【摘要】：2014年經(jīng)濟(jì)匯報(bào)顯示我國去年國民生產(chǎn)總值增長了7.7%，增長勢(shì)頭良好。在我國經(jīng)濟(jì)大發(fā)展的環(huán)境下，上市公司為獲得長足發(fā)展，其競(jìng)爭也愈演愈烈。公司經(jīng)營中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素很多，如果不及時(shí)加以防范，有可能導(dǎo)致公司利益受損，甚至出現(xiàn)破產(chǎn)倒閉的情況。及早的對(duì)有關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)困境的影響因素進(jìn)行分析，才能采取有效的措施防范公司陷入財(cái)務(wù)困境。另外，深入分析上市企業(yè)陷入財(cái)務(wù)困境的影響因素，對(duì)提高企業(yè)管理經(jīng)營質(zhì)量，促進(jìn)我國市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的良性發(fā)展也是非常重要。 本文通過整理相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)資料和理論知識(shí)，首先把近年來不同學(xué)者對(duì)我國上市公司發(fā)生財(cái)務(wù)困境的研究成果做了基本的概括和闡述。在研究中把被特殊處理的上市公司為財(cái)務(wù)困境的研究對(duì)象，一共選取了近三年的74家上市公司，其中37家是被ST公司，另外37家是與之配對(duì)的財(cái)務(wù)正常的公司。結(jié)合以往學(xué)者對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)困境影響因素的分析，本人選取了反映財(cái)務(wù)因素和非財(cái)務(wù)因素的共57個(gè)指標(biāo)變量。財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)變量分別包括盈利能力、股東獲利能力、現(xiàn)金流量能力、營運(yùn)能力、發(fā)展能力、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平、短期償債能力和長期償債能力八個(gè)大類；非財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)包括股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)和公司治理兩個(gè)大類。通過wilcoxon符號(hào)秩檢驗(yàn)對(duì)指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)差異的顯著性進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)，剔除沒有顯著性差異的指標(biāo)后，構(gòu)建了較為全面的指標(biāo)體系。然后利用SPSS軟件對(duì)指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行因子分析，提取公共因子并得出因子得分矩陣，，根據(jù)因子得分建立控制函數(shù)，以此來對(duì)每一類別的指標(biāo)分別構(gòu)建二元Logistic回歸模型。最后在融合各指標(biāo)類別中有代表性的指標(biāo)后，構(gòu)建一個(gè)綜合指標(biāo)的回歸模型，進(jìn)一步對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)困境的影響因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。 本文最后，對(duì)論文進(jìn)行了總結(jié)和反思，并提出了幾點(diǎn)建議，以便讀者在實(shí)際中能應(yīng)用到此次的實(shí)證成果，快捷有效的進(jìn)行分析研究。最終希望本文的研究能對(duì)投資者進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)分析，管理者進(jìn)行公司治理起到一定的指導(dǎo)作用。
[Abstract]:The 2014 economic report showed that China's gross national product (GNP) grew by 7.7% last year, with a good momentum of growth. In the environment of great economic development of our country, the competition of listed companies is becoming more and more intense in order to obtain rapid development. There are many risk factors in the management of the company, if it is not prevented in time, it may lead to the loss of the interests of the company, and even the situation of bankruptcy and bankruptcy. In order to take effective measures to prevent companies from falling into financial distress, we can analyze the influencing factors of financial distress as early as possible. In addition, it is also very important to analyze the factors that affect the financial distress of listed enterprises in order to improve the management quality of enterprises and promote the healthy development of market economy in our country. In this paper, by sorting out the relevant literature and theoretical knowledge, first of all, different scholars on the financial distress of listed companies in China in recent years to do a basic summary and elaboration. In the study, the listed companies which are specially treated are regarded as the research objects of financial distress. A total of 74 listed companies have been selected in the past three years, of which 37 are ST companies, and the other 37 are matched with them. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of financial distress in the past, I selected 57 index variables which reflect financial factors and non-financial factors. Financial index variables include profitability, shareholder profitability, cash flow capacity, operating capacity, development capacity, risk level, short-term solvency and long-term solvency. Non-financial indicators include equity structure and corporate governance two broad categories. The significance of the difference of index data was tested by wilcoxon sign rank test, and a more comprehensive index system was constructed after excluding the index without significant difference. Then we use SPSS software to analyze the index data, extract the common factor and get the factor score matrix, and establish the control function according to the factor score to construct the binary Logistic regression model for each index. Finally, a regression model of comprehensive indicators is constructed after merging the representative indicators in each index category, and then the factors affecting financial distress are analyzed empirically. Finally, this paper summarizes and reflects on the paper, and puts forward several suggestions, so that readers can be applied to the empirical results in practice, and analysis and research is carried out quickly and effectively. Finally, it is hoped that the research in this paper can provide guidance to investors and corporate governance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F276.6;F224

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