本文選題：油輪投資 + 投資風險　； 參考：《大連海事大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟的快速增長,對石油資源的消費進一步增加。油輪憑借運輸量大、運費率低、可以長距離運輸?shù)葍?yōu)勢,已經(jīng)成為國際間石油運輸?shù)氖走x。油輪投資活動是油輪企業(yè)擴大船隊規(guī)模、提高核心競爭力的重要措施。然而,油輪投資往往伴隨著巨額的資本流動,并且油輪投資受到國際經(jīng)濟形勢和國際貿(mào)易量等因素影響很大,具有投資風險大、投資回收期長等特點。鑒于油輪投資的特點,應運用科學的風險評價方法,對油輪投資風險評價是十分必要的。但是如何對油輪投資過程中存在的各種風險進行識別、進而進行風險評價,最終為決策者提供理論依據(jù),是油輪企業(yè)必須面臨和解決的問題。 本文首先回顧了國內(nèi)外關于油輪企業(yè)及油輪投資風險方面的研究動態(tài),并對油輪投資內(nèi)涵、油輪投資市場和油輪投資分融資方式進行分析。其次,對油輪投資風險進行分析,簡要介紹了風險涵義以及油輪投資風險產(chǎn)生的原因。為下文的油輪投資風險分析做理論鋪墊。然后提出油輪投資風險評價理論,進一步分析了油輪投資所涉及的風險,并建立基于模糊理論的DEA油輪投資風險評價模型。最后以油輪企業(yè)進行油輪投資的多個備選項目為例,運用此模型對油輪投資風險進行評價,驗證模型的有效性,并將評價結果與實際情況進行比較,提出風險控制方案。 本文系統(tǒng)介紹了油輪投資風險理論,將模糊綜合評價方法與數(shù)據(jù)包絡分析(DEA)結合,構建基于模糊理論的DEA油輪投資風險評價模型,并運用此模型對油輪投資所涉及的風險進行了全面的評價。本文建立的油輪投資風險評價模型可以為油輪投資者進行油輪投資提供有意義的參考,這對我國油輪企業(yè)進行風險投資提供借鑒作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of China's economy, the consumption of oil resources has further increased. Oil tankers have become the first choice of international oil transportation because of their advantages such as large volume, low freight rate, long distance transportation and so on. Tanker investment is an important measure for tanker enterprises to expand their fleet size and improve their core competitiveness. However, oil tanker investment is often accompanied by a huge capital flow, and oil tanker investment is greatly affected by the international economic situation and international trade volume, with the characteristics of high investment risk and long payback period. In view of the characteristics of oil tanker investment, it is necessary to use scientific risk assessment method to evaluate oil tanker investment risk. However, how to identify the various risks in the process of oil tanker investment, and then evaluate the risks, and finally provide the theoretical basis for the decision makers, is the problem that oil tanker enterprises must face and solve. This paper first reviews the research trends of tanker enterprises and their investment risks at home and abroad, and analyzes the connotation of oil tanker investment, the tanker investment market and the sub-financing mode of tanker investment. Secondly, the risk of oil tanker investment is analyzed, the meaning of risk and the reason of the risk are introduced briefly. For the following oil tanker investment risk analysis to do theoretical groundwork. Then the theory of oil tanker investment risk evaluation is put forward, the risk involved in tanker investment is further analyzed, and the DEA oil tanker investment risk evaluation model based on fuzzy theory is established. Finally, taking several alternative projects of tanker investment for example, the model is used to evaluate the risk of oil tanker investment, to verify the effectiveness of the model, and to compare the evaluation results with the actual situation, and put forward a risk control scheme. In this paper, the theory of tanker investment risk is introduced systematically, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is combined with data envelopment analysis (DEAA) to construct the DEA oil tanker investment risk evaluation model based on fuzzy theory. The model is used to evaluate the risk involved in oil tanker investment. The risk evaluation model of oil tanker investment established in this paper can provide a meaningful reference for tanker investors to carry out oil tanker investment, which can be used as a reference for oil tanker enterprises in our country.
【學位授予單位】：大連海事大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F552;F224

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