本文選題：航班延誤　切入點(diǎn)：延誤波及　出處：《南京航空航天大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),航空運(yùn)輸業(yè)發(fā)展迅速,航班延誤及傳播問(wèn)題也越來(lái)越嚴(yán)重�？刂坪蜏p少航班延誤是國(guó)內(nèi)外民航管理工作的一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期而艱巨的任務(wù)。通過(guò)分析航班運(yùn)行數(shù)據(jù),挖掘數(shù)據(jù)的內(nèi)在特征,找出航班延誤與波及的變化趨勢(shì),對(duì)研究航班延誤問(wèn)題具有重要指導(dǎo)意義�；趯�(duì)航班延誤問(wèn)題的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的學(xué)習(xí),本文從以下幾方面研究此問(wèn)題:首先研究延誤沿著飛機(jī)資源傳播的問(wèn)題,建立基于航班串的貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型模擬航班延誤波及和航班間延誤的相互關(guān)系,揭示不正常運(yùn)營(yíng)條件對(duì)航班計(jì)劃可靠性的影響。根據(jù)對(duì)航班運(yùn)營(yíng)可靠性的分析找出航班串中的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)即關(guān)鍵機(jī)場(chǎng),運(yùn)用加權(quán)馬爾科夫鏈模型對(duì)關(guān)鍵機(jī)場(chǎng)的整體延誤狀態(tài)進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),以反映機(jī)場(chǎng)隨機(jī)延誤因素對(duì)延誤在航班串中傳播的影響。從而更準(zhǔn)確地預(yù)測(cè)航班延誤狀況,并根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果對(duì)航班計(jì)劃進(jìn)行相應(yīng)調(diào)整,以提高航班計(jì)劃運(yùn)營(yíng)可靠性。其次考慮到飛機(jī)與機(jī)組是飛行的主要資源,一架飛機(jī)和一個(gè)機(jī)組在一天中往往要執(zhí)飛多個(gè)連續(xù)的航班,因此,如果航班串中一個(gè)航班發(fā)生延誤,延誤可能會(huì)沿著這兩種飛行資源波及到其下游航班�；谶@兩種飛行資源,提出了兩種資源分離方案,對(duì)兩種案例下的延誤因素對(duì)航班離港延誤的影響以及兩個(gè)案例的運(yùn)營(yíng)魯棒性進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,為航班延誤問(wèn)題提供了有效的定量分析手段。最后,由于導(dǎo)致航班延誤的因素各種各樣,相應(yīng)的航班延誤情況也相對(duì)復(fù)雜。在不同延誤因素或者不同延誤時(shí)長(zhǎng)下,各延誤航班對(duì)應(yīng)的服務(wù)也會(huì)有一定區(qū)別。通過(guò)對(duì)航空公司航班延誤評(píng)估,提出不同情況下的服務(wù)補(bǔ)救建議,如不同延誤時(shí)長(zhǎng)情況下、不同延誤原因情況下等,以期提升航班延誤情況下服務(wù)保障。以上有關(guān)航班延誤波及的分析,能夠幫助相關(guān)部門(mén)進(jìn)行航班延誤相關(guān)問(wèn)題的管理決策。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of air transportation industry, the problem of flight delay and transmission is becoming more and more serious. Controlling and reducing flight delay is a long-term and arduous task of civil aviation management at home and abroad. Mining the inherent characteristics of the data and finding out the trend of flight delay and spread is of great significance to the study of flight delay. This paper studies this problem from the following aspects: firstly, the problem of delay propagating along aircraft resources is studied, and a Bayesian network model based on flight string is established to simulate the relationship between flight delay and flight delay. This paper reveals the influence of abnormal operating conditions on the reliability of flight plan. According to the analysis of the reliability of flight operation, we find out the weak link in the flight string, that is, the key airport. The weighted Markov chain model is used to predict the overall delay status of the key airports to reflect the impact of random delay factors on the spread of delay in flight strings, so as to predict the flight delay more accurately. According to the forecast results, the flight plan is adjusted accordingly to improve the operational reliability of the flight plan. Secondly, considering that the aircraft and crew are the main resources for flight, one aircraft and one crew often fly more than one continuous flight in a day. Therefore, if one flight in the flight string is delayed, the delay may spread to the downstream flight along the two flight resources. Based on these two flight resources, two resource separation schemes are proposed. The effects of delay factors on flight departure delay and the operational robustness of the two cases are compared and analyzed, which provides an effective quantitative analysis method for flight delay problem. Due to the variety of factors leading to flight delays, the corresponding flight delays are relatively complex. Under different delay factors or different delay periods, The service corresponding to each delayed flight will also be different. Through the evaluation of the flight delay of the airline, some suggestions for service remedy under different circumstances, such as different delay duration, different reasons for delay, etc., are put forward. In order to improve the service guarantee in the case of flight delay, the above analysis of flight delay ripple can help relevant departments to make management decisions on flight delay related issues.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F562

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