【摘要】：金融生態(tài)環(huán)境的優(yōu)劣程度直接影響著金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的大小。防范金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，，不僅要加強(qiáng)金融系統(tǒng)的內(nèi)部監(jiān)管和完善市場(chǎng)機(jī)制，更要對(duì)其賴以生存和發(fā)展的外部環(huán)境加以綜合考慮。良好的金融生態(tài)環(huán)境和建立健全的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警機(jī)制是防范和化解金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要保證。昆明以建設(shè)成為中國(guó)面向東南亞、南亞區(qū)域性國(guó)際金融中心為目標(biāo)，以推動(dòng)泛亞金融產(chǎn)業(yè)中心園區(qū)建設(shè)和區(qū)域性跨境人民幣金融服務(wù)中心建設(shè)為重點(diǎn)，為了實(shí)現(xiàn)這一發(fā)展目標(biāo)，昆明市政府高度注重金融生態(tài)環(huán)境建設(shè)和金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理。如何防范、化解金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，將危機(jī)爆發(fā)的可能性降到最低水平，引導(dǎo)金融業(yè)安全穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，是擺在昆明面前的一大難題，而建立科學(xué)合理的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警機(jī)制能夠有效解決這一難題。 基于此，本文從金融生態(tài)環(huán)境視角建立金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警機(jī)制，首先搭建昆明金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警研究框架，揭示金融生態(tài)環(huán)境對(duì)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的作用機(jī)理；然后在綜合分析昆明金融生態(tài)環(huán)境下潛藏金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上，選擇了一套數(shù)量適當(dāng)而又能夠最大限度刻畫經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況、金融發(fā)展、誠(chéng)信與法治和政府行為的指標(biāo)體系，并科學(xué)合理設(shè)定金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)臨界值和評(píng)判標(biāo)準(zhǔn)；其次運(yùn)用層次分析法、熵值法、BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)建立、訓(xùn)練、檢驗(yàn)昆明金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型，并結(jié)合二次指數(shù)平滑法預(yù)測(cè)未來兩年內(nèi)的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況；最后提出建立健全昆明金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警機(jī)制的對(duì)策建議。本文研究預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示2012年和2013年的昆明金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度分別為0.1039和0.0877，呈現(xiàn)出藍(lán)燈，表明未來兩年昆明金融運(yùn)行處于一個(gè)安全的范圍內(nèi)。
[Abstract]:The degree of financial ecological environment directly affects the size of financial risk. To prevent financial risks, we should not only strengthen the internal supervision of the financial system and perfect the market mechanism, but also give comprehensive consideration to the external environment on which the financial system depends for its survival and development. A sound financial ecological environment and a sound financial risk warning mechanism are important guarantees for preventing and defusing financial risks. Kunming aims to become a regional international financial center for China in Southeast Asia and South Asia, with a focus on promoting the construction of a pan-Asian financial industry center park and a regional cross-border RMB financial service center. In order to achieve this development goal, Kunming government attaches great importance to the construction of financial ecological environment and financial risk management. How to prevent and defuse financial risks, reduce the possibility of crisis to the lowest level, guide the safe and stable development of the financial industry, is a big problem in front of Kunming. The establishment of a scientific and reasonable financial risk warning mechanism can effectively solve this problem. Based on this, this paper establishes financial risk early warning mechanism from the perspective of financial ecological environment. Firstly, it sets up the research framework of Kunming financial risk early warning, and reveals the mechanism of financial ecological environment acting on financial risk. Then, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of latent financial risks in Kunming financial ecological environment, this paper chooses a set of index system which can describe economic situation, financial development, honesty, rule of law and government behavior. And scientifically and reasonably set the financial risk warning index critical value and evaluation standard; Secondly, using AHP, entropy method, BP artificial neural network to establish, train, test Kunming financial risk early warning model, and combined with quadratic exponential smoothing method to predict the financial risk situation in the next two years. Finally, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to establish and perfect the financial risk warning mechanism in Kunming. The financial risk level of Kunming in 2012 and 2013 is 0.1039 and 0.0877 respectively, showing a blue light, indicating that Kunming financial operation is in a safe range in the next two years.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.7

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