【摘要】：鋼鐵業(yè)是關(guān)系我國國計(jì)民生的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)，在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中占有重要地位。作為一個(gè)原材料的生產(chǎn)和加工環(huán)節(jié)，鋼鐵業(yè)處于工業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的中間位置，它的發(fā)展與國家的基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)以及工業(yè)發(fā)展的水平密切關(guān)聯(lián)。然而也是由于這些相關(guān)行業(yè)及國內(nèi)外環(huán)境政策的變化，，如產(chǎn)能過剩、礦石壟斷、資金緊張、需求不足、環(huán)境保護(hù)等方面的壓力，使我國鋼鐵企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加劇，生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營面臨異常嚴(yán)峻的處境。在這一背景下，我國上市鋼鐵公司財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警引入EVA具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。EVA評(píng)價(jià)體系涵蓋了績效評(píng)估、預(yù)算管理、經(jīng)營管理、激勵(lì)制度等多方面的價(jià)值管理理論，尤其是股權(quán)資本成本的引入，讓經(jīng)營者更接近于股東的環(huán)境，引導(dǎo)管理者甚至企業(yè)的一般員工開始像企業(yè)的股東一樣思考企業(yè)的生存與發(fā)展。因此本文將EVA引入上市鋼鐵公司財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警中，以增強(qiáng)預(yù)警模型的準(zhǔn)確性，促進(jìn)鋼鐵企業(yè)的健康發(fā)展。 本文選取2012年符合條件的30家上市鋼鐵公司為樣本，從償債能力、營運(yùn)能力、現(xiàn)金流量、發(fā)展能力四大方面選取14個(gè)傳統(tǒng)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)，此外用EVA對(duì)傳統(tǒng)盈利能力進(jìn)行修正，選取4個(gè)修正的盈利能力指標(biāo)，共同構(gòu)成上市鋼鐵公司財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系，利用因子分析法對(duì)所選財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行篩選，提取6個(gè)公共因子；其次運(yùn)用聚類分析法對(duì)樣本公司進(jìn)行分類，將30家樣本鋼鐵公司分為安全型和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)型兩類；再次利用Logistic回歸分析法對(duì)提取的公共因子建立模型，最終進(jìn)入模型的公共因子是EVA因子和成長因子，通過驗(yàn)證可知EVA因子能夠更好地提高模型的預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性；最后利用樣本公司2011年和2010年的數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)模型進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)，并對(duì)上市鋼鐵公司財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控提出建設(shè)性意見。
[Abstract]:Steel industry is a pillar industry related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and plays an important role in the national economy. As a raw material production and processing link, the steel industry is in the middle of the industrial chain. Its development is closely related to the national infrastructure and the level of industrial development. However, it is also due to the changes in environmental policies in these related industries and at home and abroad, such as overcapacity, ore monopoly, tight capital, insufficient demand, environmental protection, and so on, which aggravate the financial risks of Chinese iron and steel enterprises. Production and operation are faced with an exceptionally severe situation. Under this background, the introduction of EVA into the financial risk early warning of listed iron and steel companies in China has important practical significance. The EVA evaluation system covers the value management theory of performance evaluation, budget management, incentive system and so on. Especially the introduction of the cost of equity capital makes managers more close to the environment of shareholders and leads managers and even the general staff of enterprises to start thinking about the existence and development of enterprises just like shareholders of enterprises. In order to enhance the accuracy of the warning model and promote the healthy development of iron and steel enterprises, this paper introduces EVA into the financial risk early warning of listed iron and steel companies. This paper selects 30 listed steel companies that meet the requirements in 2012 as samples, selects 14 traditional financial indicators from four aspects of solvency, operating capacity, cash flow and development ability, and modifies traditional profitability with EVA. Four revised profitability indexes are selected to constitute the financial risk warning index system of listed iron and steel companies. The selected financial indicators are screened by factor analysis and 6 public factors are extracted. Secondly, the sample companies are classified by cluster analysis, and 30 sample steel companies are classified into two categories: safety type and risk type. Then, the model of public factors extracted is established by Logistic regression analysis. The common factors that eventually enter the model are EVA factor and growth factor. It is known that EVA factor can better improve the prediction accuracy of the model. Finally, the model is tested using the data of sample companies in 2011 and 2010. And the listed steel company financial risk prevention and control put forward constructive suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.31;F406.7

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