本文關(guān)鍵詞：臺海兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)自組織發(fā)展研究　出處：《北京工業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：臺海兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不是孤立的，兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)合則兩利，分則兩傷。兩岸之間的物質(zhì)流動、信息流動不斷加速，雙方在地緣優(yōu)勢、自然資源、人力資源等方面也存在巨大互補(bǔ)性，這促使兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)的依存關(guān)系不斷加強(qiáng)。維持保護(hù)好兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)正常運(yùn)行，促進(jìn)其健康發(fā)展，將對實(shí)現(xiàn)兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展目標(biāo)產(chǎn)生很大幫助，這就要求管理者深入了解經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)自組織發(fā)展的規(guī)律與條件，在此基礎(chǔ)上根據(jù)環(huán)境變化對系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行優(yōu)化，使之能夠自行應(yīng)對來自內(nèi)外部的沖擊。因此，研究經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)自組織發(fā)展的一般規(guī)律，尋找其顯著特征及優(yōu)化方式，結(jié)合實(shí)際條件對兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行分析，在當(dāng)前我國加快轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式的時期，具有突出的理論與實(shí)踐意義。 目前關(guān)于臺海經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的文獻(xiàn)有很多，主要集中于兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)互補(bǔ)性和經(jīng)濟(jì)整合方面的研究，還有一些學(xué)者從兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)中某一特定方面的變化來分析兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展機(jī)制�？傮w來看，這些研究都是根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)狀來探察經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)發(fā)展情況，以數(shù)據(jù)為入手點(diǎn)分析經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)。而本文以探明臺海兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)自組織發(fā)展的各階段特點(diǎn)為出發(fā)點(diǎn)，再通過兩岸雙方對外貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)、產(chǎn)品數(shù)量、企業(yè)會計指標(biāo)等實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)，透視區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的啟動發(fā)展全過程，是一種正向的思維分析過程。影響經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)自組織發(fā)展的各個因素環(huán)環(huán)相扣，臺海兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的基本環(huán)境、有序化程度、協(xié)同競爭因素、序參量帶領(lǐng)作用及經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化進(jìn)程都將對其自身產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)影響。只有保護(hù)好臺海兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中已有的自組織發(fā)展條件并逐步從宏觀、產(chǎn)業(yè)、微觀等層面多角度優(yōu)化兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)，才能使之為兩岸社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展作出更大貢獻(xiàn)。 本文的主要工作是運(yùn)用自組織理論，結(jié)合經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)理論、博弈論對兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的啟動條件、發(fā)展動力、發(fā)展趨勢進(jìn)行具體分析，并根據(jù)臺海兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的特點(diǎn)，針對兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化發(fā)展提出政策建議，這為研究雙邊經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系、探索區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)自組織演化過程提供了思路和框架。 本文的主要研究成果有： （1）提出了臺海兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)自組織發(fā)展的三種基本表象，建立了系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)同競爭策略選擇博弈模型，指出兩岸經(jīng)貿(mào)合作將趨向于協(xié)同合作，，并進(jìn)一步提出臺海兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)一體化發(fā)展將實(shí)現(xiàn)子系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部的反應(yīng)循環(huán)、子系統(tǒng)間的催化反應(yīng)循環(huán)和大陸與臺灣子空間系統(tǒng)之間的超循環(huán)。 （2）在分析得出臺海兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)具備開啟自組織發(fā)展基本條件的基礎(chǔ)上，建立了基于熵流分析的臺海兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)耗散結(jié)構(gòu)模型，選取了大陸與臺灣之間的6個區(qū)域流和6個經(jīng)濟(jì)勢，得出臺海兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的有序化程度正在不斷增加，并將延續(xù)這種增長態(tài)勢的結(jié)論。 （3）提出序參量因素是區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)自組織發(fā)展動力的主導(dǎo)因素，分析了臺海兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)中序參量的產(chǎn)生過程，并以兩岸LED產(chǎn)業(yè)為例，建立了臺海兩岸產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)同發(fā)展模型，并根據(jù)伺服原理，采用絕熱消去法，確定系統(tǒng)的序參量。 （4）利用模糊層次分析法，計算得出了近十年來兩岸經(jīng)貿(mào)協(xié)同度提高近一倍的結(jié)論，提出促進(jìn)臺海兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)自組織發(fā)展的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The economic development of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is not isolated, the cross-strait economic cooperation benefits both, of the two injuries. The material flow between the two sides, the two sides in the accelerating flow of information, geographical advantages, natural resources, there are also great complementarity of human resources, the cross-strait economic relations have been strengthened. By maintaining the normal operation of protection on both sides the economic system, to promote their healthy development, will have great help to realize the goal of economic development, which requires managers in-depth understanding of rules and conditions of self organization for economic system development, on the basis of the system optimization environment changes, so that it can deal with the self from the internal and external impact. Therefore, the general rules of self organization the development of economic system, for its remarkable characteristics and optimization methods, combined with the actual conditions of the cross-strait economic system in China to accelerate the transformation of economic development The period of the way of exhibition has outstanding theoretical and practical significance.
At present, there are a lot of Taiwan economic system literature, mainly focus on cross-strait economic complementarity and economic integration, and analyses some scholars from both sides of economic change in a particular aspect of the development of cross-strait economic mechanism. Overall, these studies are according to the economic data and economic situation to explore economic system development the data for the starting point, to analyze the internal structure of economic system. The characteristics of the various stages of this economic system to explore cross-strait self organization development as the starting point, the two sides of foreign trade data, the number of products, the actual data of the enterprise accounting indicators, the whole process of the Perspective of regional economic system and start the development, is a positive thinking of the analysis process. Various factors affecting economic interlocking self organization system development, the basic environment and economy system across the Taiwan Strait, the orderly degree of synergy Competitive factors, the order parameter lead role and economic integration will have a profound impact on its own. Only to protect the existing economic system of cross-strait self organization in the development conditions and gradually from the macroscopic and microcosmic angles of industry, optimize the cross-strait economic system, to make the cross-strait economic and social development and make greater contributions.
The main work of this paper is using self organization theory, combined with economic system theory, dynamic game theory starting conditions, on both sides of the development of the economic system, analyze the development trend of economic system, and according to the characteristics of the two sides of the Strait, for the development of cross-strait economic integration and put forward some policy suggestions, for the study of bilateral economic and trade relations, provides the ideas and framework to explore the self organization evolution process of regional economic system.
The main research results of this paper are as follows:
(1) put forward three basic idea from the organization development of economic system of both sides of the Taiwan Strait, established within the industry system of cooperative competition strategy selection game model, pointed out that cross-strait economic and trade cooperation will tend to cooperate, and further put forward the integration of cross-strait economic system development will achieve the reaction cycle within the subsystem, between the catalytic cycle and the mainland with the Taiwan sub space system between the super cycle.
(2) in the analysis of economic system on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have open based self organization development basic conditions, establish the dissipative structure model of cross-strait economic system based on entropy analysis, selects between the mainland and Taiwan 6 regions and 6 economic potential flow, the degree of order was issued two bank sea economic system is increasing, and will continue the growth results.
(3) the order parameters of power factor is the dominant factor of self organization system of regional economy development, analyzes the generating process of order parameters in cross strait economic system, and on both sides of the LED industry as an example, a model of collaborative development of cross-strait industry, and according to the principle of servo, the adiabatic elimination method, determine the order parameter of system.
(4) using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we have calculated nearly twice the degree of cross-strait economic and trade synergy in the past ten years, and put forward policy recommendations to promote the self-organized development of cross-strait economic system.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F127

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