【摘要】：地價(jià)是調(diào)節(jié)土地資源配置的重要手段,是土地市場(chǎng)的核心。沈陽(yáng)市渾南新區(qū)是沈陽(yáng)市目前重點(diǎn)建設(shè)發(fā)展區(qū)域,隨著該地區(qū)交通及其他相關(guān)城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的不斷完善,出現(xiàn)了具有其自身特點(diǎn)的地價(jià)變化規(guī)律,尤以住宅用地價(jià)格最為明顯。由于住宅地價(jià)作為城市地價(jià)的一個(gè)重要組成部分,切實(shí)關(guān)系到城市居民的民生問題。因此,通過開展住宅用地平均價(jià)格水平、住宅地價(jià)變化影響因素及變化趨勢(shì)的研究,以期為調(diào)節(jié)研究區(qū)城市土地的供需矛盾、政府制定地產(chǎn)管理政策、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)監(jiān)測(cè)和宏觀調(diào)控提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。 本文以城市地租地價(jià)理論、土地供求理論、區(qū)位理論等相關(guān)理論和已有文獻(xiàn)為基礎(chǔ),在充分研究了渾南新區(qū)城市結(jié)構(gòu)變遷和土地價(jià)格沿革的基礎(chǔ)上,通過區(qū)段劃分、地價(jià)樣點(diǎn)采集等計(jì)算得到了2008年-2012年住宅平均地價(jià)和地價(jià)指數(shù),并從研究區(qū)住宅地價(jià)水平變化趨勢(shì)、住宅地價(jià)與房?jī)r(jià)對(duì)比、住宅地價(jià)與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)狀況三個(gè)方面開展了研究區(qū)住宅地價(jià)變化特征分析；選取商品住宅價(jià)格增長(zhǎng)率、GDP增長(zhǎng)率、物價(jià)指數(shù)增長(zhǎng)率、固定資產(chǎn)投資增長(zhǎng)率、房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資增長(zhǎng)率為自變量,建立多元線性回歸模型,探討研究區(qū)2008-2012年住宅地價(jià)變化的主要影響因素；運(yùn)用GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)模型對(duì)研究區(qū)2013年到2014年的住宅用地價(jià)格指數(shù)進(jìn)行了科學(xué)預(yù)測(cè),得到了較為準(zhǔn)確的住宅地價(jià)水平預(yù)測(cè)值。研究結(jié)果表明：研究區(qū)住宅用地價(jià)格上漲主要影響因素分別為商品住宅價(jià)格的上漲和良好的區(qū)域宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境,但2010年后住宅地價(jià)的上漲受國(guó)家政策調(diào)控影響較大,幅度減緩；研究區(qū)住宅用地價(jià)格指數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)的實(shí)證研究表明,GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)模型在預(yù)測(cè)地價(jià)水平方面有良好的應(yīng)用潛力,模型預(yù)測(cè)的結(jié)果比較符合渾南新區(qū)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r及土地市場(chǎng)變化規(guī)律。 為保證研究區(qū)住宅用地價(jià)格的健康發(fā)展,應(yīng)積極采用動(dòng)態(tài)更新機(jī)制按時(shí)更新調(diào)整區(qū)片基準(zhǔn)地價(jià)、根據(jù)不同地區(qū)實(shí)際情況制定差別化地價(jià),同時(shí)加大力度查處閑置用地,提高居住用地開發(fā)利用效率,進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)土地供應(yīng)中居住用地供應(yīng)的調(diào)控力度,保障住宅用地的合理供給。
[Abstract]:Land price is an important means to adjust the allocation of land resources and the core of land market. Hunnan New District of Shenyang is the key construction and development area of Shenyang at present. With the continuous improvement of traffic and other related urban infrastructure in this area, the law of land price change with its own characteristics appears, especially the price of residential land is the most obvious. As an important part of urban land price, residential land price is closely related to the livelihood of urban residents. Therefore, through the research on the average price level of residential land, the influencing factors of residential land price change and the trend of change, in order to adjust the contradiction between supply and demand of urban land in the study area, the government formulates the real estate management policy. Real estate market dynamic monitoring and macro-control to provide scientific basis. Based on the theory of urban land rent and land price, land supply and demand theory, location theory and other relevant theories and existing literature, this paper studies the urban structure changes and land price evolution of Hunnan New District, and divides the area by section. The average land price and land price index from 2008 to 2012 are calculated by collecting sample points of land price, and the change trend of residential land price level in the study area is analyzed, and the comparison of housing land price and house price is made. The change characteristics of residential land price in the study area are analyzed in three aspects: the coordination of residential land price and social economic environment; Taking the growth rate of commodity housing price, GDP growth rate, price index growth rate, fixed assets investment growth rate and real estate development investment growth rate as independent variables, a multivariate linear regression model is established. To explore the main influencing factors of the change of residential land price in the study area from 2008 to 2012; Based on the GM (1 / 1) model, this paper makes a scientific prediction of the residential land price index from 2013 to 2014 in the study area, and obtains a more accurate prediction value of the residential land price level. The results show that: the main influencing factors of residential land price increase in the study area are the rise of commodity housing price and the good regional macroeconomic environment, but the increase of residential land price after 2010 is greatly affected by the national policy, and the range is slowed down; The empirical study of residential land price index prediction in the study area shows that, GM (1 / 1) forecasting model has good application potential in predicting land price level. The predicted results of the model are in accordance with the social and economic development and the law of land market change in Hunnan New area. In order to ensure the healthy development of residential land price in the study area, we should adopt dynamic renewal mechanism to update and adjust the standard land price on time, make the differential land price according to the actual situation of different regions, and increase the investigation and treatment of idle land. To improve the efficiency of residential land development and utilization, to further strengthen the regulation and control of residential land supply, to ensure the reasonable supply of residential land.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：沈陽(yáng)農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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