長(zhǎng)三角城市工業(yè)碳排放影響因素的實(shí)證研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-09 16:27
【摘要】：長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)已成為我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量規(guī)模最大、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度最快、發(fā)展前景最為廣闊的經(jīng)濟(jì)核心區(qū)域。改革開放之后，尤其是20世紀(jì)90年代以來，長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展跨入了現(xiàn)代化的新階段。作為中國(guó)近代民族工業(yè)的發(fā)源地，長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)的工業(yè)發(fā)展對(duì)于其經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起到了主導(dǎo)作用。2012年，長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)實(shí)現(xiàn)規(guī)模以上工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值17.35萬億元，比上年同期增長(zhǎng)了6.9%，在2000-2011年期間，長(zhǎng)三角6個(gè)主要城市上海、南京、蘇州、無錫、杭州和寧波的工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值總和的年平均增長(zhǎng)為18.69%。 工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速發(fā)展需要消耗大量的能源資源，但長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)一直以來能源資源十分匱乏，一次能源絕大部分需要從區(qū)外調(diào)入或進(jìn)口。2007年，長(zhǎng)三角的能源消耗總量達(dá)44871萬噸，能源消費(fèi)總量占全國(guó)比重16.9%，能耗增長(zhǎng)速度為9.82%，高于國(guó)家平均水平7.80%的速度。2011年，長(zhǎng)三角主要的6個(gè)城市的工業(yè)能源消費(fèi)總量相比2000年增長(zhǎng)了1.56倍，在此條件下，到2020年，長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)的GDP要在2000年基礎(chǔ)上翻兩番，能源的需求量也必將大幅度增加。隨著能源消耗的增加，工業(yè)二氧化碳的排放量也將不斷上升，在長(zhǎng)三角6個(gè)城市各自的研究樣本期間內(nèi)，CO2的年平均增長(zhǎng)速度都在5%以上，節(jié)能減排的形勢(shì)十分嚴(yán)峻。由此可見，工業(yè)的發(fā)展在促進(jìn)長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的同時(shí)也對(duì)其環(huán)境造成了巨大的污染，，不利于經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 本文通過因素分解模型和面板數(shù)據(jù)模型實(shí)證分析了影響長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)城市的工業(yè)二氧化碳排放的主要因素。首先，文章介紹了CO2減排的研究背景及意義，并就目前國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與二氧化碳排放關(guān)系等相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行理論綜述，為后面的實(shí)證分析奠定理論基礎(chǔ)；其次分析了2000-2011年期間長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)主要的6個(gè)城市的工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、能源消費(fèi)及CO2排放的現(xiàn)狀和變化趨勢(shì)，通過建立LMDI模型和面板數(shù)據(jù)模型分析了長(zhǎng)三角地區(qū)6個(gè)城市工業(yè)碳排放變化的影響因素及程度；最后針對(duì)每個(gè)城市工業(yè)細(xì)分不同的行業(yè)從多個(gè)角度提出對(duì)策建議，以求促進(jìn)長(zhǎng)三角城市工業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 通過理論和實(shí)證的分析研究，本文得到以下幾個(gè)結(jié)論：導(dǎo)致工業(yè)二氧化碳排放量增加的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素是工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，抑制因素是能源強(qiáng)度，工業(yè)部門內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)也在一定程度上減緩了工業(yè)碳排放的增長(zhǎng)速度，但抑制作用沒有能源強(qiáng)度大，能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)于碳排放的促進(jìn)或抑制作用不是很明顯；從工業(yè)分行業(yè)來看，長(zhǎng)三角6個(gè)城市的工業(yè)二氧化碳量增加最為明顯的行業(yè)主要集中在黑色金屬冶煉及壓延加工業(yè)、電力、熱力的生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè)等高能耗行業(yè)，它們的工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展較快，且行業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的比重較高，所以在優(yōu)化和調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)時(shí)應(yīng)當(dāng)注重這些行業(yè)；石油加工、煉焦及核燃料加工業(yè)、黑色金屬冶煉及壓延加工業(yè)、電力、熱力的生產(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè)的能源強(qiáng)度的變化抵消了大部分由其他行業(yè)所增加的碳排放，所以可以通過引進(jìn)和應(yīng)用先進(jìn)生產(chǎn)技術(shù)和設(shè)備來降低能源強(qiáng)度，提高能源的使用效率。此外，工業(yè)人口規(guī)模也是導(dǎo)致碳排放增加的一個(gè)重要因素，在將來的節(jié)能減排過程中也要注意繼續(xù)控制工業(yè)平均從業(yè)人員的不斷膨脹，從而進(jìn)一步減小其對(duì)工業(yè)碳排放的促進(jìn)作用。
[Abstract]:The Yangtze River Delta region has become the most economic core region with the largest economic aggregate scale, the fastest economic development speed and the development prospect. Since the reform and opening-up, especially since the 1990s, the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta has entered a new stage of modernization. As the source of modern national industry in China, the industrial development of the Yangtze River Delta region has played a leading role in the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta. In 2012, the total industrial output value of the Yangtze River Delta region reached 17.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 6. 9% over the same period of the previous year, during the period 2000-2011, The annual average annual growth of the total industrial output value of 6 major cities in the Yangtze River Delta, including Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Hangzhou and Ningbo, was 18.69%. The rapid development of the industrial economy needs to consume a large amount of energy resources, but the energy resources in the Yangtze River Delta region have been scarce, and most of the energy resources need to be transferred or imported from the outside of the region. In 2007, the total energy consumption of the Yangtze River Delta was 44871. In 2011, the total industrial energy consumption of the major six cities in the Yangtze River Delta increased by 1.56 times compared with that in 2000, and under this condition, the total energy consumption of the major six cities in the Yangtze River Delta increased by 1.56 times compared with that in 2000. In the 0-year period, the GDP of the Yangtze River Delta region will be doubled on the basis of the year 2000, and the demand for energy will also be greatly increased With the increase of energy consumption, the emission of industrial carbon dioxide will also rise, and the annual average growth rate of CO2 is over 5% during each of the six cities in the Yangtze River Delta, and the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction is very important It can be seen that the development of the industry has caused great pollution to the environment of the Yangtze River Delta, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of the economy. In this paper, the industrial carbon dioxide emission in the city of the Yangtze River Delta is analyzed by the factor decomposition model and the panel data model. First of all, the paper introduces the research background and significance of CO2 emission reduction, and reviews the current situation of research on the relationship of economic development and carbon dioxide emission at home and abroad. The paper analyses the current situation and trend of industrial and economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emission of six cities in the Yangtze River Delta region during the period 2000-2011, and analyzes the effect of the change of carbon emission in 6 cities in the Yangtze River Delta by establishing the model of LMDI and the data model of the panel. In the end, the paper puts forward some countermeasures to the different industries in order to promote the city industry in the Yangtze River Delta. Through the theoretical and empirical analysis, the following conclusions are obtained: the main driving factors leading to the increase of the industrial carbon dioxide emission are the development of the industrial economy and the suppression of the development of the industrial economy. The manufacturing factor is the energy intensity, and the internal structure of the industrial sector has slowed the growth rate of the industrial carbon emission to a certain extent, but the inhibition effect does not have the great energy intensity, and the energy consumption structure is not obvious to the promotion or the inhibition of the carbon emission; From the industrial point of view, the most obvious industries of the industrial carbon dioxide in the six cities of the Yangtze River Delta are mainly concentrated in the high energy consumption industries such as ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, electric power, thermal power production and supply industry, and their industrial and economic development is fast, and the industry The proportion of the output value is high, so it is necessary to pay attention to these industries in the optimization and adjustment of the industrial structure; the changes in the energy intensity of the production and supply of the oil, the coking and the nuclear fuel processing industry, the ferrous metal smelting and the rolling processing industry, the electric power, the thermal power, and the supply industry cancel most of the other lines the carbon emissions from the industry can be reduced by the introduction and application of advanced production techniques and equipment, In addition, the scale of industrial population is an important factor leading to the increase of carbon emissions. In the process of energy-saving and emission reduction, it is also important to pay attention to the continuous expansion of industrial average workers, thus further reducing its impact on industry
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F427;X22
本文編號(hào)：2320942
[Abstract]:The Yangtze River Delta region has become the most economic core region with the largest economic aggregate scale, the fastest economic development speed and the development prospect. Since the reform and opening-up, especially since the 1990s, the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta has entered a new stage of modernization. As the source of modern national industry in China, the industrial development of the Yangtze River Delta region has played a leading role in the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta. In 2012, the total industrial output value of the Yangtze River Delta region reached 17.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 6. 9% over the same period of the previous year, during the period 2000-2011, The annual average annual growth of the total industrial output value of 6 major cities in the Yangtze River Delta, including Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Hangzhou and Ningbo, was 18.69%. The rapid development of the industrial economy needs to consume a large amount of energy resources, but the energy resources in the Yangtze River Delta region have been scarce, and most of the energy resources need to be transferred or imported from the outside of the region. In 2007, the total energy consumption of the Yangtze River Delta was 44871. In 2011, the total industrial energy consumption of the major six cities in the Yangtze River Delta increased by 1.56 times compared with that in 2000, and under this condition, the total energy consumption of the major six cities in the Yangtze River Delta increased by 1.56 times compared with that in 2000. In the 0-year period, the GDP of the Yangtze River Delta region will be doubled on the basis of the year 2000, and the demand for energy will also be greatly increased With the increase of energy consumption, the emission of industrial carbon dioxide will also rise, and the annual average growth rate of CO2 is over 5% during each of the six cities in the Yangtze River Delta, and the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction is very important It can be seen that the development of the industry has caused great pollution to the environment of the Yangtze River Delta, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of the economy. In this paper, the industrial carbon dioxide emission in the city of the Yangtze River Delta is analyzed by the factor decomposition model and the panel data model. First of all, the paper introduces the research background and significance of CO2 emission reduction, and reviews the current situation of research on the relationship of economic development and carbon dioxide emission at home and abroad. The paper analyses the current situation and trend of industrial and economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emission of six cities in the Yangtze River Delta region during the period 2000-2011, and analyzes the effect of the change of carbon emission in 6 cities in the Yangtze River Delta by establishing the model of LMDI and the data model of the panel. In the end, the paper puts forward some countermeasures to the different industries in order to promote the city industry in the Yangtze River Delta. Through the theoretical and empirical analysis, the following conclusions are obtained: the main driving factors leading to the increase of the industrial carbon dioxide emission are the development of the industrial economy and the suppression of the development of the industrial economy. The manufacturing factor is the energy intensity, and the internal structure of the industrial sector has slowed the growth rate of the industrial carbon emission to a certain extent, but the inhibition effect does not have the great energy intensity, and the energy consumption structure is not obvious to the promotion or the inhibition of the carbon emission; From the industrial point of view, the most obvious industries of the industrial carbon dioxide in the six cities of the Yangtze River Delta are mainly concentrated in the high energy consumption industries such as ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, electric power, thermal power production and supply industry, and their industrial and economic development is fast, and the industry The proportion of the output value is high, so it is necessary to pay attention to these industries in the optimization and adjustment of the industrial structure; the changes in the energy intensity of the production and supply of the oil, the coking and the nuclear fuel processing industry, the ferrous metal smelting and the rolling processing industry, the electric power, the thermal power, and the supply industry cancel most of the other lines the carbon emissions from the industry can be reduced by the introduction and application of advanced production techniques and equipment, In addition, the scale of industrial population is an important factor leading to the increase of carbon emissions. In the process of energy-saving and emission reduction, it is also important to pay attention to the continuous expansion of industrial average workers, thus further reducing its impact on industry
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F427;X22
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本文編號(hào)：2320942
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