial development and economic growth in China is in a high level, corresponding, between financial development and economic growth in China is the high level of a balanced state.
At last, the paper clarifies the economic implications of the empirical conclusions, and puts forward relevant policy recommendations from the aspects of government, enterprises and financial system. Meanwhile, it points out the shortcomings of this research and the future research priorities.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F124.1;F832.1

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