本文選題：服務(wù)業(yè) + 投入產(chǎn)出模型�。� 參考：《廣西師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)廣西服務(wù)業(yè)有了較快的發(fā)展,特別是“八五”、“九五”時(shí)期。首先從勞動(dòng)力結(jié)構(gòu)方面看,上世紀(jì)80年代初期廣西勞動(dòng)力就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)已開(kāi)始發(fā)生了明顯的變化,1980-1999年農(nóng)業(yè)就業(yè)人口數(shù)量雖然增長(zhǎng)了300多萬(wàn),但比重卻由83%降至77%,90年代以來(lái)農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力不僅比例下降,數(shù)量也開(kāi)始減少,到1994年比例降至68%,數(shù)量減少了25萬(wàn)人。通過(guò)調(diào)查研究發(fā)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力主要流向了服務(wù)業(yè)領(lǐng)域。90年代初期到中期,在三次產(chǎn)業(yè)中服務(wù)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力增長(zhǎng)幅度最大,由288萬(wàn)人增長(zhǎng)到479萬(wàn)人,增幅達(dá)到了60%以上,占就業(yè)人口比重由13.7%上升到20.5%,增長(zhǎng)近7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；工業(yè)勞動(dòng)力比重僅由9.8%上升至11.5%,增加了1.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。由此可見(jiàn),服務(wù)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力增幅遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于工業(yè)。到2010年廣西服務(wù)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力已占就業(yè)人員的38%,幾乎與全國(guó)水平相當(dāng)。 當(dāng)前和今后一個(gè)時(shí)期,廣西將進(jìn)入跨越發(fā)展新階段。面臨重大發(fā)展機(jī)遇。和平、發(fā)展、合作仍是時(shí)代潮流,經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化深入發(fā)展,科技創(chuàng)新加快并孕育新突破,國(guó)際分工格局調(diào)整中蘊(yùn)藏著新機(jī)遇,國(guó)際環(huán)境總體有利。我國(guó)發(fā)展仍處于可以大有作為的重要戰(zhàn)略機(jī)遇期,經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型加快,區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展總體戰(zhàn)略進(jìn)一步完善,社會(huì)大局保持穩(wěn)定,廣西發(fā)展面臨良好的國(guó)內(nèi)宏觀環(huán)境。中國(guó)-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)全面建成,西部大開(kāi)發(fā)深入推進(jìn),對(duì)廣西加快將區(qū)位優(yōu)勢(shì)、資源優(yōu)勢(shì)和生態(tài)優(yōu)勢(shì)轉(zhuǎn)化為競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)創(chuàng)造了極為有利的條件,拓展了更為廣闊的發(fā)展空間。面對(duì)發(fā)展呈現(xiàn)出新的階段性特征,經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)加快轉(zhuǎn)型,工業(yè)化跨入中期階段,城鎮(zhèn)化快速推進(jìn),居民消費(fèi)逐步向發(fā)展型升級(jí),發(fā)展?jié)摿薮?廣西完全有條件在新的起點(diǎn)上實(shí)現(xiàn)新跨越。 本論文研究的對(duì)象為廣西服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展,論文以服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展為研究主線(xiàn),分析廣西服務(wù)業(yè)整體發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀以及服務(wù)業(yè)自身內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)的發(fā)展特征;在借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外特別是國(guó)內(nèi)服務(wù)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用最新統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),分析廣西服務(wù)業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位,服務(wù)業(yè)同其他產(chǎn)業(yè)的聯(lián)系以及服務(wù)業(yè)內(nèi)部各行業(yè)之間的聯(lián)系,從理論上探討廣西服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)象背后的原因,有利于從深層次上揭示廣西服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的內(nèi)在規(guī)律,研究具有一定的理論價(jià)值。 本文在2002年、2007年廣西投入產(chǎn)出表的基礎(chǔ)之上,通過(guò)建立以服務(wù)業(yè)為產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén)的新的廣西服務(wù)業(yè)投入產(chǎn)出表,并利用服務(wù)業(yè)投入產(chǎn)出表建立投入產(chǎn)出模型,從服務(wù)業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)和產(chǎn)業(yè)波及效應(yīng)方面進(jìn)行了闡述研究,主要依據(jù)服務(wù)業(yè)直接和間接消耗系數(shù)、影響力與影響力系數(shù)、感應(yīng)度與感應(yīng)度系數(shù)以及服務(wù)業(yè)行業(yè)總產(chǎn)出等指標(biāo)對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)及其內(nèi)部各行業(yè)在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)體系中的作用和地位進(jìn)行分析,初步分析廣西服務(wù)業(yè)的一些行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的特性。并在結(jié)合投入產(chǎn)出分析的基礎(chǔ)上總結(jié)出影響廣西服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的影響因素,包括經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平、工業(yè)發(fā)展水平、交通運(yùn)輸及倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)業(yè)和金融業(yè),服務(wù)業(yè)作為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的產(chǎn)業(yè)部門(mén),與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)其他產(chǎn)業(yè)存在著緊密的聯(lián)系,正確認(rèn)識(shí)服務(wù)的產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)和波及效果是制定服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展對(duì)策的基礎(chǔ),有利于服務(wù)業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 在理論分析框架下提出研究假說(shuō)及構(gòu)建計(jì)量模型,然后運(yùn)用VAR模型對(duì)影響廣西服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的影響因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,得出以下結(jié)論：廣西服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)存在較強(qiáng)的相關(guān)關(guān)系。盡管各自的增長(zhǎng)是非穩(wěn)定的,但從長(zhǎng)期看,它們之間卻構(gòu)成了長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系,只是這種均衡關(guān)系對(duì)當(dāng)期非均衡誤差調(diào)整的自身修正能力不強(qiáng)。在短期內(nèi),服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的變動(dòng)影響顯著；Granger因果關(guān)系分析表明：服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的Granger原因,而經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平卻不是服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展變化的Granger原因；協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和誤差修正模型表明,廣西服務(wù)業(yè)和各個(gè)影響因素之間存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系。在短期內(nèi)它們之間會(huì)出現(xiàn)失衡,但是當(dāng)出現(xiàn)失衡時(shí)系統(tǒng)會(huì)自動(dòng)進(jìn)行調(diào)整使其重新回到均衡狀態(tài)。說(shuō)明從整體上看它們之間的發(fā)展是協(xié)調(diào)的健康的;由脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解可知,廣西的服務(wù)業(yè)與各個(gè)影響因素之間又是相互影響、相互作用的。其中,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)的影響最大,超過(guò)了經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平對(duì)自身的影響。金融業(yè)對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)的影響和交通運(yùn)輸倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)郵政業(yè)對(duì)服務(wù)業(yè)的影響都高于對(duì)自身的影響。
[Abstract]:The employment structure of Guangxi has changed rapidly since the reform and opening up , especially in the period of " Eighth Five - Year Plan " and " Ninth Five - Year Plan " . In the early 1980s , the labor employment structure of Guangxi has changed obviously , but the proportion of agricultural labor force decreased from 83 % to 77 % in the early 1980s .
The proportion of industrial labour force rose from 9.8 % to 11.5 % , an increase of 1.7 percentage points . From this it was seen that the labour force in the service sector was much higher than that of the industry . By 2010 , the labor force in the service industry was 38 % of the workforce , almost comparable to the national level .

At present and in the coming period , Guangxi will enter the new stage of spanning development . Facing the great development opportunities , the development of peace , development and cooperation is still the trend of the times , economic globalization and regional economic integration in - depth development , scientific and technological innovation accelerates and develops new breakthroughs , the international division of labor is accelerated , the overall strategy of regional coordination development is further improved , and the development of China - ASEAN Free Trade Area is still in a favorable domestic macro - environment . The development of China - ASEAN Free Trade Area is still in an important strategic opportunity .

This thesis focuses on the development of the service industry in Guangxi . The paper focuses on the development of service industry as the main line , analyzes the present situation of the whole development of the service industry in Guangxi and the development characteristics of the internal structure of the service industry . Based on the domestic and foreign countries , especially the domestic service economy theory , the paper analyzes the reasons behind the development of the service industry in Guangxi , and helps to reveal the internal law of the development of the service industry from the deep level .

Based on the input - output table of Guangxi in 2002 and 2007 , this paper analyzes the role and position of the service industry and its internal industries in the national economy system through the establishment of a new input - output table of service industry in Guangxi .

In the framework of the theory analysis , it is proposed to study the hypothesis and build the measurement model , and then use the VAR model to study the factors that affect the development of the service industry in Guangxi .
The causality analysis shows that the development of service industry is the causality of economic development , but the level of economic development is not the causality of the change of service industry .
The co - integration test and error correction model show that there is a long - term stable equilibrium relationship between the service industry and the influencing factors in Guangxi . In the short term , there will be an imbalance between them , but when the imbalance occurs , the system will automatically adjust to return to the equilibrium state .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F719

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