【摘要】：建筑工程具有周期長(zhǎng)、投資大、施工技術(shù)復(fù)雜、參與方多、環(huán)境干擾多等特點(diǎn),工程項(xiàng)目不可避免地面臨諸多不確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn),如不加以防范,極有可能影響項(xiàng)目的順利建設(shè)及運(yùn)營(yíng),甚至?xí)斐刹豢晒懒康膿p失。提前識(shí)別存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),通過(guò)認(rèn)真分析,尋求一種科學(xué)的管理方法,付出最小成木將項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降至最低限,通過(guò)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究,使項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失得到有效規(guī)避和降低,確保項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃順利完成,以獲取工程項(xiàng)目預(yù)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)及環(huán)境效益,意義重大。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理作為一項(xiàng)系統(tǒng)的管理過(guò)程和管理活動(dòng),是工程項(xiàng)目管理中必不可少的重要環(huán)節(jié)。加強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的意義在于通過(guò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)等環(huán)節(jié),最大程度明確工程項(xiàng)目存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的程度,對(duì)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)及項(xiàng)目運(yùn)營(yíng)中潛在的不確定性風(fēng)險(xiǎn),有針對(duì)性地尋求應(yīng)對(duì)措施進(jìn)行有效管控,從而達(dá)到將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降至最低的目的。本研究以山東半島藍(lán)色經(jīng)濟(jì)工程研究院建設(shè)項(xiàng)目為研究對(duì)象,運(yùn)用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的理論和方法,對(duì)該立項(xiàng)工程項(xiàng)目存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別、分析、評(píng)估,從而制訂出規(guī)避和控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的應(yīng)對(duì)措施,使該項(xiàng)目潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)得到有效規(guī)避,將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失降至最低。首先在研讀相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目領(lǐng)域風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究的理論和方法進(jìn)行了較系統(tǒng)的闡述。又結(jié)合山東半島藍(lán)色經(jīng)濟(jì)工程研究院建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的實(shí)際情況,依據(jù)該實(shí)體工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的研究目標(biāo),擬定了研究框架,識(shí)別和分析了項(xiàng)目籌建和施工中可能存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。并利用所構(gòu)建的綜合評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,運(yùn)用層次分析法、流程圖法、分解分析法、核查表法、事故樹(shù)分析法等研究方法,評(píng)估了山東半島藍(lán)色經(jīng)濟(jì)工程研究院建設(shè)項(xiàng)目投資決策階段、項(xiàng)目前期階段、項(xiàng)目建設(shè)階段及項(xiàng)目管理階段存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),重點(diǎn)從融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)三個(gè)方面對(duì)工程項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了單項(xiàng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)和總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)。先期對(duì)山東半島藍(lán)色經(jīng)濟(jì)工程研究院建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行調(diào)查整理,進(jìn)而對(duì)該項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行定量評(píng)估,以確定項(xiàng)目存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)級(jí)別,為工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制奠定基礎(chǔ)。研究結(jié)果顯示,該項(xiàng)目融資、管理、質(zhì)量以及整個(gè)工程方面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值分別為51.3、52.9、42.9和48.7,從而得出,山東半島藍(lán)色經(jīng)濟(jì)工程研究院建設(shè)項(xiàng)目存在中等風(fēng)險(xiǎn),處于可規(guī)避和控制范圍。應(yīng)針對(duì)不同階段,加強(qiáng)相關(guān)政策分析,采取多種方式組合,化解土地拆遷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；開(kāi)發(fā)多元融資,化解融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：加強(qiáng)項(xiàng)目管理,控制成本風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：加強(qiáng)項(xiàng)目監(jiān)管,掌控質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。通過(guò)一系列措施,把項(xiàng)目各方面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降低到較低和低等程度內(nèi),特別要重視項(xiàng)目管理和融資風(fēng)險(xiǎn),以防止其對(duì)整個(gè)工程建設(shè)的影響。
[Abstract]:Construction projects have the characteristics of long period, large investment, complex construction technology, more participants, more environmental interference, and so on. The engineering projects inevitably face many uncertain risks, such as not to prevent them. It is very likely to affect the smooth construction and operation of the project, and even cause incalculable losses. Identify the existing risks in advance, through careful analysis, seek a scientific management method, pay the minimum to reduce the project risk to the lowest limit, through the project risk management research, the project risk loss can be effectively avoided and reduced. It is of great significance to ensure the smooth completion of the project plan to achieve the expected economic, social and environmental benefits of the project. Risk management, as a systematic management process and management activity, is an essential and important link in engineering project management. The significance of strengthening risk management lies in making clear to the maximum extent the risk and the degree of risk existing in the project through risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation, and the potential uncertainty risk in the construction and operation of the project. The aim is to minimize risk by seeking effective control measures. This study takes the construction project of the Blue Economic Engineering Research Institute of Shandong Peninsula as the research object, and applies the theory and method of risk management to identify, analyze and evaluate the risks existing in the project. The countermeasures to avoid and control the risk are worked out so that the potential risk of the project can be effectively circumvented and the risk loss will be reduced to the minimum. Firstly, the theory and method of risk management in the field of engineering project are systematically expounded on the basis of reading relevant documents. Combined with the actual situation of the construction project of Blue Economic Engineering Research Institute of Shandong Peninsula, according to the research goal of risk management of the entity engineering project, the research framework is drawn up, and the possible risks in the preparation and construction of the project are identified and analyzed. And using the comprehensive evaluation index system, using analytic hierarchy process, flow chart, decomposition analysis, verification table method, accident tree analysis and other research methods, The paper evaluates the investment decision stage, the early stage of the project, the project construction stage and the project management stage of the Blue Economic Engineering Research Institute of Shandong Peninsula, with emphasis on the financing risk. The single risk evaluation and overall risk evaluation of engineering project are carried out in three aspects of management risk and quality risk. The related data of the construction project risk of Blue Economic Engineering Research Institute of Shandong Peninsula were investigated in advance, and then the risk of the project was evaluated quantitatively to determine the risk level of the project and lay the foundation for the risk control of the project. The results show that the risk values of the project in financing, management, quality and the whole project are 51.3 / 52.9 / 42.9 and 48.7, respectively. It is concluded that the construction project of the Blue Economic Engineering Research Institute of Shandong Peninsula has moderate risk and is within the scope of avoidance and control. In view of different stages, we should strengthen the analysis of relevant policies, adopt a variety of ways to combine to resolve the risk of land demolition and relocation, develop multiple financing, resolve financing risks, strengthen project management, control cost risks, strengthen project supervision and control quality risks. Through a series of measures, the risks in all aspects of the project should be reduced to a lower and lower degree, and special attention should be paid to project management and financing risks in order to prevent their impact on the whole project construction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TU71

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