本文關(guān)鍵詞： 節(jié)能住宅 投資決策 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論 多層次模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法　出處：《蘭州交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：伴隨著人類社會(huì)的不斷發(fā)展，地球作為人類賴以生存的家園，資源逐漸被消耗，環(huán)境逐漸被破壞。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)：人類從自然界獲取資源的50%以上是用來(lái)建造各種建筑物及其附屬設(shè)施的，而建筑物建造、使用、拆除過(guò)程中所造成的污染占環(huán)境總體污染的34%。這表明，建筑業(yè)作為國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)，已成為污染環(huán)境的大戶，而住宅建筑又占據(jù)了總建筑的2/3，不言而喻，住宅建筑又成為了污染環(huán)境、破壞生態(tài)平衡的主力軍。近二十年來(lái)，伴隨著節(jié)能住宅建筑技術(shù)的發(fā)展，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家充分利用地?zé)崮堋⑻?yáng)能和風(fēng)能等可再生能源，已將住宅建筑的能耗在傳統(tǒng)能耗基礎(chǔ)上降低了70%～80%；因此，建筑業(yè)發(fā)展節(jié)能建筑，走節(jié)能和可持續(xù)發(fā)展之路，是我國(guó)建設(shè)資源節(jié)約型和環(huán)境友好型社會(huì)及美麗中國(guó)的必由之路。但目前開發(fā)商對(duì)節(jié)能住宅的開發(fā)意愿并不強(qiáng)烈。基于此，論文擬從開發(fā)商的角度出發(fā)，分析影響節(jié)能住宅投資決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素，從而找出問(wèn)題的癥結(jié)所在并提出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策與建議，以此來(lái)推動(dòng)我國(guó)節(jié)能住宅市場(chǎng)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。本文對(duì)我國(guó)節(jié)能住宅投資決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理問(wèn)題進(jìn)行研究，并得出如下結(jié)論。 首先，通過(guò)采用專家調(diào)查法和閱讀國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)，識(shí)別出節(jié)能住宅投資決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和成本風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要有節(jié)能技術(shù)服務(wù)體系設(shè)計(jì)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的完善程度，符合市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律的專項(xiàng)節(jié)能激勵(lì)與補(bǔ)貼制度的完善程度，政府關(guān)于節(jié)能住宅宣傳和教育方面政策完善程度，節(jié)能投資擔(dān)保機(jī)制的完善程度四方面；管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括從事節(jié)能咨詢服務(wù)的專業(yè)隊(duì)伍數(shù)量，管理者節(jié)能管理知識(shí)的掌握程度，管理機(jī)構(gòu)不健全、監(jiān)督不到位導(dǎo)致節(jié)能項(xiàng)目質(zhì)量達(dá)標(biāo)情況；技術(shù)方面包括門窗節(jié)能技術(shù)的先進(jìn)性、可行性和可靠性，外圍護(hù)結(jié)構(gòu)節(jié)能技術(shù)的先進(jìn)性、可行性和可靠性；成本方面包括節(jié)能技術(shù)、節(jié)能產(chǎn)品的投入情況，，成本增加導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)買率情況。根據(jù)識(shí)別出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素建立了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的指標(biāo)體系。 其次，通過(guò)建立的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系對(duì)其進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素排序和整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)。主要采用專家訪談法和AHP法得出專家對(duì)其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的一個(gè)專業(yè)打分并計(jì)算出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的權(quán)重，然后進(jìn)行了主次風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相對(duì)應(yīng)排序，最后采用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)節(jié)能住宅投資決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了一個(gè)整體的評(píng)價(jià)，得出最后的結(jié)果。 最后，提出了針對(duì)節(jié)能住宅投資決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的應(yīng)對(duì)措施。針對(duì)節(jié)能技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)該從生產(chǎn)、銷售、施工等各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)嚴(yán)格按標(biāo)準(zhǔn)進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)和施工，應(yīng)該增強(qiáng)應(yīng)用技術(shù)理論研究、豐富經(jīng)驗(yàn)、實(shí)驗(yàn)和方法；提高開發(fā)商的積極態(tài)度，杜絕質(zhì)次價(jià)低的產(chǎn)品。針對(duì)節(jié)能成本風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面建議節(jié)能一次做到位，讓政府、房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商和購(gòu)房者真正了解節(jié)能建筑，使其節(jié)能概念延續(xù)于建筑的整個(gè)生命周期。 綜上所述，本文的研究，為國(guó)內(nèi)的開發(fā)商提供了一個(gè)可操作的，具有實(shí)際意義節(jié)能住宅投資決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理體系，可以幫助開發(fā)商在對(duì)投資決策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行管理的時(shí)候，有針對(duì)性的提高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析評(píng)價(jià)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)的能力。因此，本文的研究結(jié)果對(duì)推動(dòng)國(guó)內(nèi)節(jié)能住宅的發(fā)展具有一定的指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of human society, earth is home to human survival, resource depletion, environment is destroyed gradually. According to the statistics: more than 50% human resources from nature is used to build various buildings and ancillary facilities, and building construction, use, the demolition caused by pollution in the process of accounting for the overall pollution of the environment 34%. this shows that the construction industry as a pillar industry of the national economy, has become a major environmental pollution, and residential buildings occupy the total construction of 2/3, it is self-evident, residential construction has become the main force of environmental pollution, destruction of ecological balance. In the past twenty years, with the development of residential building energy-saving technology developed. The country full use of geothermal energy, renewable energy such as solar and wind energy, the energy consumption of residential building is reduced by 70% ~ 80% in the traditional energy consumption on the basis; therefore, the development of the construction industry section Can buildings, energy saving and walk the road of sustainable development, China's construction of a resource-saving and environment-friendly society and the beautiful Chinese. But now the only way which must be passed the developers of energy-efficient residential development will not be strong. Based on this, this thesis from the perspective of developers, effects and analysis of risk factors of residential investment decision-making, so as to find out the problem the crux of the problem and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, in order to promote the sustainable development of China's residential market. This paper focuses on the research of investment decision risk management problem of our country's energy saving house, and draws the following conclusions.
First of all, through the expert investigation method and reading related literature at home and abroad, identify residential investment decision-making risk including policy risk, management risk, technology risk and cost risk. The degree of perfection of the policy risk are mainly designed to standard energy-saving technical service system, improve the level of the special energy-saving incentive accords with the law of market economy and government subsidy system. About the residential energy conservation publicity and education policy perfection, such investment guarantee mechanism in four aspects; the risk management includes the number of professionals engaged in energy-saving management consulting services, master degree of energy management knowledge, management mechanism is not perfect, supervision is not in place resulting in the quality standards of energy-saving projects; advanced technology including energy-saving doors and windows the feasibility and reliability of the advanced periphery structure of energy-saving technology, the feasibility and reliability of the form; This aspect includes energy saving technology, the input of energy saving products, and the purchase rate of consumers caused by the increase of cost. According to the identified risk factors, the index system of risk assessment is established.
Secondly, through the risk evaluation index system for the risk factors and the risk assessment of the overall ranking. The main draw a professional experts on the risk and calculate the risk weights by expert interview method and AHP method, the corresponding sorting and then proceed to the primary and secondary risk, at the end of the residential investment decision risk an overall evaluation by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, to obtain the final results.
Finally, put forward the corresponding measures for energy conservation in residential investment decision-making risk. According to the energy saving technology risk should be from the production, sales, construction and other links strictly according to the standard of production and construction, should strengthen theoretical research, application technology and rich experience, experiment and method; improve the positive attitude of the developers, to eliminate the second lowest quality for products. Energy cost risk such a place, let the government, real estate developers and buyers of real understanding of the concept of building energy saving, energy-saving continuation in the construction of the entire life cycle.
In summary, this research, for domestic developers to provide a workable, practical energy-saving residential investment risk management system, can help developers in the investment risk management, to improve the ability of risk analysis evaluation and risk response. Therefore, the results of this study have certain guiding significance to promote the domestic development of energy saving building.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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