虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-14 10:47
【摘要】： 20世紀(jì)90年代以來隨著金融業(yè),房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的不斷發(fā)展,各國的虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)成分日趨擴(kuò)大,經(jīng)濟(jì)虛擬化進(jìn)程加快,虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展對國家經(jīng)濟(jì)安全的穩(wěn)定作用越來越大。實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,經(jīng)濟(jì)機(jī)制運(yùn)行效率的提高,均與虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)的擴(kuò)張發(fā)展密切相關(guān)。合理健康的虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展會對實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生有利的影響,起到“潤滑劑”的作用,但虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)過度膨脹又會引致泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì),損害社會經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。如何防止虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)過度膨脹引致泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融危機(jī)已成為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界的熱點(diǎn)。 本文的選題正是基于上述的問題的思考,所要研究的核心問題是虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系。受時(shí)間和資料的限制,本文主要討論以下幾個問題:①什么是虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)以及中國虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)是否協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展;②虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長如何產(chǎn)生影響,影響的程度有多大;③中國虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的對策是什么。 本文在研究過程中,主要采用理論分析和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)相結(jié)合、定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合的研究方法。研究的主要結(jié)論為: ①中國目前所提出的虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)是在馬克思的“虛擬資本”的角度提出的,它是指在經(jīng)濟(jì)金融全球化的環(huán)境下,以現(xiàn)代信用制度為依據(jù),以金融系統(tǒng)為主要依托,虛擬資本進(jìn)行循環(huán)運(yùn)動而形成的一種相對獨(dú)立的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動。但是虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)又與金融和泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)有著很大的區(qū)別。本文采用生態(tài)學(xué)中的耦合度分析法對1991年到2005年我國虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)度進(jìn)行了分析。結(jié)果顯示:1991年到1993年耦合度是下降的;1994年到1997年耦合度呈平穩(wěn)的上升趨勢;從1998年到2000年耦合度又一直處于緩慢的下降階段;2001年到2003年耦合度下降的幅度降低了;2004年以后的耦合度突然下降。最后對這種變化趨勢進(jìn)行了理論分析。 ②虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的作用機(jī)制主要是股市的財(cái)富效應(yīng)和資本市場的帕加洛模型。分析表明:我國股市存在微弱的正財(cái)富效應(yīng);儲蓄率、儲蓄-投資轉(zhuǎn)化率及資本邊際生產(chǎn)率構(gòu)成了我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的決定因素,影響這三個變量的任何因素都將影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。 ③虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的作用機(jī)制是從虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)對金融結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和所有制結(jié)構(gòu)這三個層面來分析的。結(jié)果表明:我國目前的金融結(jié)構(gòu)是以銀行為主導(dǎo)以市場為輔助的金融結(jié)構(gòu),隨著虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷發(fā)展,我國股票市場、債券市場的不斷完善,以市場為主導(dǎo)的金融結(jié)構(gòu)將是我國金融結(jié)構(gòu)的發(fā)展和改革趨勢。虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)與所有制結(jié)構(gòu)的變化是互為因果關(guān)系的,與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)是單向的因果的關(guān)系,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級需要與一定的金融發(fā)展水平相配套。要使虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)變化的步調(diào)是協(xié)調(diào)一致的,就要從多個方面共同發(fā)展,因?yàn)槿魏我粋�方面如果發(fā)展不起來,就會制約其他經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的發(fā)展。 ④虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展應(yīng)從3個方面著手:首先,積極推進(jìn)虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的高層次結(jié)合;其次,提高虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的貢獻(xiàn)性和對經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的促進(jìn)作用;最后,在經(jīng)濟(jì)金融全球化的情況下,我國要正確分析經(jīng)濟(jì)金融全球化給我國資本市場帶來的利弊,并且要制定合理的發(fā)展策略。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, with the continuous development of financial industry and real estate industry, the composition of virtual economy has been enlarged day by day, the process of economic virtualization has been accelerated, and the healthy development of virtual economy has played a more and more important role in the stability of national economic security. Reasonable and healthy development of fictitious economy will have a favorable impact on real economy and play the role of "lubricant", but excessive expansion of fictitious economy will lead to bubble economy and damage the development of social economy.
This paper is based on the above-mentioned issues of thinking, the core of the study is the relationship between virtual economic development and economic growth. Restricted by time and information, this paper mainly discusses the following issues: what is the virtual economy and China's virtual economy and real economy is coordinated development; How and to what extent does it affect economic growth? What are the Countermeasures for the coordinated development of China's fictitious economic development and economic growth?
In the course of the research, this paper mainly adopts the method of combining theoretical analysis with empirical test, and combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis.
(1) The fictitious economy put forward by China at present is put forward from the angle of Marx's "fictitious capital". It refers to a relatively independent economic activity under the environment of economic and financial globalization, based on the modern credit system, with the financial system as the main support and the fictitious capital circulating. It is quite different from finance and bubble economy. This paper analyzes the coordination degree between fictitious economy and real economy in China from 1991 to 2005 by coupling degree analysis in ecology. The results show that the coupling degree decreases from 1991 to 1993; the coupling degree increases steadily from 1994 to 1997; and the coupling degree increases from 1998 to 2000. The degree of coupling declined slowly from 2001 to 2003. The degree of coupling declined abruptly after 2004. Finally, the trend was analyzed theoretically.
The analysis shows that there is a weak positive wealth effect in China's stock market, and that the savings rate, the savings-investment conversion rate and the marginal capital productivity constitute the determinants of China's economic growth, and they are the three variables. Any factor will affect economic growth.
The results show that the current financial structure in China is a financial structure dominated by banks and supplemented by the market. With the continuous development of the virtual economy, China's stock market, bonds and so on. With the continuous improvement of the market, the development and reform of China's financial structure will be dominated by the market. The changes of the virtual economy and ownership structure are mutually causal, and the industrial structure is one-way causal. The upgrading of the industrial structure needs to be matched with a certain level of financial development. The pace of development and economic structural change is coordinated and should be developed in many ways, because if any one aspect can not be developed, it will restrict the development of other economic aspects.
(4) The coordinated development of fictitious economy and economic growth should start from three aspects: firstly, actively promoting the high-level combination of fictitious economy and real economy; secondly, improving the contribution of fictitious economy to the total economic volume and promoting the upgrading of economic structure; finally, in the context of economic and financial globalization, China should correctly analyze the economy. The advantages and disadvantages brought by financial globalization to China's capital market and the rational development strategy should be formulated.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2008
【分類號】：F224;F49;F061.2
本文編號：2242485
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, with the continuous development of financial industry and real estate industry, the composition of virtual economy has been enlarged day by day, the process of economic virtualization has been accelerated, and the healthy development of virtual economy has played a more and more important role in the stability of national economic security. Reasonable and healthy development of fictitious economy will have a favorable impact on real economy and play the role of "lubricant", but excessive expansion of fictitious economy will lead to bubble economy and damage the development of social economy.
This paper is based on the above-mentioned issues of thinking, the core of the study is the relationship between virtual economic development and economic growth. Restricted by time and information, this paper mainly discusses the following issues: what is the virtual economy and China's virtual economy and real economy is coordinated development; How and to what extent does it affect economic growth? What are the Countermeasures for the coordinated development of China's fictitious economic development and economic growth?
In the course of the research, this paper mainly adopts the method of combining theoretical analysis with empirical test, and combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis.
(1) The fictitious economy put forward by China at present is put forward from the angle of Marx's "fictitious capital". It refers to a relatively independent economic activity under the environment of economic and financial globalization, based on the modern credit system, with the financial system as the main support and the fictitious capital circulating. It is quite different from finance and bubble economy. This paper analyzes the coordination degree between fictitious economy and real economy in China from 1991 to 2005 by coupling degree analysis in ecology. The results show that the coupling degree decreases from 1991 to 1993; the coupling degree increases steadily from 1994 to 1997; and the coupling degree increases from 1998 to 2000. The degree of coupling declined slowly from 2001 to 2003. The degree of coupling declined abruptly after 2004. Finally, the trend was analyzed theoretically.
The analysis shows that there is a weak positive wealth effect in China's stock market, and that the savings rate, the savings-investment conversion rate and the marginal capital productivity constitute the determinants of China's economic growth, and they are the three variables. Any factor will affect economic growth.
The results show that the current financial structure in China is a financial structure dominated by banks and supplemented by the market. With the continuous development of the virtual economy, China's stock market, bonds and so on. With the continuous improvement of the market, the development and reform of China's financial structure will be dominated by the market. The changes of the virtual economy and ownership structure are mutually causal, and the industrial structure is one-way causal. The upgrading of the industrial structure needs to be matched with a certain level of financial development. The pace of development and economic structural change is coordinated and should be developed in many ways, because if any one aspect can not be developed, it will restrict the development of other economic aspects.
(4) The coordinated development of fictitious economy and economic growth should start from three aspects: firstly, actively promoting the high-level combination of fictitious economy and real economy; secondly, improving the contribution of fictitious economy to the total economic volume and promoting the upgrading of economic structure; finally, in the context of economic and financial globalization, China should correctly analyze the economy. The advantages and disadvantages brought by financial globalization to China's capital market and the rational development strategy should be formulated.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2008
【分類號】：F224;F49;F061.2
【引證文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條
1 楊運(yùn)星;;論虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定性、系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與經(jīng)濟(jì)安全[J];商業(yè)時(shí)代;2013年24期
，本文編號：2242485
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