本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長　切入點(diǎn)：經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)　出處：《華僑大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改革開放之后,長達(dá)30多年,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)一直處于快速發(fā)展時(shí)期,與此相伴的是地方債務(wù)規(guī)模也迎來了高速擴(kuò)張階段。在近期,雖然愈演愈烈的地方債務(wù)問題日漸顯著,但地方債務(wù)規(guī)模仍以超出GDP的增速在擴(kuò)張,而我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的速度卻在逐步放緩,并成為整個(gè)社會(huì)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)問題�；诖�,論文通過將城市化水平、財(cái)政集權(quán)和政績考核制度置于同一整體分析框架下,對(duì)地方政府舉債行為的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng)進(jìn)行深入地再評(píng)估。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):地方債務(wù)確實(shí)會(huì)影響區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。還需注意的是,城市化水平對(duì)地方債務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng)存在正向影響,且這種影響隨著時(shí)間的推移越強(qiáng)烈,但是會(huì)受到政績考核機(jī)制的影響而逐漸減弱。此外,盡管政績考核制度對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有促進(jìn)作用,但是,政績考核制度對(duì)地方政府舉債行為的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng)卻存在負(fù)面沖擊。與此同時(shí),由于財(cái)政集權(quán)極有可能導(dǎo)致用于城市化建設(shè)的地方債務(wù)的配置效率低下,從而使得城市化水平對(duì)地方政府舉債行為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng)的正向影響會(huì)受到財(cái)政集權(quán)的抑制。但是,財(cái)政集權(quán)和政績考核的相互作用對(duì)地方債務(wù)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng)卻存在著顯著的正面效應(yīng)。其次,對(duì)地方債務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng)進(jìn)行再評(píng)估之后,論文對(duì)地方債務(wù)作用于經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的傳導(dǎo)渠道,以及土地財(cái)政和政治周期對(duì)該渠道的影響等進(jìn)行了較為全面地探討。發(fā)現(xiàn):地方政府舉債投融資是擾動(dòng)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定的主要成因,而且土地財(cái)政加劇了投資波動(dòng)渠道的傳導(dǎo)效果,同時(shí),地方債務(wù)的擴(kuò)張速度具有政治周期性的這一特征也不利于地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的穩(wěn)定。最后,基于上述所得結(jié)論,本文對(duì)地方政府舉債行為提出些許建議。
[Abstract]:After the reform and opening up, for more than 30 years, China's economy has been in a period of rapid development, which is accompanied by the rapid expansion of local debt. However, the scale of local debt is still expanding in excess of GDP, while the rate of economic growth in China is gradually slowing down and has become the focus of attention of the whole society. Fiscal centralization and performance appraisal system are placed under the same framework of overall analysis, and the economic growth effect of local government borrowing behavior is deeply reassessed. The research finds that local debt does affect regional economic growth. The level of urbanization has a positive effect on the economic growth of local debt, and this effect is stronger over time, but will be gradually weakened by the performance assessment mechanism. Although the performance appraisal system can promote the regional economic growth, there is a negative impact on the economic growth effect of the local government's borrowing behavior. As fiscal centralization is likely to lead to inefficient allocation of local debt for urbanization construction, the positive impact of urbanization on the economic growth effects of local governments' borrowing behavior will be restrained by fiscal centralization. However, the interaction between fiscal centralization and performance assessment has a significant positive effect on the economic growth of local debt. Secondly, after reassessing the economic growth effect of local debt, The paper discusses the transmission channel of local debt acting on economic fluctuation and the influence of land finance and political cycle on this channel. It is found that local government borrowing and financing is the main cause of disturbing regional economic stability. Moreover, the land finance intensifies the transmission effect of the investment fluctuation channel, at the same time, the speed of the local debt expansion with the political periodicity is also not conducive to the stability of the regional economic environment. Finally, based on the above conclusions, This article puts forward some suggestions to the local government's borrowing behavior.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5;F124.1;F124.8

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