【摘要】：目的對(duì)廣東省時(shí)空模型試點(diǎn)縣區(qū)在預(yù)警閾值調(diào)整前后的時(shí)空模型和時(shí)間模型的預(yù)警效能進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),了解時(shí)空模型的預(yù)警效能是否更優(yōu)。方法對(duì)2008年4月21日-2012年12月31日廣東省時(shí)空模型試點(diǎn)縣區(qū)的時(shí)空模型和時(shí)間模型的靈敏度、特異度、及時(shí)性和熱點(diǎn)定位進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。結(jié)果預(yù)警閾值調(diào)整前,時(shí)空模型與時(shí)間模型的靈敏度分別為67.74%和35.48%(χ2=12.917,P0.01),特異度分別為20.25%和8.23%(χ2=28.063,P0.01),及時(shí)性M分別為-0.49 d和1.65 d;預(yù)警閾值調(diào)整后,時(shí)空模型與時(shí)間模型的靈敏度分別為78.43%和43.14%(χ2=13.326,P0.01),特異度分別為31.82%和13.35%(χ2=34.325,P0.01),及時(shí)性M分別為-0.27 d和0.67 d;預(yù)警閾值調(diào)整前后,時(shí)間模型均無(wú)法從空間上識(shí)別熱點(diǎn)區(qū)域,而時(shí)空模型則可以發(fā)現(xiàn)空間聚集性異常。結(jié)論無(wú)論是預(yù)警閾值調(diào)整前還是后,時(shí)空模型的靈敏度、特異度、及時(shí)性和熱點(diǎn)定位均優(yōu)于時(shí)間模型;預(yù)警閾值調(diào)整后的時(shí)空模型的靈敏度、特異度、及時(shí)性和熱點(diǎn)定位均優(yōu)于調(diào)整前。
[Abstract]:Objective to evaluate the early warning effectiveness of spatio-temporal model and time model before and after threshold adjustment in Guangdong Province, and to find out whether the spatio-temporal model is more effective. Methods from April 21, 2008 to December 31, 2012, the sensitivity, specificity, timeliness and hot spot location of the spatiotemporal model and time model in pilot counties of Guangdong Province were evaluated. Results before the adjustment of early warning threshold, the sensitivity of time-space model and time model were 67.74% and 35.48%, respectively (蠂 ~ 2 ~ 2 ~ (12.917) P _ (0.01), and the specificity were 20.25% and 8.23% (蠂 ~ (2) ~ (2) ~ (28.063) P _ (0.01), respectively. The timeliness M was -0.49 d and 1.65 d respectively; The sensitivity of time-space model and time model were 78.43% and 43.14% respectively (蠂 ~ 2 ~ 2 ~ (13) 326 ~ (26) P _ (0.01), the specificity were 31.82% and 13.35% (蠂 ~ (2) ~ (34) ~ (325) P _ (0.01), respectively. Timeliness M was -0.27 d and 0.67 d respectively; Before and after the pre-warning threshold is adjusted, the time model can not identify the hot spot from the space, but the space-time model can find the anomaly of spatial aggregation. Conclusion the sensitivity, specificity, timeliness and hot spot location of the spatio-temporal model are better than that of the time model, both before and after the threshold adjustment. The sensitivity, specificity, timeliness and hot spot orientation of the model are better than those before adjustment.
【作者單位】： 廣東省疾病預(yù)防控制中心公共衛(wèi)生應(yīng)急部;
【基金】：廣東省“十二五”醫(yī)學(xué)重點(diǎn)學(xué)科(公共衛(wèi)生應(yīng)急管理) 廣東省醫(yī)學(xué)科研基金項(xiàng)目(C2013003)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：R181.82
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本文編號(hào)：2388806