本文選題：國(guó)際貿(mào)易 + 就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)�。� 參考：《西南政法大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)的國(guó)際貿(mào)易在改革開(kāi)放期間發(fā)展尤為迅速，1978年至2013年間我國(guó)出口總額增長(zhǎng)逾200倍，2013年進(jìn)出口總額首次沖破4萬(wàn)億美元，，超過(guò)美國(guó)居世界首位。近年來(lái)我國(guó)外貿(mào)凈出口對(duì)GDP增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)保持在10%左右，國(guó)際貿(mào)易在促進(jìn)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的同時(shí)，也為國(guó)內(nèi)創(chuàng)造了大量就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。我國(guó)就業(yè)量從1991年的58360萬(wàn)人增至2012年的76704萬(wàn)人，2013年上半年城鎮(zhèn)新增就業(yè)人數(shù)達(dá)725萬(wàn)，呈現(xiàn)“逆增長(zhǎng)”態(tài)勢(shì)，但就業(yè)形勢(shì)依然嚴(yán)峻。在遭遇金融危機(jī)沖擊后的2009年我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率漲至4.3%，之后有所下降，但2012年城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率也高達(dá)到4.1%。就業(yè)是民生之本，也是國(guó)家宏觀調(diào)控的重要目標(biāo)，增進(jìn)就業(yè)不僅在于量的提高，更在于就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化。目前，我國(guó)結(jié)構(gòu)性失業(yè)問(wèn)題嚴(yán)重，就業(yè)人口的產(chǎn)業(yè)分布和地區(qū)分布極不平衡。因此，在高對(duì)外貿(mào)易依存度下，考察國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)我國(guó)就業(yè)總量和就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響有利于改善外貿(mào)政策，提高國(guó)際貿(mào)易廣度和深度，并優(yōu)化國(guó)內(nèi)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，促進(jìn)改革的深化和國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)發(fā)展。 本文在對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行梳理、對(duì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易與就業(yè)相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行總結(jié)、對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易與就業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上，利用全國(guó)31個(gè)省市數(shù)據(jù)建立動(dòng)態(tài)面板模型，以對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易對(duì)就業(yè)的影響進(jìn)行全面考察。本文結(jié)構(gòu)可分為五部分。第一部分為緒論，包括研究背景和意義、研究方法和主要內(nèi)容、創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)和不足。第二部分為文獻(xiàn)綜述，主要包括就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)理論、國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)影響的實(shí)證研究，以及對(duì)現(xiàn)有理論與實(shí)證研究成果的評(píng)述。第三部分分析了我國(guó)國(guó)際貿(mào)易發(fā)展與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的演變，其中還包括國(guó)際貿(mào)易影響就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的理論基礎(chǔ)，以及國(guó)際貿(mào)易帶動(dòng)我國(guó)就業(yè)和改善就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)所面臨的問(wèn)題。第四部分首先從理論模型的推導(dǎo)考察國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)就業(yè)量的影響，其次通過(guò)建立動(dòng)態(tài)面板模型利用相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)證分析國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)我國(guó)就業(yè)總量、就業(yè)人口產(chǎn)業(yè)分布及區(qū)域分布的影響。第五部分為本文結(jié)論及政策建議。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：第一，出口對(duì)我國(guó)就業(yè)具有顯著正效應(yīng)，但影響程度較小，而進(jìn)口的增長(zhǎng)阻礙了我國(guó)就業(yè)；第二，出口對(duì)我國(guó)三大產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)量均具有顯著正效應(yīng)，其中出口對(duì)第一、二產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)量的影響大于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)；第三，進(jìn)口對(duì)三大產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)規(guī)模均具有顯著負(fù)效應(yīng)，其中進(jìn)口對(duì)西部就業(yè)量的影響最大。第四，國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)我國(guó)東中西三大區(qū)域就業(yè)量具有不同影響，其中進(jìn)出口僅對(duì)西部有顯著影響。最后，根據(jù)分析結(jié)果提出調(diào)整國(guó)際貿(mào)易政策、改善貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)和就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，進(jìn)而促進(jìn)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:China's international trade developed rapidly during the period of reform and opening up. Between 1978 and 2013, the total export volume of China increased by more than 200 times, and the total import and export volume of China exceeded $4 trillion for the first time in 2013, surpassing the United States' ranking first in the world. In recent years, the contribution of China's net foreign trade to GDP growth has remained at about 10%. While international trade promotes the development of the national economy, it also creates a large number of employment opportunities for China. The employment volume in China increased from 583.6 million in 1991 to 767.04 million in 2012. In the first half of 2013, the number of new jobs in cities and towns reached 7.25 million, showing a trend of "inverse growth", but the employment situation is still grim. After the financial crisis hit China's urban registered unemployment rate rose to 4.3 in 2009, then declined, but the urban registered unemployment rate reached 4.1 percent in 2012. Employment is not only the foundation of people's livelihood, but also the important goal of national macro-control. Increasing employment lies not only in the increase of quantity, but also in the optimization of employment structure. At present, the problem of structural unemployment in China is serious, and the industrial and regional distribution of employed population is very unbalanced. Therefore, under the high degree of dependence on foreign trade, studying the impact of international trade on China's total employment and employment structure is conducive to improving foreign trade policies, increasing the breadth and depth of international trade, and optimizing the domestic employment structure. We will promote the deepening of reform and the sustained development of the national economy. On the basis of combing the relevant literature at home and abroad, summarizing the relevant theories of international trade and employment, and analyzing the current situation of foreign trade and employment in China, the dynamic panel model is established by using the data of 31 provinces and cities. In order to our country foreign trade to the employment influence carries on the comprehensive inspection. The structure of this paper can be divided into five parts. The first part is the introduction, including the research background and significance, research methods and main contents, innovation points and deficiencies. The second part is the literature review, including the theory of employment structure change, the empirical research on the impact of international trade on employment structure, and the review of the existing theoretical and empirical research results. The third part analyzes the development of China's international trade and the evolution of employment structure, including the theoretical basis of international trade affecting the employment structure, as well as the problems faced by international trade in promoting China's employment and improving the employment structure. In the fourth part, the influence of international trade on employment is investigated from the theoretical model, and then the total employment of China is analyzed by using the dynamic panel model. The influence of industrial distribution and regional distribution of employed population. The fifth part is the conclusion and policy suggestion. The empirical results show that: first, export has a significant positive effect on China's employment, but to a lesser extent, while the growth of imports hinders employment in China; second, export has a significant positive effect on the employment of the three major industries in China. The effect of export on the employment of the first and second industries is greater than that of the tertiary industry. Thirdly, the import has a significant negative effect on the employment scale of the three industries, among which the import has the greatest impact on the employment volume in the western region. Fourth, international trade has different influence on the employment volume of the three regions of east, west and west of China, among which import and export have significant influence only on the west. Finally, according to the results of the analysis, the author puts forward some policy suggestions to adjust the international trade policy, improve the trade structure and employment structure, and then promote the employment growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F249.2;F752

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本文編號(hào)：1917214