本文選題：區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì) + 關(guān)聯(lián)性�。� 參考：《燕山大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：物流業(yè)是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的基礎(chǔ)性產(chǎn)業(yè)，是國家發(fā)展水平和綜合實(shí)力的重要標(biāo)志之一。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化和區(qū)域一體化的不斷加速以及IT技術(shù)的進(jìn)步，物流作為“第三利潤來源”的重要性越來越突出。本文的研究旨在深刻揭示河北省區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)與物流發(fā)展之間的內(nèi)在關(guān)聯(lián)，，準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測河北省區(qū)域物流需求，為相關(guān)企事業(yè)單位物流體系建設(shè)和政府部門區(qū)域物流發(fā)展規(guī)劃提供決策依據(jù)。論文突破了僅依靠歷史物流數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行預(yù)測的局限，克服了以線性模型進(jìn)行物流需求預(yù)測的不足，提出了針對性的政策建議，因而具有重要的理論意義和實(shí)踐應(yīng)用價值。 首先，綜述了國內(nèi)外在物流需求方面的研究成果并指出當(dāng)前研究中存在的不足，同時系統(tǒng)闡述了區(qū)域物流預(yù)測相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)理論，為論文的研究奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。 其次，全面分析河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)和物流發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，以Logistic增長模型為基礎(chǔ)，計算河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)與物流發(fā)展之間的邊際效應(yīng)和彈性系數(shù)，有力揭示其相互促進(jìn)的相關(guān)關(guān)系。 再次，從區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)與物流關(guān)聯(lián)性角度，分析物流需求預(yù)測的影響因素并建立河北省物流需求預(yù)測指標(biāo)體系，綜合運(yùn)用GM(1,1)模型和支持向量回歸機(jī)方法構(gòu)建河北省物流需求預(yù)測模型。 最后，基于1990-2012年的數(shù)據(jù)，預(yù)測河北省物流需求，并根據(jù)預(yù)測結(jié)果和區(qū)域物流發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，提出針對性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Logistics industry is the basic industry of national economy and one of the important symbols of national development level and comprehensive strength.With the acceleration of economic globalization and regional integration and the progress of IT technology, the importance of logistics as the "third profit source" is becoming more and more prominent.The purpose of this paper is to reveal the inner relationship between regional economy and logistics development in Hebei Province, and to accurately predict the demand of regional logistics in Hebei Province.It provides decision-making basis for logistics system construction and regional logistics development planning of relevant enterprises and institutions.This paper breaks through the limitation of only relying on historical logistics data to forecast, overcomes the shortage of forecasting logistics demand by linear model, and puts forward some pertinent policy suggestions, so it has important theoretical significance and practical application value.First of all, this paper summarizes the domestic and foreign research results in logistics demand and points out the shortcomings of the current research. At the same time, it systematically expounds the basic theory of regional logistics prediction, which lays a theoretical foundation for the research of this paper.Secondly, based on the Logistic growth model, the marginal effect and elastic coefficient of Hebei Province economy and logistics development are calculated, and the correlation between them is revealed.Thirdly, from the angle of regional economy and logistics correlation, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of logistics demand forecasting and establishes the logistics demand forecasting index system of Hebei Province.The forecasting model of logistics demand in Hebei Province is constructed by using GMGM-1) model and support vector regression machine method.Finally, based on the data from 1990 to 2012, the logistics demand of Hebei Province is forecasted, and according to the forecast results and the current situation of regional logistics development, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：燕山大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F259.27;F127

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