本文選題：客戶終生價值　切入點：Pareto/NBD模型　出處：《大連理工大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,客戶終生價值(Customer lifetime Value, CLV)得到越來越廣泛的重視,眾多學者從不同角度,不同領域對客戶終生價值進行了研究,而這些研究的焦點問題主要包括兩類,即對客戶終生價值模型的研究和客戶終生價值的實踐應用價值的探索。 本文首先整理了客戶終生價值的相關研究成果；其次,研究了基于Pareto/NBD模型和Gamma-Gamma模型的客戶終生價值模型,發(fā)現(xiàn)應用該模型預測客戶終生價值時存在的不足和缺點,并找到了導致其效果不佳的根本原因；再次,提出了融入客戶個性化信息的CLV改進模型,將RFM模型的三個指標R、F、M值作為個性化信息以調節(jié)因子的形式加入到原預測公式中,用于改進原模型的缺點；最后,以大連友好商城的實際銷售數(shù)據為樣本,實證檢驗了改進后的模型相對于原模型的優(yōu)越性,并探索分析了該模型對于企業(yè)管理實踐的指導意義。 本研究的價值主要體現(xiàn)在以下兩方面： 在理論方面,提出了融入客戶個性化信息的客戶終生價值模型,不但提升了基于Pareto/NBD模型和Gamma-Gamma模型的客戶終生價值模型的預測效果,還為客戶終生價值模型的未來研究提供了一種新思路,提升了客戶終生價值模型的理論價值。 在操作方法上,以RFM模型中的客戶購買次數(shù)、最近購買時間和購買金額作為個性化信息,以每個客戶的RFM值作為改進模型的調節(jié)因子,改進的方法簡便易操作,同樣適用于改進其他類似的CLV模型。 在管理實踐上,本文以改進后的模型的CLV值作為客戶細分的依據,從整個客戶群中識別出優(yōu)質客戶、劣質客戶,并根據各客戶群的特點給出相應的營銷管理策略,為企業(yè)實施差異化的營銷管理措施,提升客戶關系管理水平提供了寶貴的建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, customer lifetime value (CLV) has been paid more and more attention. Many scholars have studied customer lifetime value from different angles and fields.That is, the study of customer lifetime value model and the practical application of customer lifetime value exploration.In this paper, firstly, the related research results of customer lifetime value are summarized. Secondly, the customer lifetime value model based on Pareto/NBD model and Gamma-Gamma model is studied, and the shortcomings and shortcomings of using this model to predict customer lifetime value are found.And find out the root cause of its poor effect. Thirdly, this paper puts forward the improved CLV model which integrates the customer's personalized information, and adds the three indexes of RFM model as the personalization information to the original prediction formula in the form of adjustment factor.Finally, taking the actual sales data of Dalian Friendship Mall as a sample, this paper empirically tests the superiority of the improved model compared with the original model, and explores the guiding significance of the model for enterprise management practice.The value of this study is mainly reflected in the following two aspects:In theory, a customer lifetime value model is proposed, which integrates customer personalized information, which not only improves the prediction effect of customer lifetime value model based on Pareto/NBD model and Gamma-Gamma model.It also provides a new idea for the future research of customer lifetime value model and promotes the theoretical value of customer lifetime value model.In operation method, the customer purchase times, recent purchase time and purchase amount in the RFM model are taken as personalized information, and the RFM value of each customer is taken as the adjustment factor of the improved model. The improved method is simple and easy to operate.The same applies to improving other similar CLV models.In the management practice, this paper takes the CLV value of the improved model as the basis of customer segmentation, identifies high quality customers and inferior customers from the whole customer group, and gives the corresponding marketing management strategy according to the characteristics of each customer group.It provides valuable suggestions for enterprises to implement differentiated marketing management measures and improve the level of customer relationship management.
【學位授予單位】：大連理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F274

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