本文選題：房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng) + 金融穩(wěn)定��； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)本身資金密集型的特點(diǎn)使其與金融體系的產(chǎn)生了緊密的聯(lián)系。一方面房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的供給方和需求方都需要金融體系的支持；另一方面，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)飛速發(fā)展所帶來(lái)的高額利潤(rùn)也促使各類金融機(jī)構(gòu)更加深入地滲透進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)。然而，隨著房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)與金融體系關(guān)聯(lián)度的加深，金融機(jī)構(gòu)變得更加容易暴露于房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中。我國(guó)目前處在房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)過(guò)快或房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格長(zhǎng)期處于非正常高位狀態(tài)，累積了一定的資產(chǎn)泡沫。因此，探討房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)金融穩(wěn)定的影響，對(duì)有效調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)，減緩房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)金融穩(wěn)定的沖擊，具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文在梳理了相關(guān)國(guó)內(nèi)外研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，首先研究了房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格和金融穩(wěn)定的相關(guān)理論，并詳細(xì)分析了房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)影響金融穩(wěn)定的機(jī)制。然后，本文回顧了國(guó)際上典型的由房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)引發(fā)的金融危機(jī)——日本泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)的破滅和美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)，分析在實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)是如何對(duì)金融體系產(chǎn)生沖擊的。在此基礎(chǔ)上，本文選取了10個(gè)指標(biāo)，通過(guò)層次分析法構(gòu)建了反映我國(guó)金融狀況的金融穩(wěn)定指數(shù)。并運(yùn)用VAR-GARCH-BEKK模型，，從溢出效應(yīng)視角檢驗(yàn)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)金融穩(wěn)定的影響。最后針對(duì)理論、實(shí)證結(jié)果提出了相關(guān)政策建議。 通過(guò)理論和實(shí)證研究，本文得出如下結(jié)論：首先，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)主要通過(guò)財(cái)富效應(yīng)機(jī)制、托賓Q效應(yīng)機(jī)制、銀行信貸機(jī)制以及影子銀行機(jī)制影響金融體系的穩(wěn)定性。其次，通過(guò)計(jì)算、分析金融穩(wěn)定指數(shù)發(fā)現(xiàn)，我國(guó)金融體系的穩(wěn)定性從2003年開始基本處于穩(wěn)步上升的階段，在2008年有一次明顯下滑，于2010年開始重新緩慢升高，但我國(guó)金融體系仍存在潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，值得關(guān)注。再次，通過(guò)實(shí)證發(fā)現(xiàn)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)金融穩(wěn)定指數(shù)在均值和波動(dòng)層面均存在溢出效應(yīng)。最后，基于以上的研究分析，本文提出了調(diào)控房?jī)r(jià)平穩(wěn)著陸，控制房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)向金融體系擴(kuò)散的相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:The capital-intensive nature of the real estate industry makes it closely related to the financial system. On the one hand, the supply and demand of the real estate market need the support of the financial system; on the other hand, the high profits brought by the rapid development of the real estate market also urge all kinds of financial institutions to penetrate into the real estate market more deeply. However, as the relationship between the real estate industry and the financial system deepens, financial institutions become more vulnerable to the risks of the real estate market. Our country is in the real estate price growth too fast or the real estate price is in the abnormal high state for a long time at present, accumulated certain asset bubble. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to discuss the effect of real estate price fluctuation on financial stability, to regulate the real estate price fluctuation effectively and to slow down the impact of real estate price fluctuation on financial stability. Based on the research results at home and abroad, this paper firstly studies the theory of real estate price and financial stability, and analyzes the mechanism of real estate price fluctuation affecting financial stability in detail. Then, this paper reviews the typical international financial crisis caused by the fluctuation of real estate prices-the bursting of the Japanese bubble economy and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, and analyzes the actual economic operation. How the volatility of real estate prices impacts the financial system. On this basis, this paper selects 10 indexes, and constructs the financial stability index which reflects the financial situation of our country by Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). VAR-GARCH-BEKK model is used to test the impact of real estate price fluctuation on financial stability from the perspective of spillover effect. Finally, according to the theory, the empirical results put forward the relevant policy recommendations. Through theoretical and empirical research, this paper draws the following conclusions: firstly, the volatility of real estate prices mainly affects the stability of financial system through wealth effect mechanism, Tobin Q effect mechanism, bank credit mechanism and shadow banking mechanism. Secondly, through calculation and analysis of the financial stability index, we find that the stability of our financial system has been in a stage of steady increase since 2003. In 2008, there was a significant decline, and in 2010, the stability of the financial system began to rise slowly again. However, there are still potential risks in our financial system, which are worthy of attention. Thirdly, it is found that real estate price volatility has spillover effects on the average and volatility levels of the financial stability index. Finally, based on the above research and analysis, this paper puts forward the relevant policy recommendations to control the stable landing of house prices and to control the spread of real estate risks to the financial system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F832

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