本文選題：赴日旅游需求 + 決定因素��； 參考：《北京外國語大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來中國赴日旅游在中日兩國都成為了熱門話題。2010年以來中國赴日旅游人次急劇增加。到2015年為止,中國已經(jīng)超過韓國成為最大的赴日旅游客源地。同時,從中國游客在日本大量的購物支出中誕生的"爆買"一詞也成為了日本2015年的年度流行語�？梢娭袊叭章糜我呀�(jīng)成為一個無法忽視的課題。但是,赴日旅游方面的先行研究較少,且集中于對日本觀光政策的總結(jié),以及對旅游數(shù)據(jù)的描述,缺少定量研究。本文旨在通過對宏觀數(shù)據(jù)的回歸分析,找出赴日旅游需求的決定因素,希望可以填補在赴日旅游的研究中一部分的空白。本文通過日本國家旅游局(JNTO)及日本國土交通省觀光局所發(fā)布的旅游數(shù)據(jù)和報告分析了中國赴日旅游的動向和特征,總結(jié)中國赴日旅游特征如下:中國游客赴日旅游集中在春節(jié),賞櫻季節(jié)和暑假。全體赴日游客來看,主要目的在于享受日本的食物,體驗日本文化以及游覽風(fēng)景名勝。而中國游客赴日旅游最大的目的在于購物,且中國游客人均購物費用是全體赴日游客人均購物費用的兩倍。從客源地來看,中國赴日游客主要來自于北京,上海,廣東,江蘇等東南沿海較為富裕的地區(qū)。從客源層來看,中國赴日游客主要是20到40歲之間的年輕群體,且女性較多。旅游線路以黃金路線(東京,箱根,富士山,名古屋,京都,大阪)為主,同時沖繩、北海道在中國游客中也較受歡迎。雖然中國赴日游客多數(shù)為第一次赴日旅游,但是有過赴日旅游經(jīng)驗的"回頭客"每年都在增加。同時,本文還使用城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入,匯率,中日韓三國的相對價格,宣傳費用等變量對日漸增長的赴日旅游需求進(jìn)行了回歸分析。結(jié)論如下:匯率對中國赴日旅游需求的影響最大,其次為收入變量即城鎮(zhèn)居民人均可支配收入。這與中國游客赴日旅游主要目的為購物相符。同時,由于中國赴韓游客的7成以上目的在于購物,本文將赴韓旅游作為赴日旅游的"代替品變量"加入模型,但并沒有獲得統(tǒng)計學(xué)上有意義的結(jié)果。代表制度因素的兩個變量——宣傳費用及放寬簽證條件對赴日旅游需求都有正面的影響。在分析制度因素的時候,發(fā)現(xiàn)赴日旅游中可能存在明顯的口碑效應(yīng)。最后,本文加入了 2003年"非典""、2008年世界金融危機、2011年東日本大地震、2012年購買釣魚島(日本稱尖閣諸島)事件四個虛擬變量來控制外部沖擊對赴日旅游的影響。這四個外部沖擊對赴日旅游均有負(fù)面影響。其中,2008年世界金融危機對赴日旅游影響并不大,而2012年的購買釣魚島事件在中國掀起了很大的反日情緒,赴日旅游由此受到了沖擊。由此可見,中國赴日旅游受經(jīng)濟(jì)因素影響的同時,中日關(guān)系等政治因素的影響也不容忽視。而本文的不足點在于側(cè)重經(jīng)濟(jì)因素的影響,無法反映出文化因素對于旅游需求的影響。在將來的研究中,還需要通過定性分析引入一些無法反應(yīng)在宏觀數(shù)據(jù)上的影響因素。
[Abstract]:Chinese travel to Japan has become a hot topic in both countries in recent years, with a sharp increase in Chinese travel to Japan since 2010.By 2015, China had overtaken South Korea as the largest tourist destination to Japan.At the same time, the word "boom buying", born from Chinese tourists spending heavily on Japanese shopping, has become Japan's annual buzzword in 2015.It can be seen that China's tourism to Japan has become a problem that can not be ignored.However, the first research on tourism to Japan is less, and it focuses on the summary of Japanese tourism policy and the description of tourism data, which is lack of quantitative research.The purpose of this paper is to find out the determinants of tourism demand in Japan by regression analysis of macro data, hoping to fill the gap in the study of tourism to Japan.This paper analyzes the trends and characteristics of Chinese tourism to Japan through the tourism data and reports issued by Japan National Tourism Administration (JNTO) and the Tourism Bureau of Japan's Ministry of Land and Transportation, and summarizes the characteristics of Chinese tourism to Japan as follows: Chinese tourists travel to Japan mainly during the Spring Festival.Cherry season and summer vacation.The main purpose of all visitors to Japan is to enjoy Japanese food, experience Japanese culture and visit scenic spots.The biggest purpose of Chinese tourists to Japan is shopping, and the average shopping cost of Chinese tourists is twice as much as that of all tourists.From the source of tourists, Chinese tourists to Japan mainly come from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu and other more affluent areas along the southeast coast.From the source level, Chinese tourists to Japan are mainly young people between 20 and 40 years old, and more women.The main routes are gold routes (Tokyo, Hakone, Fuji, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka), and Okinawa and Hokkaido are also popular among Chinese tourists.Although most Chinese tourists to Japan are first-time visitors, the number of "repeat visitors" with experience in Japan is increasing every year.At the same time, using the variables of per capita disposable income of urban residents, exchange rate, relative price of China, Japan and Korea, propaganda cost and so on, the paper makes regression analysis to the increasing demand for tourism to Japan.The conclusions are as follows: the exchange rate has the greatest influence on the tourism demand of China to Japan, followed by the income variable, that is, the per capita disposable income of urban residents.This is consistent with the fact that the main purpose of Chinese tourists to Japan is shopping.At the same time, since more than 70% of Chinese tourists to Korea are aimed at shopping, this paper adds it to the model as a "substitute variable" for tourism to Japan, but does not obtain statistically significant results.The cost of publicity and the relaxation of visa conditions have a positive effect on the demand for travel to Japan.In the analysis of institutional factors, it is found that there may be obvious word-of-mouth effect in tourism to Japan.Finally, this paper adds four virtual variables to control the impact of external shocks on tourism to Japan, including the 2003 SARS, the 2008 world financial crisis, the 2011 East Japan earthquake, and the 2012 purchase of the Diaoyu Islands (the Senkaku Islands in Japan).These four external shocks have a negative impact on travel to Japan.Among them, the 2008 world financial crisis did not have a great impact on tourism to Japan, and the purchase of Diaoyu Islands in 2012 aroused great anti-Japanese sentiment in China.It can be seen that while China's tourism to Japan is influenced by economic factors, the influence of political factors such as Sino-Japanese relations should not be ignored.However, the deficiency of this paper lies in focusing on the influence of economic factors, which can not reflect the influence of cultural factors on tourism demand.In the future research, it is necessary to introduce some influential factors which can not be reflected in macro data through qualitative analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京外國語大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F592

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