發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-04 05:03

  本文選題：山西省 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)測��； 參考：《遼寧師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：當(dāng)前，綜合區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素與區(qū)域之間的空間關(guān)聯(lián)性，做出區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展預(yù)測是學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問題。本文研究了山西省縣域和市域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的特點(diǎn)，分析和預(yù)測各研究區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況，揭示了各研究區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的演化趨勢及其影響因素并提出了相應(yīng)的策略和建議。 本文首先介紹了空間自相關(guān)理論，然后引出了空間面板數(shù)據(jù)的概念和模型。通過實(shí)證分析揭示了山西省縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)的空間關(guān)聯(lián)的特點(diǎn)。接著將空間變量和時(shí)間滯后變量引入方程，對山西省市域經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行研究，通過一系列的檢驗(yàn)得出相應(yīng)的方程，，最終對2013-2015年以及2020年山西省市域單元GDP進(jìn)行了預(yù)測。 （1）山西省縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)全局存在正的空間自相關(guān)關(guān)系，同時(shí)各縣域單元的空間自相關(guān)程度隨著時(shí)間的推移存在一定的波動(dòng)。說明山西省縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)在一定程度上具有空間集聚的特性，但這種集聚程度隨著年份的不同而有所變化。 （2）通過山西省縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)的局部自相關(guān)說明山西省的熱點(diǎn)分布變化較大，這說明山西省縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不平衡，并且各個(gè)縣域自身經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展也不穩(wěn)定。通過分析有助于我們了解山西省各縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展及其與周邊地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系，為各縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)未來的發(fā)展提供參考。同時(shí)我們針對山西省縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的自身特點(diǎn)提出了打造增長極，構(gòu)建協(xié)同發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)圈以及發(fā)展特色經(jīng)濟(jì)的對策。 （3）利用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型方程分析方法有利于我們針對各個(gè)市域分析該區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的特點(diǎn)，并提出不同的建議，同時(shí)還能夠明確的分析出各變量對該區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響程度。這有利于我們分析各個(gè)市域單元的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方向。針對山西省是資源大省的這一特點(diǎn)，提出要大力發(fā)展清潔能源，優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的對策；針對山西省整體情況，提出了控制人口，治理污染，堅(jiān)持走可持續(xù)道路的建議。 最后，利用分析得出的面板數(shù)據(jù)方程可以預(yù)測各市域單元2010年以后經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的方向。2013-2015年以及2020各市GDP的預(yù)測值為山西省區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的“十三五”規(guī)劃提理論支持。
[Abstract]:At present, the driving factors of regional economic development and the spatial correlation between regions and the prediction of regional economic development are the hot issues of concern in the academic circles. This paper studies the characteristics of the economic growth in the county and city regions of Shanxi Province, analyzes and predicts the economic status of each research area, and reveals the evolution trend of the regional economy. The influencing factors and corresponding strategies and suggestions are put forward.
This paper first introduces the spatial autocorrelation theory, then leads to the concept and model of the spatial panel data. Through the empirical analysis, it reveals the characteristics of the spatial correlation of the county economy in Shanxi province. Then, the spatial variable and time lag variable are introduced to the equation to study the economy of the provinces and cities of Shanxi Province, and a series of tests have been made to get the corresponding results. The equations are finally predicted for the 2013-2015 and 2020 provinces and cities of Shanxi GDP.
(1) there is a positive spatial autocorrelation in the overall situation of the county economy in Shanxi province. At the same time, the spatial autocorrelation of each county unit has a certain fluctuation with the passage of time. It shows that the county economy in Shanxi province has the characteristics of spatial agglomeration to a certain extent, but this degree of agglomeration varies with the different years.
(2) according to the local autocorrelation of the county economy in Shanxi Province, the distribution of the hot spots in Shanxi province has changed greatly. This shows that the economic development of the county economy in Shanxi province is unbalanced, and the economic development of each county is also unstable. The future development of the region economy provides a reference. At the same time, we put forward the countermeasures to build the growth pole, construct the economic circle of coordinated development and develop the characteristic economy according to the own characteristics of the county economic development in Shanxi province.
(3) using the panel data model equation analysis method is helpful for us to analyze the characteristics of the regional economic growth in each city area, and put forward different suggestions. At the same time, it can also make a clear analysis of the influence of each variable on the economy of the region. It is beneficial to us to analyze the economic development direction of each city area unit. For Shanxi Province, This characteristic of large resources province puts forward the countermeasures to develop clean energy and optimize the industrial structure. In view of the overall situation of Shanxi Province, it puts forward some suggestions to control the population, control the pollution and adhere to the sustainable road.
Finally, using the analysis of the panel data equation, we can predict the direction of the economic development of each city unit after 2010.2013-2015 and the forecast value of 2020 city GDP for the "13th Five-Year" planning theory support for the regional economic development of Shanxi province.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F123.2

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