本文選題：生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè) + Panel�。� 參考：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：近十幾年來,全球產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生了重大變化。服務(wù)業(yè)蓬勃發(fā)展,逐漸成為各國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)。在服務(wù)業(yè)內(nèi)部,生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)具有突出的地位,其發(fā)展引起了眾多關(guān)注。改革開放以來,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)依靠資源投入和出口需求驅(qū)動(dòng)的粗放型增長(zhǎng)取得了舉世矚目的成就,同時(shí)也付出了資源大量消耗、污染日趨嚴(yán)重的代價(jià)。為了保證經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展,必須實(shí)現(xiàn)向技術(shù)進(jìn)步和效率提高驅(qū)動(dòng)的集約型增長(zhǎng)的轉(zhuǎn)型。轉(zhuǎn)型期的重要內(nèi)容就是服務(wù)業(yè)尤其是生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展。發(fā)展生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)于提升產(chǎn)業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力、優(yōu)化經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)、降低社會(huì)成本、提高經(jīng)濟(jì)效率具有重要的作用。大力發(fā)展服務(wù)業(yè)特別是生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)已經(jīng)成為我國(guó)各級(jí)政府的共識(shí)。目前我國(guó)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的比重較小,而且區(qū)域間差異較大。因此研究生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的規(guī)律具有重要意義。 要促進(jìn)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展,必須營(yíng)造良好的制度環(huán)境。首先需要了解我國(guó)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀如何,發(fā)展處于什么階段,發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)是什么,有哪些因素影響其發(fā)展。本文從上述幾個(gè)方面進(jìn)行了研究,旨在為我國(guó)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展提供有價(jià)值的參考意見。本文的主要研究工作和結(jié)論如下： 一、從總量、結(jié)構(gòu)、效率和產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)四個(gè)角度對(duì)我國(guó)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)目前的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的分析。從產(chǎn)出情況看,雖然生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)名義增加值增長(zhǎng)較快,但是實(shí)際產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)緩慢。生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的固定資產(chǎn)投資占服務(wù)業(yè)總投資的2/3左右,而產(chǎn)出和就業(yè)只占1/3左右。在生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)內(nèi)部,交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)的增加值比重和就業(yè)比重都是最大的。在全社會(huì)固定資產(chǎn)投資方面,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)投資占據(jù)了生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)總投資的60%以上。相對(duì)勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率分析表明,不管是以服務(wù)業(yè)為整體還是以國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)為整體,生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)各分行業(yè)的相對(duì)勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率都大于1,說明生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的生產(chǎn)率相對(duì)于服務(wù)業(yè)以及國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)其他行業(yè)來說,超出了平均水平。產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)分析顯示,我國(guó)制造業(yè)的中間投入中直接來自生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的并不占多數(shù),說明我國(guó)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)并未有效地發(fā)揮為制造業(yè)提供服務(wù)的作用。 二、從理論上探索了推動(dòng)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)產(chǎn)生和發(fā)展的內(nèi)因和外因,提出生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展階段理論。以交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)、金融業(yè)和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的代表,考察了我國(guó)各省區(qū)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展水平,然后劃分區(qū)域,結(jié)合各行業(yè)在各區(qū)域的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,對(duì)其目前的發(fā)展階段進(jìn)行初步界定。建立Panel Data模型,分析了投資和就業(yè)對(duì)行業(yè)發(fā)展的影響,以驗(yàn)證行業(yè)發(fā)展階段的判定結(jié)論。研究認(rèn)為：交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)在東部和中部處于發(fā)展期,在西部處于萌芽期；金融業(yè)在東部處于發(fā)展期,中部和西部處于萌芽期；房地產(chǎn)業(yè)在東部進(jìn)入成熟期,在中部和西部處于發(fā)展期。 三、結(jié)合微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)理論,從勞動(dòng)需求和勞動(dòng)供給的角度分析了技術(shù)水平、人力資本、工資水平、產(chǎn)出水平和城市化水平對(duì)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)的影響。利用Panel Data模型對(duì)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)的影響因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平和城市化水平的提高可以促進(jìn)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè),生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)上期產(chǎn)出對(duì)當(dāng)期就業(yè)具有正向的影響,而人力資本水平和工資水平對(duì)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)具有負(fù)向影響。 四、利用Engle和Granger兩步法建立長(zhǎng)期均衡模型和誤差修正模型,對(duì)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)在我國(guó)東部、中部和西部的產(chǎn)出的影響因素分別建立模型進(jìn)行分析。考察的影響因素為制造業(yè)規(guī)模、固定資產(chǎn)投資、就業(yè)水平、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)水平和城市化水平。分析表明,東部的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)水平和城市化水平在長(zhǎng)期和短期都對(duì)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展起到了促進(jìn)作用,而制造業(yè)在長(zhǎng)期對(duì)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)產(chǎn)生負(fù)向影響。中部地區(qū)城市化水平在長(zhǎng)期和短期對(duì)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的影響都為負(fù)值。西部各因素的長(zhǎng)期影響除了制造業(yè)為負(fù)以外,其他都為正；短期中制造業(yè)和投資的影響顯著為正,城市化影響顯著為負(fù)。 五、利用空間經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的集聚指標(biāo)衡量了我國(guó)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)總體和各分行業(yè)的集聚狀況,辨析每一行業(yè)的優(yōu)勢(shì)地區(qū)和各地區(qū)的優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)。各行業(yè)集聚水平比較而言,交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)和金融業(yè)的集聚水平較低,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)、信息服務(wù)業(yè)、商務(wù)服務(wù)業(yè)和科技服務(wù)業(yè)的集聚水平略高。從集聚的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)來看,生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)各行業(yè)的集聚水平基本上都是逐年上升的。另外,從向心力和離心力兩個(gè)角度對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)集聚的影響因素進(jìn)行了分析,提出理論假說,然后利用Panel Data模型對(duì)假說進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明：目前我國(guó)的制造業(yè)份額、創(chuàng)新密度、外向度、地理位置和失業(yè)率都是生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚的向心力,而路網(wǎng)密度是離心力。 六、將我國(guó)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r與美國(guó)、日本、德國(guó)、法國(guó)、英國(guó)五個(gè)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和巴西、俄羅斯、印度、南非四個(gè)金磚國(guó)家進(jìn)行了比較分析。與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家相比,我國(guó)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的產(chǎn)值比重和就業(yè)比重基本上都占其水平的一半,差距主要在房地產(chǎn)業(yè)。在發(fā)展趨勢(shì)上,我國(guó)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)產(chǎn)值占增加值的比重近十幾年來不升反降,這一趨勢(shì)與五個(gè)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家相反,但是與巴西、俄羅斯、南非等金磚國(guó)家相似。與金磚國(guó)家的比較分析可知,我國(guó)生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)在發(fā)展階段相似的國(guó)家中并不落后。
[Abstract]:In the last decade , the global industrial structure has changed greatly . The service industry has been booming , gradually becoming the leading industry of national economy . In the service industry , the productive service industry has become the dominant industry . In order to ensure the sustainable development of economy , the important content of the transformation is the development of the service industry , especially the productive service industry .

In order to promote the development of productive service industry , it is necessary to create a good system environment . First , we need to know the present situation of the development of productive service industry in China , what kind of development trend is , what factors influence its development . In this paper , we have carried out the research from the above aspects , aiming at providing valuable reference for the development of productive service industry in China . The main research work and conclusion are as follows :

This paper analyzes the present situation of productive service industry from four angles , such as total quantity , structure , efficiency and industry . From the perspective of output , the real output growth is slow . The investment of fixed assets in productive service industry accounts for about 2 / 3 of the total investment of the service industry . The relative labor productivity analysis shows that the productivity of the productive service industry is more than the average of the service industry and the other industries of the national economy .

Based on the theory , the paper explores the internal and external factors that promote the production and development of productive service industry , and puts forward the developing stage theory of productive service industry .
The financial industry is in the development stage in the east , the middle part and the west are in the germination period ;
The real estate industry enters the mature period in the east , and is in the development period in the middle and west .

Based on the micro - economic theory , the influence of technology level , human capital , salary level , output level and urbanization level on the employment of productive service industry is analyzed from the angle of labor demand and labor supply . The results show that the improvement of economic development level and urbanization level can promote the employment of productive service industry .

The results show that the regional economic level and urbanization level play a positive role in the development of productive service industry in both the long term and the short term .
The impact of manufacturing and investment in the short - term is obviously positive , and the effect of urbanization is negative .

5 . The agglomeration of productive service industry in China is measured by means of the cluster index of space economics , and the advantages of each industry and the dominant industries in each region are analyzed . The influence factors of the industry agglomeration are analyzed by means of two angles : centripetal force and centrifugal force . The results show that the market share , innovation density , extroversion , geographical location and unemployment rate are the centripetal force of productive service industry , and the density of road network is centrifugal force .

6 . The development of productive service industry in China is compared with that of the USA , Japan , Germany , France , the five developed countries of the United States and Brazil , Russia , India and South Africa . Compared with the developed countries , the proportion of the output value and the employment proportion of the productive service industry in China are basically half of their level , the gap is mainly in the real estate industry . In the developing trend , China ' s productive service industry value is similar to those of the five developed countries . However , compared with those in Brazil , Russia and South Africa , China ' s productive service industry is not backward in the similar countries in the development stage .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F719

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